CENSUS ON TRACK BUT SANCTIONS COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS

UNCLAS KHARTOUM 001877 SIPDIS SIPDIS FOR D AND AF/SPG PLEASE PASS TO USAID/W USAID FOR DCHA SUDAN TEAM, AF/EA NSC FOR JMELINE, TSHORTLEY TREASURY FOR OFAC C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (PARA ONE ONLY) E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EAID PGOV PREF SU SUBJECT: CENSUS ON TRACK BUT SANCTIONS COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS REF: 06 KHARTOUM 00304 ¶1. Summary: The technical preparations for a national census are moving forward on schedule. The Director of the UNFPA office reports that UN agencies have raised the idea of a delay of one year to allow more southerners to return home (we argued against such a delay). The assistance provided by the U.S. Census Bureau receives praise from both northerners and southerners. Sanctions could potentially cause problems with completion of census and Embassy recommends that the Department act to assure that a waiver of sanctions be arranged for equipment and software needed for the census and for the subsequent preparations for elections. Action requested in para 6. End summary. ¶2. On July 26 and 27, Pol/Econ officer and FSN met with Prof. Awad Hag Ali Ahmed, Head of the Central Bureau of Statistics, and with Omer Ertur, Representative of the UNFPA country office to discuss progress on the census. The census is required under the CPA and is a necessary precursor to elections. UNFPA is the coordinator for the census, working with the Central Bureau of Statistics in the north and with the Bureau of the Census in the south. Current plan is for the census to be conducted from November 15-30, 2007 and basic results from the short form to be available about six weeks later. Preparations on Track, but Idea of Delay being Raised -------------- -------------- ¶3. Both Awad and Ertur confirmed that preparations for the census are proceeding apace. Staff is being trained in all areas of the country, equipment is being set up, vehicles are being delivered (50 cars were delivered last week to the south),and publicity campaigns organized. Both had praise for the work the U.S. Census Bureau has been doing. Cooperation between the Khartoum government and the Government of Southern Sudan (GOSS) has been surprisingly positive; probably the best example of cooperation in any CPA mandated activity. Both men agree that it will be technically possible to conduct the census in November 2007. However, Ertur stated that there has been some discussion among UN agencies of a delay of one year, from November 2007 until November 2008 in order to allow more southerners to return home to be counted in the south. ¶4. According to Ertur, the expectation of the GOSS is that the population of the south should be 6 to 8 million. He estimates that there are currently only about 5 million. Ertur expects that authorities in both the north and the south will attempt to boost the population totals for their respective areas. He speculated that the GOSS will find it advantageous to delay the census to allow resettlement to progress. Ertur asked what the U.S. reaction to a one-year delay would be. Poloff replied that is important to maintain the original schedule as set out in the CPA. (Comment: Poloff followed up with an email to reiterate this point.) Sanctions, Census and Elections -------------- ¶5. Both Awad and Ertur mentioned the possible impact of U.S. sanctions on the census. Software for the GIS database and mapping system is of U.S. origin and covered under sanctions. Ertur said the plan is for UNFPA to administer the software. However, he believes that at the conclusion of the census, UNFPA would presumably have to withdraw the database, complicating preparations for elections. It would be desirable for the GNU to acquire the database so that it could be used for election purposes. ¶6. Action request. Embassy recommends that, in order to avoid potential problems with sanction issues for the census and elections, Washington agencies establish a specific exemption of sanctions. We understand that the executive order 13067, establishing sanctions, is renewed annually in November. The renewal may be an opportunity to insert a specific paragraph allowing equipment and software for use in the census and elections. Language similar to that contained in 31 CFR chapter V part 528.523, which exempts food and medicine may be useful as a model. HUME