DPA STAKEHOLDER,S MEETING: PROGRESS NON-EXISTENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 002142 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR A/S FRAZER, NSC FOR COURVILLE AND SHORTLEY E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/06/2026 TAGS: PGOV PREF PHUM KPKO SU AU SUBJECT: DPA STAKEHOLDER,S MEETING: PROGRESS NON-EXISTENT AS VIOLATIONS MOUNT REF: A. A.) KHARTOUM 2116 ¶B. B.) KHARTOUM 2113 Classified By: CDA CAMERON HUME: REASON: SECTION 1.4 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (C) Summary: During a September 5 Darfur Peace Agreement stakeholder's meeting, Sudanese Liberation Movement (SLM) leader and Senior Assistant to the President Minni Minawi decried alleged breaches of the DPA in recent weeks, blaming both the National Redemption Front (NRF) and the Government. Minawi accused the Government of several violations, including the announcement dismissing the African Union Mission in Sudan (AMIS) by September 30; the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) military offensive in Darfur; and failure to disarm the janjaweed. If there is no verifiable disarmament of the janjaweed, Minni said, there would be no further implementation of the DPA. Minawi stressed that AMIS must remain in Darfur to safeguard the DPA. Despite delays, Minawi is pressing forward with formation of the Transitional Darfur Regional Authority (TDRA). Minawi predicted non-signatories in both Darfur and Asmara would join the DPA within weeks. End summary. -------------- DPA VIOLATIONS -------------- ¶2. (C) Minawi convoked foreign embassy representatives September 5 to discuss the status of the DPA. Minawi condemned several alleged violations of the DPA by both the Government and NRF (Ref a). The Government's announcement dismissing AMIS from Darfur, the ongoing SAF military offensive, and the failure to disarm the janjaweed all constituted violations of the DPA. Without verifiable disarmament of the janjaweed, the DPA will grind to a halt, Minawi said. In order to safeguard the agreement, AMIS must remain in Darfur. The Government's actions at El Fasher University (Ref b) on September 4 also represented an "atrocity." The Government organized anti-UN demonstrations, and, when students refused to participate, the police were sent. The demonstrations were not an expression of the will of the people of Darfur. Minawi demanded an immediate Joint Commission investigation. ¶3. (C) Minawi also condemned the NRF, in particular for attacks in SLM-controlled areas. The Government is using the NRF as an excuse to deploy an additional 10,500 troops to Darfur, a clear violation of the DPA. The Government, he charged, is taking advantage of the silence of the international community. The violations of the DPA will not stop until the actions of both the Government and NRF are denounced. Minawi asked several times what the position of the international community was with respect to violations of the DPA and alternatives if AMIS departs Darfur. Minawi confirmed that the tenure of AMIS was not on the agenda of the Council of Ministers meeting on September 3. -------------- DPA NON-SIGNATORIES -------------- ¶4. (C) Minawi, assisted by the UN, has sent a delegation to North Darfur to convince non-signatories to join the DPA. Minawi reasoned that if remaining holdouts could be persuaded to join, the Government would have no justification for using military force. Minawi hoped for a positive decision within days. Minawi also referenced First Vice President Kiir's efforts to convince Ahmed Abdul Shafi and Abdul Wahid to join the DPA. Likewise, he predicted both would join the DPA within the next few weeks. Minawi efforts to sway internally displaced persons (IDPs) in the camps are also beginning to bear fruit. -------------- DELAYS IN TDRA -------------- ¶5. (C) Minawi also lamented the delay in formation of the TDRA; regardless, he continues to push forward. Minawi has submitted a proposal for the structure of the TDRA, but it is now up to the President to decide. He requested a meeting with President Bashir two weeks ago to discuss the issue, but has heard no response. In the coming days, Minawi will formally announce the formation of the various commissions which make up the TDRA. -------------- GNU ACTIONS: CONFUSED, INCONSISTENT -------------- KHARTOUM 00002142 002 OF 002 ¶6. (C) CDA Hume said the Government's actions were at times difficult to understand. He cited the Government's security plan for Darfur, which was submitted to the UN Secretary General. Hume contrasted this approach with the Government of Sudan's reluctance to engage the UN on clear NRF violations of the DPA. While most governments drew attention to such aggression, the Sudanese refused to talk to the UN and then questioned its silence. Hume reminded those in attendance that the U.S. condemned the July NRF attack on Hamrat al-Sheikh in North Kordofan state. ¶7. (C) Hume also cited several different stories in the September 6 press: one reported the Government's decision to expel the AU; another said the Government requested the AU stay; and a third reported the SPLM, a partner in the Government of National Unity (GNU),favored a transition to a UN peacekeeping operation. Likewise, the Government seems conflicted with regard to efforts to bring onboard non-signatories to the DPA. There is a significant level of turmoil in the Government, and it is hard to predict how it would play out. The international community would likely see continued backpedaling, confusion, and inconsistency. Hume stated the position of the U.S. Government: Sudan must move forward with the UN; the U.S. witnessed and supported the DPA and did not support efforts to replace it; and AMIS had performed well, but it was time to transition it to a UN force. ¶8. (C) Other speakers agreed that verifiable janjaweed disarmament was a pre-condition for real movement on the DPA; disapproved of the cancellation of the September 7 Joint Commission meeting in Addis Ababa; called for mechanisms to keep non-signatories involved in both the Cease Fire Commission (CFC) and Joint Commission; decried the exclusion of international community represenhativJs i. sector-level CFC meetings; called for quick establishment of the Preparatory Committee of the Darfur-Darfur Dialogue and Consultation; and noted that, while half-complete, further baseline studies of the Darfur Joint Assessment Mission could not proceed due to insecurity. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (C) Minawi's growing frustration over blatant Government violations of the DPA and lack of progress on janjaweed disarmament were evident. He is becoming ever more concerned with the likely departure of AMIS in the coming weeks, the SAF offensive, and long-term prospects for DPA implementation. Minawi is also increasingly animated by what he perceives to be the silence of the international community on Darfur. End comment. HUME