SUDAN: TOO EARLY TO SET DATE OF EASTERN FRONT TALKS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001008 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/SPG E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/27/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL ER SU SUBJECT: SUDAN: TOO EARLY TO SET DATE OF EASTERN FRONT TALKS Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Eric Whitaker, Reason: Section 1.4 (b) an d (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: In an April 25 meeting, Dr. Hassan Haj Ali, National Congress Party (NCP) Deputy General Secretary for External Relations, said that President Bashir and First Vice President Kiir would determine in early May the date of the GNU-Eastern Front negotiations and the composition of the GNU delegation. He added that some NCP elements believed that the USG would use the East as yet another conflict to prevent the upgrading of bilateral relations. He questioned whether there was an internal debate within the Eritrean government on upgrading relations with the GNU, citing the April 11 attack in Eastern Sudan. According to the Norwegians, Yassir Arman advised the Eastern Front to halt attacks in the East or face NCP withdrawal from negotiations. Ali also noted the NCP's concerns about the national political agenda of the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM). His observations about the role of Eritrea suggests that the NCP is more interested in cultivating an improved relationship with it than with the Eastern Front or to address the needs of the poverty-stricken residents of Sudan's East. End Summary. -------------- -------------- Ali: GNU Agrees to Asmara as Venue for Talks with Eastern Front -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) Dr. Hassan Haj Ali, NCP Deputy General Secretary of External Relations, opened the meeting by expressing Kamal Obied's (NCP Chair of the GNU East Committee) apologies for not being available to participate in the meeting, citing previous engagements. Ali said that the GNU and the Eritrean government had agreed to Asmara hosting, facilitating, and even mediating Eastern Front-GNU talks; however, it is too early to decide the exact dates for negotiations. He added that in early May, President Bashir and First Vice President Kiir would meet during an NCP-SPLM conference to discuss a variety of issues, including Sudan's East, and would decide on the date of the negotiations and the composition of the joint GNU delegation. Observers, he said, were not ruled out for the negotiations. Ali inquired whether the U.S. would be willing to provide support for the Eastern Front talks, such as it did in Abuja and Naivasha. Pol/Econ Chief said he would refer the matter to Washington, but he assumed a positive response would be received. -------------- Eritrea: Internal Debates on Sudan Relations -------------- ¶3. (C) For Eritrea to be viewed as a trustworthy mediator, the relations between the GNU and Eritrea must be upgraded, Ali said. He added that following the Eastern Front-JEM April 11 attack in Eastern Sudan, the GNU requested an explanation from the Eritreans. (Note: Separately, Norwegian First Secretary Asmund Skeie told POLOFF that Yassir Arman advised the Eastern Front to stop attacks in the East or face NCP withdrawal from the negotiations. End note.) Some in the GNU have begun to question whether there were divisions within the Eritrean government regarding improving relations with Sudan. Ali speculated that a Sudanese ambassador to Eritrea would be named in July, per the normal schedule of ambassadorial nominations, and expected that some of the important diplomatic posts, such as Washington, New York, London, or Cairo would be represented by the SPLM. Ali said that the GNU would do whatever was necessary to improve relations with Eritrea. -------------- No Improvement in GNU-USG Relations -------------- ¶4. (C) Some "elements" within the NCP believed that the bilateral relations between the GNU and the USG would not improve because of the East even after Darfur was solved, Ali said. He added that some believed this was a vicious cycle in which after one conflict was solved, the USG would demand another conflict be resolved to upgrade relations. Ali also noted the high degree of "local U.S. interest" in Darfur. Pol/Econ Chief emphasized that the GNU must move quickly to address tensions in the East, and that there should be no gap between resolving Darfur and dealing with the East. -------------- JEM: A National Political Agenda -------------- ¶5. (C) Ali said that the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) was expanding its platform to include a national political agenda, which was evident by JEM leader Khalil Ibrahim's KHARTOUM 00001008 002 OF 002 close relationship with Popular Congress Party (PCP) Chairman Hassan al-Turabi. To illustrate his statement, Ali contrasted the JEM with the other two rebel parties in Darfur, noting that the JEM tried to pressure the GNU by stationing itself in both East Sudan and Darfur. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) The GNU appears serious about negotiations with the Eastern Front. However, the primary motivation for negotiations appears to be to improve relations with Eritrea. STEINFELD