SUDAN - ROGER WINTER'S VISIT TO UPPER NILE AND

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 KHARTOUM 001755 SIPDIS AIDAC SIPDIS SENSITIVE STATE FOR AF/SPG, PRM, AND ALSO PASS USAID/W USAID FOR DCHA SUDAN TEAM, AFR/SP NAIROBI FOR USAID/DCHA/OFDA, USAID/REDSO, FAS C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (PARA MARKINGS) E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EAID PREF PGOV PHUM SOCI KAWC SU SUBJECT: SUDAN - ROGER WINTER'S VISIT TO UPPER NILE AND SOUTHERN BLUE NILE KHARTOUM 00001755 001.4 OF 004 -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Roger P. Winter, Special Representative of the Deputy Se Xcretary of State for Sudan, traveled to Upper Nile and Southern Blue Nile from June 26 to 30 to assess progress in implementing the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). Winter met the governors of Upper Nile and Unity states; the Deputy Governor of Blue Nile State; and four county commissioners of Ulang, Nasir, Akobo and Kurmuk counties. The trip revealed mixed progress in implementation of the CPA. Most positive was Unity State, where the strong governor has completed the change from National Congress Party (NCP) to Sudan People?s Liberation Movement (SPLM) authority in six months, and where people can see physical positive changes since the CPA ? heavy machinery working ? as well as enjoy the new freedoms of movement and expression that are palpable throughout the South. Most negative was Southern Blue Nile, where there are few visible changes between war and peace due to slow implementation of the CPA. End summary. -------------- Malakal -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Winter, accompanied by a USAID humanitarian program officer, traveled to Upper Nile, Jonglei, Blue Nile, and Unity states from June 26 to 30. The first meeting was in Malakal, capital of Upper Nile State, where Winter met Governor Dak Duop, several state ministers, one member of the state assembly, one member of the South Sudan Assembly in Juba, and the commissioners of Ulang and Nasir counties. Upper Nile is the only state in the South with a governor from the NCP. This meeting was notable for two things: the Governor?s refusal to say anything of substance in reply to questions about the status of implementation of the CPA, and a heated exchange between two officials over recent tribal violence and cattle looting that killed dozens of people. The state government appears to be functioning well under the power sharing arrangement of the CPA. Of the state?s eight ministers, six are from SPLM, one from the NCP, and one from another southern party. Power is similarly shared in the state assembly, and the 12 county commissioners are all SPLM. No revenue has yet come to the state, but they expect considerable resources from the wealth sharing agreement that will give the state government two percent of the state?s considerable oil revenue. ¶3. (SBU) The county commissioners from Nasir and Ulang said they have established the county governments from ex- SPLM and ex-Government of Sudan (GOS) administrations, disarmed civilians who were heavily involved in militia activities during the civil war, and are now promoting peace and reconstruction. The main problems are the needs of populations returning from the North and from Ethiopia. About half the people of these counties were displaced during the war, and lack of essential services and infrastructure, as well as resources to establish a government presence in rural areas where cattle looting and communal conflict persist. -------------- Akobo -------------- ¶4. (SBU) On June 27, Winter went to Akobo in eastern Jonglei County to attend a reconciliation meeting between two of Sudan?s most aggressive tribes, the Lou Nuer of Jonglei and the Murle of Pibor. Local authorities and community leaders are working hard to stop the cattle-looting and killings, but this is difficult without government structures and security forces in rural areas. Lack of water in the dry season causes cattle herds to congregate at permanent water sources where conflict often breaks out. Community leaders have agreed that people should return to their own tribal land after two decades of conflict that allowed strong groups to expand and displace weaker communities, but this is slow to happen because of lack of services ? especially year- round water sources ? and security forces in most rural areas. KHARTOUM 00001755 002.4 OF 004 -------------- Kurmuk -------------- ¶5. (SBU) On June 28, Winter traveled to Kurmuk, the SPLM administrative center for Southern Blue Nile State, and met the Deputy Governor and other officials who were gloomy in their assessment of implementation of the CPA in the state. The power-sharing formula ? 55 percent NCP, 45 percent SPLM ? has been implemented only at senior levels of the State Government ? ministers, state assembly, county commissioners ? but not for the general civil service. SPLM has appointed civil servants in its areas of administration, but they are not paid because NCP says they are not qualified. After 50 years of marginalization and 10 years of civil war, SPLM officials are understandably less qualified than NCP officials. No money has yet come through the Government of National Unity to the SPLM areas of the state except for salaries to top officials. The bright spot is that security arrangements are going well ? the Joint Integrated Unit is formed with 3,000 individuals from Sudan People?s Liberation Army (SPLA) and 3,000 from the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF),and salaries are paid. The state police force has been formed; 345 police from SPLM areas are now in Ed Damazine for training. ¶6. (SBU) Community reaction to the CPA is mixed in Southern Blue Nile. On the positive side, there is now freedom of movement and expression, and nobody is being arrested and imprisoned, a common occurrence during the war. On the negative side, people see very little change between war and peace. There have been no improvements in infrastructure and services ? the same non-governmental organizations (NGOs) are providing the same services as during the war. More health, education, and water facilities are needed, especially in the most war- affected areas where many internally displaced persons (IDPs) and refugees are returning. Civil service, police, and SPLA soldiers outside of the Joint Integrated Units are not being paid. The Deputy Governor provided two reasons for slow implementation of the CPA: First, the CPA requires many laws to be changed in Khartoum, and this is being done very slowly; second, the federal government is not committed to the special status of Blue Nile State under the CPA, which requires special financial help. ¶7. (SBU) The Deputy Governor said that Blue Nile State is divided into two: The GOS side has good infrastructure and is developed; the SPLM side has had no development since the British left in 1956, leaving it with poor infrastructure, low human capacity, and few income opportunities. International assistance should help redress the imbalances by going to the marginalized areas where the war was fought. The NCP controls the nation?s wealth and is in a strong position to win the elections. The Deputy Governor said the choice for Southern Blue Nile, which like South Kordofan has no option to secede, is bleak: Do we return to war? Or do we submit to another 50 years of marginalization, with no development? He called this a more sensitive time than during the war. The SPLM wants to change Sudan?s system of governance based on narrow ideology. A majority of Sudanese favor this, but the ruling party controls the wealth of the state, and the SPLM and other opposition parties control areas in the South, West, and East that are impoverished. -------------- Bentiu -------------- ¶8. (SBU) In Bentiu, the capital of Unity State, Winter met with Governor Taban Deng Gai and many state officials. The biggest problem facing the state is the large number of returning IDPs and refugees, mostly coming from the North on their own. The state has good roads built by the oil companies, but the main need is for increased services in the rural areas. Security in the state is good, except for small clashes over cattle at common water points and grazing areas. The SAF are withdrawing very slowly because Khartoum is reluctant to leave the oil fields, but this is expected to accelerate soon. The SPLA is now gathering at its new bases, which KHARTOUM 00001755 003.4 OF 004 DYNCORP is helping to build, including forces newly redeployed from Eastern Sudan. Police are functioning well, but are not yet paid and need training. The jails are filled with cattle looters, but there are no judges to process cases. Disarmament and demobilization is going very slowly ? nothing has come to the state yet from the national program; and the state has appointed people who have a work plan to deal with inter-clan violence and child soldiers within the state, but has no money yet to establish the office or start any activities. The state has not yet received its full share of the two percent oil revenue, although irregular payments have come from Khartoum and are used for infrastructure and to buy tractors for agricultural development. The impact of the oil companies is visible in the good roads and volume of heavy trucks bringing goods from Port Sudan. ¶9. (SBU) The SPLM has taken over the state authority according to the power sharing formula of the CPA under which SPLM gets 70 percent, NCP 10 percent, and other southern parties 20 percent. The SPLM has a huge membership still committed to transforming Sudan, but the challenge is how to keep them engaged in governance when there are few resources. The SPLM operates on membership fees and donations from friends, but cannot compete with the NCP, which has had 16 years of organization and state funding. Many people from Darfur and South Kordofan (Muglad, Babanusa) who like SPLM?s vision and program come to SPLM in Bentiu seeking guidance and support. SPLM is unable to respond properly because of lack of money. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Winter sought to understand how new governance structures are coming up under the CPA and to what extent the SPLM can still be the main agent of change so that Sudan becomes a stable democracy contributing to regional stability. No clear and uniform answer emerged from the trip. Prospects seem bleak in Southern Blue Nile, where there is no option to secede, implementation of the CPA is slow, and few peace dividends are visible. There is some progress in the three states of Greater Upper Nile ? new governance structures are established in centers and people are enjoying the new freedoms of expression and movement, but state revenue is not yet flowing, IDPs and refugees are returning to inadequate services, and rural areas lack law and order to contain inter-communal clashes over cattle that are still killing hundreds of people. The number of Sudanese- Americans who have returned on their own to help rebuild their communities was notable. Attending one meeting in Nasir was one individual from Omaha who is a member of the Upper Nile State assembly, one person from Minneapolis who is a payam (district) executive, and a third individual from Des Moines who is a church leader working on community development. End comment. -------------- USAID programs in areas visited: -------------- ¶11. (U) In Southern Blue Nile, USAID has increased its programs in recent years and funds the following projects: GOAL in primary health care since 1999; Samaritan?s Purse in the Kurmuk hospital, school construction, and food security since 2002; a land project since 2003 that helps local government and communities to make decisions over land use; Norwegian People?s Aid (NPA) in a food aid and agricultural recovery program since 2005; Mercy Corps in civil society program new in 2006; and the U.N. World Food Program (WFP) in food distributions, a new program in ¶2006. ¶12. (U) In the areas visited in the three states of Upper Nile, USAID partners are providing health care (Save the Children, World Relief); water (Pact); agriculture (NPA, Food for the Hungry International); livestock (Veterinaires Sans Frontieres); food aid (NPA, WFP);town sanitation infrastructure (DAI); and office renovation and communications equipment for county authorities (NPA). KHARTOUM 00001755 004.4 OF 004 STEINFELD