Sudan/Darfur - Minni returns to Darfur; meets

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001262 SIPDIS SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL EAID PREF PGOV PHUM SOCI KAWC SU SUBJECT: Sudan/Darfur - Minni returns to Darfur; meets Winter del; Trilateral Kiir/Minni/Abdul Wahid meeting planned -------------- -------------- Kiir, Minawi, and Wahid Plan Meeting in Southern Sudan -------------- -------------- ¶1. In a meeting with Roger Winter, Kate Almquist, and Brian D'Silva on Friday, May 26, First Vice President Salva Kiir reported that he had invited Abdul Wahid to meet with him somewhere in southern Sudan before May 31 to reiterate and urge Wahid to sign the DPA. Kiir also extended a meeting invitation to Minni Minawi during a phone call on May 26 to which Minawi immediately agreed. On May 27, Winter, Almquist, and D'Silva raised with Kiir the possibility of meeting with both Minawi and Wahid. All parties have now agreed to meet in southern Sudan on Wednesday, May 31. (Note: A National Congress Party (NCP) - Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) joint party meeting in Khartoum precludes the possibility of meeting prior to May 31. End note.) ¶2. Both Kiir and Minawi are firm about not reopening the Darfur Peace Agreement (DPA) to further negotiation. However, both parties aim to secure Wahid's support for the DPA in order to neutralize Fur discontent over the agreement. In private discussions with each of the three parties, Winter stressed the need to find a way to bring Wahid on board without altering the established agreement or negatively affecting Minawi, who already signed the accord. With or without Wahid, Minawi and Kiir both view the meeting as an important step in developing a collaborative relationship to work together to build a new, more democratic Sudan. Taken in this regard, opening this dialogue with Kiir will help Minawi prove to his constituents that signing the DPA was the right thing to do. (Please note: Plans for this trilat meeting should be closely held, and not shared liberally with foreign interlocutors in capitals. There is no need for a slew of onlookers to descend on Juba.) -------------- -------------- USG Delegation Rallies Support for DPA in North Darfur -------------- -------------- ¶3. Winter, Almquist, and D'Silva traveled to El Fasher, North Darfur, on May 28 to visit Ali Trayo, a key political advisor to Minawi, in a remote location northeast of Kutum. At the meeting, Winter and Almquist explained the DPA to approximately 50 SLA commanders and answered questions for almost three hours. Question topics ranged broadly from development and recovery concerns to what will happen to outliers after the AU's May 31 deadline to sign the DPA, what is the USG view of those who oppose the DPA, when will DPA implementation begin, and when will immediate tangible benefits - such as medical care for war wounded and military training for SLA combatants - be forthcoming. -------------- Minawi Returns to North Darfur -------------- ¶4. Minni Minawi returned to Darfur for the first time since signing the DPA on Monday, May 29. Arriving in style on a Libyan Airways A-300 airbus from Tripoli to El Fasher, Minawi and his delegation were met on arrival by the Wali of North Darfur, the AU Deputy Chief of Mission, representatives from UNMIS, and the USG delegation consisting of Winter, Almquist, and D'Silva. Despite the Wali's efforts to organize a "victory tour" for Minawi in El Fasher, Minawi insisted on only a brief greeting on the tarmac. He was then adroitly whisked away by the AU to the AMIS compound where he spent the night. On Tuesday, May 30, Minawi is expected to travel to several of his areas in North Darfur to begin explaining the DPA directly to his commanders and constituents. Winter and Almquist will accompany him for the day. -------------- -------------- USG Extends Support for DPA Implementation to SLM/Minawi -------------- -------------- ¶5. Meeting with Minawi on May 29, Almquist explained the USG's offer to the AU to provide two offices for the use of DPA signatories and to support overall implementation of the DPA in Khartoum and El Fasher. Minawi was particularly interested in the Khartoum office, as he and his representatives currently have no office space in the capital. Winter, Almquist, and D'Silva also visited a building which USAID/OTI partner Development Alternatives, Inc. (DAI) identified as a potential DPA KHARTOUM 00001262 002 OF 002 support office in El Fasher. Embassy RSO has approved the facility, and USAID is proceeding with plans to lease and refurbish the building. Dyncorp has requested permission to travel to Khartoum as soon as possible to begin work on the Khartoum office location. Additionally, Winter briefed Minawi on USG plans for Security Advisor Todd Wilson to arrive within the next week to provide security assistance and advice to the SLM. Minawi appreciated this offer of support and is eagerly awaiting Wilson's arrival. Modalities of security engagement with SLM/Minawi will need to be worked out upon Wilson's arrival in Sudan. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶6. SLM support for the DPA is extremely tenuous, even among Minawi's core. Minawi and Trayo both expressed significant concern about the AU's May 31 deadline for Wahid to sign the agreement - what actions will the AU Peace and Security Council take if Wahid still has not signed the DPA when this latest deadline passes? SLA commanders on the ground do not understand when the DPA goes into effect. If the AU keeps shifting the deadline, SLA commanders on the ground will find it harder and harder to understand why Minawi signed the DPA on May 5. Both Minawi and Trayo felt that instability will escalate if the AU again extends the deadline for Wahid to sign the accord. Minawi seriously considered traveling to Addis to address the AU Peace and Security Council directly on this point, although he will forgo these plans in order to meet in southern Sudan with Kiir and Wahid on May 31. ¶7. Minawi is frustrated at having lost considerable time in N'djamena and Tripoli before being able to return to Darfur. Despite some logistical challenges and ongoing ambiguity with the timing of the Minawi-Kiir-Wahid meeting, he has demonstrated decisiveness and command of his time and agenda. U.S. delegation is further impressed by the AU's handling of Minawi's return to El Fasher, ensuring Minawi's desires were not overtaken by the government's desire to "handle" him. The AU provided Minawi sanctuary and facilitated his plans as requested to ensure his safety and comfort while in El Fasher. STEINFELD