DARFUR: MEETING WITH EU'S HAAVISTO

C O N F I D E N T I A L KHARTOUM 002427 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF/SPG AND AF/SE NSC FOR COURVILLE AND SHORTLEY E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/02/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL SU UN EU SUBJECT: DARFUR: MEETING WITH EU'S HAAVISTO REF: KHARTOUM 02419 Classified By: DCM R. Powers, Reason: Sections 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: In an October 2 discussion with CDA Hume, EU Special Representative to Sudan Pekka Haavisto described his recent meetings in Asmara with rebel leaders and Eritrean officials; the Sudanese government's internal divisions and its refusal to negotiate with the international community; and the visit of European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso to Sudan. End summary. -------------- REBELS FRACTURED BUT CAPABLE -------------- ¶2. (C) During his October 2 meeting with the CDA, Haavisto summarized his meetings in Asmara the previous week. Eritrean officials told Pekka that the rebel groups have the capacity to take control of several major cities. Haavisto said the Eritreans supply weapons to the groups and thus have a good idea of their abilities. If this occurred, the Sudanese government would retaliate in the internally displaced persons camps, the conflict could spread to Kordofan, and the country would be "split." According to Haavisto, the non-signatories remain fractured. Abdulwahid Al Nur has allied himself with the National Redemption Front (NRF),with which he plans to issue a joint statement in the near future. Ahmed Abdulshafi is vacillating between joining the NRF and pursuing discussions on "DPA plus," presumably the Darfur Peace Agreement (DPA) with a supplement to address compensation and Janjaweed disarmament. -------------- NCP INTRANSIGENCE -------------- ¶3. (C) Haavisto said that Presidential Advisor Mustafa Osman Ismail, who was also in Asmara, admitted that there are fissures within the National Congress (NCP) Party leadership on whether to pursue a military option or to negotiate. Haavisto noted that the Sudanese government has not empowered an interlocutor with the international community. He pointed to Vice President Ali Osman Taha's refusal to take phone calls from EU Foreign Policy Chief Javier Solano, and President Bashir's refusal to meet with Solano at the UN General Assembly in September. The Sudanese government has also deemed the former foreign minister of Mauritius, nominated to replace Baba Gana Kingibe as African Union (AU) special representative, an "American spy." -------------- BARROSO'S VISIT -------------- ¶4. (C) According to Haavisto, Barroso assured Bashir during their meeting on September 30 that the international community had no hidden agenda behind UN Security Council Resolution 1706, but Bashir kept to his firm rejection of UN forces (reftel). Barroso also met with Senior Assistant to the President and SLM leader Minni Minawi and a "large entourage." Minawi emphasized that he needed international support to shore-up his base and to demonstrate the benefits of the DPA to the other non-signatories. Haavisto said that Barroso's visit to El Fasher and meetings with the AU underscored AMIS' limitations. HUME