SPLM PARTY DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY - EXPAND LINKAGES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 002344 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/25/2016 TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM SU SUBJECT: SPLM PARTY DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY - EXPAND LINKAGES AND KEEP UNITY ¶1. (C) Summary: Senior SPLM members say they are focused on expanding the party by reaching out to the Mesiriya in Abeyi, Nubans in South Kordofan, and groups in Darfur where they see party support growing. Some SPLM leaders discreetly are exploring the possibility of a trilateral dialogue ) SPLA, South Africa,s ANC, and the NCP ) to address Darfur issues. GoSS President Salva Kiir is skeptical, and has yet to bless this initiative. The SPLM is worried about the potential for violent sparks between the Dinka and SAF soldiers in Abyei to reignite the war. The SPLM is grappling with continuing the practice of nominating a slate of ministerial candidates vice individual vettings by Parliament. Kiir is seeking to avoid any actions that would facilitate party divisions. CG urged a more robust Avian Influenza response. End Summary. -------------- - SPLM Officials Describe Efforts to Build Party -------------- - ¶2. (C) During a dinner hosted by CG at her residence on September 19 with SPLM Secretary General Pagan Amum, Acting Minister for Regional Cooperation Dr. Cirino Hiteng Ofuho, and Minister for Information, Radio, and Television Dr. Samson Lukare Kwaje, discussion focused on the SPLM,s efforts to build the party and forge linkages with other groups nationally. Cirino said the SPLM is very popular in Abyei and the Nuba Mountains, and has support elsewhere in South Kordofan, which the party intends to build on. He also noted that there is a brewing conflict in the Nuba Mountains over the governorship of South Kordofan State, which SPLM holds at present pursuant to the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). The National Congress Party (NCP) currently holds the position of speaker of the State Assembly; the party looks forward to its 18-month rotation of the governorship as well, which will commendence in early 2007. Minister Samson conceded that the SPLM had not used the South Kordofan governorship effectively, but indicated that SPLM was not prepared to give it up. -------------- -------------- Interest in Trilateral Dialogue ) SPLM, ANC, and NCP -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) Cirino also told CG privately about efforts by some senior SPLM members to set up a &trilateral dialogue8 between the SPLM, South Africa,s ANC, and the NCP to help address Darfur, in response to questions on who in the region had influence with Khartoum. According to Cirino, President Mbeki has a good working relationship with Khartoum, where he has paid official visits regularly. The NCP respects South Africa,s accomplishments, and the ANC,s capacity building program with SPLM ministers has helped build strong ties between the two parties. While the idea of a trilateral dialogue has the support of SPLM Secretary General Amum, Kiir is not convinced of the wisdom of this idea yet, according to Cirino. The issue is still under discussion within the SPLM. -------------- -------------- SPLM ) High Hopes for National Assembly Elections -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) Pagan said he believes the SPLM will win a majority of seats in the 2008-2009 National Assembly elections. He is pleased with the International Republic Institute,s capacity building program for the SPLM, and spoke highly of the recent U.S. communications training program in which he recently participated. The Secretary General also confided, however, in a separate discussion that he would vote for Southern separation at this point. -------------- SPLM Aware of Dinka/SAF Tensions -------------- ¶5. (C) The SPLM is concerned about the potential for escalating violence in Abyei as a result of Dinka and Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) fighting. There have reportedly been attacks on SAF soldiers in the sensitive area, wherein the Abyei Boundaries Commission findings are yet to be implemented 14 months following their presentation to the Presidency. It would only take &10 to 20 Dinka to kill some SAF soldiers8 to provoke a major SAF retaliation and &reignite war8 in the area, according to interlocutors. -------------- SPLM Debating Ministerial Selection Process -------------- ¶6. (C) The SPLM members noted some internal party discussion about the wisdom of continuing to present a slate of ministerial candidates for parliamentary approval, as provided for in the Southern Sudan Constitution. Some KHARTOUM 00002344 002 OF 002 parliamentarians are pressing for the freedom to reject unacceptable candidates. There is also a concern that the practice of having ministers as members of Parliament is stifling dissent in the legislature. Members are reluctant to criticize the executive branch for fear of losing party status and favor. Kiir reportedly does not want a system of individual confirmations of ministers because of the potential to create party divisions. -------------- CG Calls for Action on Avian Influenza -------------- ¶7. (C) CG noted the need to increase activism in the Ministry of Animal Resources and Fisheries and the Ministry of Health to address the Avian Influenza outbreak in Juba, and expressed the readiness of USG and others to provide assistance. The SPLM members appeared to take that message on board. HUME