SLM/MINAWI ADVISORS WARN OF FIGHTING IN DARFUR

C O N F I D E N T I A L KHARTOUM 002023

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF A/S FRAZER
NSC FOR COURVILLE AND SHORTLEY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/24/2026
TAGS: PGOV PREF PHUM SU AU
SUBJECT: SLM/MINAWI ADVISORS WARN OF FIGHTING IN DARFUR


Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES CAMERON HUME; REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) On August 25 senior SLM/Minawi advisers told CDA Hume
that fighting may escalate in Darfur within two weeks. Dr.
Salah al-Haj Manna said that Presidential Adviser Majzoub Al
Khalifa had told him that all funding for SLM/Minawi,
including payments of subsistence bills for lodging in
Khartoum, would be withheld until Minni Minawi endorsed
President BAshir,s rejection of UN peacekeeping in Darfur.
Dr. Manna affirmed that he personally had paid hotel and food
expenses for Minawi,s presence in Khartoum. He said that
the lack of any support for the SLM/Minawi forces in the
field was having a much worse effect. Previously they had no
problem securing food, arms, and fuel by raiding government
stores, but since the DPA had been signed they had not done
this. The situation of the forces was becoming dire.


2. (C) Dr. Manna drew attention to Minawi,s press release of
August 24, in which the SLA accused the government of not
implementing the DPA. The press release: demanded that the
international community take a firm position on the problems
impeding implementation of the DPA; accused the NCP of not
cooperating in implementing the DPA; affirmed its own
commitment to the rule of law, democracy, and the building of
a new Sudan; and, confirmed its commitment to the DPA. The
SLA wanted a UN force in Darfur, but it expected the
international community to take action to bring this about.


3. (C) Hume asked how the SLM saw the prospects for
implementation of President Bashir,s security plan for
Darfur. Dr. Manna said that the government was actively
gathering its forces, including a large number of Popular
Defense Forces units. (Embassy comment: many are former
janjaweed now shifted to government payrolls. End comment.)
Either the National Redemption Front forces will try to move
south through the area east of El Fasher, where President
Bashir has said the army will &stop and destroy8 them, or
within two weeks the army will find a pretext to attack,
probably in the same area. Adviser Ali Traio added that if
SLM units do not join the fight on the side of the army,
there is a good chance that the army will attack them as
well. Dr. Manna said it would be difficult for SLM forces
without fresh supplies, but he predicted that the army would
be no more successful in 2006 than it had been in 2003 and

2004.


4. (C) Hume said that A/S Frazer would arrive on August 25
and had asked for a meeting with Minawi. Traio said that the
government,s threatening tactics had put the forces in the
field into a hard place; either they would get some basic
support or they would have to fend for themselves. Dr. Manna
said they would consult with Minawi on arranging a meeting
with A/S Frazer.
HUME