DARFUR: SOUTHERN SUDAN VP WARNS THAT DARFUR

C O N F I D E N T I A L KHARTOUM 002464 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR A/S FRAZER, NSC FOR COURVILLE AND SHORTLEY E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/06/2026 TAGS: PREL MARR SU UG CG SUBJECT: DARFUR: SOUTHERN SUDAN VP WARNS THAT DARFUR ENDANGERS COMPREHENSIVE PEACE AGREEMENT REF: A. A.) KHARTOUM 2426 ¶B. B.) KHARTOUM 2443 ¶C. C.) KHARTOUM 2425 Classified By: CDA R. Powers, Reason: Section 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) In a wide-ranging discussion September 29, Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS) Vice President Riek Machar warned flatly that "Darfur can destroy the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA)." Machar spoke to Sudan Programs Group (AF/SPG) Director Lauren Landis, who was visiting Juba. Sudan President Omar el-Bashir's angry rejection of UN deployment in Darfur is echoed in a growing belligerence toward his CPA partners in the South, Machar said. Landis heard a similar message from GoSS President Salva Kiir (Ref. A). ¶2. (C) The Sudanese Peoples' Liberation Movement (SPLM) was forced to take a public stand in favor of the deployment of UN forces in Darfur, Machar explained, after Bashir's heated public statements that deployment threatened Sudanese sovereignty. Machar complained that Bashir at no time consulted with SPLM members of the Government of National Unity (GNU). (Separately, GoSS Minister of Regional Cooperation Barnaba Marial Benjamin told CG James that Bashir simply announced the policy at the end of a Council of Ministers meeting, which he attended, without allowing SPLM representatives or others a chance to discuss.) ¶3. (C) Machar complained that "the national cake which should be used for development is being spent on a war in Darfur." Half of "southern" oil revenue is remitted to the north, he said, "and that money funds the war." The GoSS is also worried about the potential movement of displaced persons from Darfur into southern Sudan (Ref. B),which would pose an immediate humanitarian burden, exacerbate ethnic tensions, and complicate voter registration and balloting in elections expected in 2008. American sanctions are already exacting an economic toll on southern Sudan, Machar continued. Should Sudan's war in Darfur lead to additional sanctions by the international community, he said, the south would suffer more than the north. ¶4. (C) The Darfur Peace Agreement (DPA) "has not brought peace," Machar noted. He urged a resumption of contacts between the GNU in Khartoum and other armed groups (OAGs), particularly on the issue of "compensation." (Note: Machar told CG earlier that the compensation envisioned was not individual but rather area development. End Note). The GoSS could help facilitate such contacts, he added, but the GNU has shown little interest. Nor has the GoSS made much progress toward bringing together the non-signatories to the DPA, although it is committed in principle to doing so, Machar said. Machar recommended that the DPA be "reviewed" but not replaced. ¶5. (C) Even without Darfur, Machar said, there are growing problems with CPA implementation. Bashir's refusal to accept or act on the recommendations of the Abyei Border Commission is worrisome, according to Machar, because Abyei could bring neighboring states "into war." Bashir's approach to Abyei is also indicative of his government's commitment to the rest of the CPA. The North-South ad hoc Border Committee is being starved of funds by the national government, Machar claimed, and failure to resolve border issues will have a direct and negative impact on troop re-deployment, census-taking, and voter registration. In other areas, such as formation of the Joint Integrated Units (JIUs),Machar said there has been adequate progress. But the overall record is not good, the Vice President concluded, and the prospects for successful implementation of the CPA are growing more and more uncertain. ¶6. (U) SPG Director Landis was not able to review this cable prior to departing Sudan October 1. Her discussion with Machar on GoSS-brokered peace talks with the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) is reported separately (Ref. C). HUME