KING'S NEW YEARS' MESSAGE DISAPPOINTING

S E C R E T KATHMANDU 000971 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR S, D, P, SCA/INS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/14/2016 TAGS: PGOV PTER KDEM NP SUBJECT: KING'S NEW YEARS' MESSAGE DISAPPOINTING REF: A. KATHMANDU 807 ¶B. KATHMANDU 969 Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty. Reasons 1.4 (b/d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) The King's much anticipated New Year's speech on April 14 contained no concrete initiatives, but called on "all political parties to join in a dialogue, which we have always advocated, to bear the responsibility of and contribute towards activating the multiparty democratic polity." Party members were underwhelmed with the message, noting that it might have been received well months ago, but did not acknowledge the current pro-democracy demonstrations throughout the county. The King focused on elections as the way forward, but did not announce dates for Parliamentary elections, thus avoiding what Party leaders had indicated would be a red line. However, the Parties did not feel the King had reached out to them and vowed to continue with their general strike and pro-democracy protest program, which they predicted would intensify April 15. One of the King's confidants who feared the message was "too little, too late" told the Ambassador of his plans to advise the King to act to follow up with the Party leaders within the next day or two. Party leaders have commented to the Ambassador that they would be willing to talk specifics if the King really were ready to turn over power. If not, the protests will likely gain momentum. End Summary. King Offers No Concrete Initiatives -------------- ¶2. (C) On the positive side, the King in his New Year's Message (Note: The Nepali Year is 2063) on April 14, called upon "all political parties to join in a dialogue, which we have always advocated, to bear the responsibility of and contribute towards activating the multiparty democratic polity." This could be interpreted to indicate a desire to turn power over to the political parties. However, he did not detail any concrete steps toward dialogue, and the government continued to detain hundreds of Party members and civil society activists arrested in demonstrations across the country over the past nine days. Focusing on elections as the way forward, the King stated "there should not be any delay in reactivating all representative bodies through elections," but did not announce dates for a Parliamentary election, a positive omission, since to announce election dates would have crossed a red-line for the Parties. While making no specific mention of Maoists, he noted that "all forms of extremism are incompatible with democracy." Restating his commitment to the constitution, and perhaps rebuking people for taking to the streets in violent protest, he stated, "democratic norms and values demand a commitment that the goals set forth by the Constitution of the Kingdom of Nepal-1990 can be achieved only through constitutional means." He also said, "democracy demands restraint and consensus." Top Party Leaders Disappointed, But Still Hoping -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) The prevailing initial reaction by the leaders of the main political parties in the seven-party alliance was disappointment. G.P. Koirala, Nepali Congress (NC) President, told the Ambassador that he was "disappointed" that the speech did not lay out a gameplan for the way forward. However, he indicated a willingness to talk if the King was serious about handing over power. Amrit K. Bohara, United Marxist Leninist (UML) Acting General Secretary, also lamented to the Ambassador that the King's message had no plan on the way forward, but admitted that the King's language was somewhat difficult to fully understand, as it could be interpreted in different ways. The UML leader noted that the seven-party alliance would attempt to meet soon to discuss how to react to the King's message as well as a way forward with the pro-democracy movement. Sher Bahadur Deuba, Nepali Congress-Democratic President, told the Ambassador that "nobody can be happy" with the King's message, as it offered no specifics. He raised the possibility that the text's line that political parties should "bear responsibility... of activating multiparty democracy" could mean that the King was ready to turn over power. Deuba stated that, if the King were really serious, then "we are ready to talk to him on how he can hand over power." However, he cautioned that the King's language was "vague." Deuba highlighted the large number of people demonstrating throughout the country, and warned that the Parties could not tone down the people's movement. He acknowledged that Maoists might be forcing some people to join the rallies, but he noted that those people supported democracy and not the Maoists. The way forward for the King, Deuba opined, was to hand over power to the Parties and then the Parties could talk to the Maoists and try to bring them back to the political mainstream. Indian Ambassador Shiv Mukherjee shared a similar sense of disappointment over the King's text. Advisor will Tell King To Act Concretely -------------- ¶4. (S) Prabakhar Rana, a confidant of the King, expressed to the Ambassador fears that the King's message would prove to be "too little, too late." Rana said he would call the King later in the day to urge "quick follow-up" with the parties to demonstrate seriousness. He indicated that the King should dispatch the Palace's Principal Secretary as an emissary to top Party leaders in the next day or two to stress to leaders that the King was serious about handing over power. Rana noted that the King's message failed to acknowledge the demonstrators out on the streets. Rana worried that while the parties currently had control of the demonstrations, he could not predict how much longer this would be true if the King did not follow up with the Parties. He noted that, unlike in 1990, today there was no Party leader with the vision and courage to read the King's speech and take the initiative to knock on the King's door to test his seriousness. Thus, creating dialogue was more difficult now than it had been in 1990. Ram Sharan Mahat, NC Joint Secretary, agreed that if the King were serious about SIPDIS reaching out to the Parties, he should start back-channel dialogue with top Party leaders. He stressed, however, that the Parties could not accept anything other than full reinstatement of Parliament as the people on the street were becoming more radical and the Parties could not contain the situation. Mid-level Party Cadre: Message "Meaningless"... -------------- -- ¶5. (C) Mid-level party cadre took a harder line than their top leaders against the King's message. Mahat told Emboff the statement was "inadequate," pointing out that the only positive thing was that the message contained nothing negative about the political parties. With a "stretch of imagination," he skeptically admitted when pushed, one could read that the King intends to turn over power to the political parties. However, he stressed that the King should have clearly said "state power belongs to the people." K.P. Oli, UML Central Committee member, termed the message "traditional," with "nothing in it." Minendra Rijal, Nepali Congress Democratic Spokesman, called the message a "non-starter." He complained that the King was continuing with his roadmap, which did not appear to include transferring sovereignty to the people. He added that the Parties had no sympathy for the Maoists, whom they wanted to see come to the mainstream. Chakra Prasad Bastola, NC Central Committee Member, commented that the message "did not encourage us." He explained that the people wanted to know what concrete steps the King proposed to return power to the people, but the message was only a "repetition" of past statements. ... King Out of Touch With Demonstrations -------------- ¶6. (C) All of the Embassy's interlocutors highlighted that the King seemed out of touch and "unconcerned" about the ongoing agitation in the streets of the capital and other major cities. Mahat commented, "this statement could have come at any time, and does not address the current situation." Bastola also noted that the message was "very insensitive to events in the country." ...Predict Protests Will Continue -------------- ¶7. (C) In tacit recognition that the demonstrations had gained momentum on their own, Mahat predicted that April 14 would be relaxed, as it was Nepali New Year's Day, but predicted the agitation would "restart" from April 15. Bastola predicted that agitation would flare up and that people who had been "sitting on the fence" would now "jump in" and join the demonstrations on the streets. Oli and Rijal also stated that the seven-party alliance pro-democracy program would continue, and Bohara noted that the seven-parties would meet in the near future to discuss the way forward for their pro-democracy movement. Bastola cautioned that people on the streets would not accept Palace-Party talks if the King did not go more than half way to reach out to the Parties. A former mayor of Janakpur, Dhanusa District, eastern terai, told us that the mood there was that the King's message was incomplete, with nothing new, and nothing to be happy about. He predicted that the pro-democracy demonstration "movement will become more aggressive." Government Holding About 700 Protesters -------------- ¶8. (C) The King's April 14 message came while the United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) reported that, as of the evening of April 13, the government was holding 564 people in Kathmandu on three month Public Security Act detention orders. The government was still deciding whether to charge an additional 200 newly-arrested individuals. OHCHR noted that the government had not given United Marxist Leninist Party leader M.K. Nepal, taken from house arrest into police custody on March 23 (ref A),access to a lawyer. However, the government did not prevent OHCHR representatives from visiting him. Emboffs reported no signs of demonstrations in the early hours of April 14, and the government-owned Rising Nepal Newspaper reported that the government had not issued a nighttime curfew in Kathmandu on April 13, for the first time since April 8. Comment -------------- ¶9. (S) By itself, King Gyanendra's New Year's Day message does not give the political parties enough to turn things around. Couched in ambiguity and elliptical prose, the message does not make clear that the King is willing to come more than halfway to meet the Parties in resolving the current crisis. The address might have been effective if it had been delivered a year ago, in that it calls for dialogue and agreement on multi-party democracy and hints at a willingness to surrender power. Things have moved on here, however; in order to calm things down in the streets, the parties will need to demonstrate to their followers that the King genuinely wants to hand over power. Not all is yet lost, however. The political parties remain fearful of losing control of the current movement to the Maoists and would prefer reconciliation with the King to a violent revolution. If the King in the coming days uses back-door channels to make clear to the parties that he is willing to surrender power, they will likely be eager to talk to him. But to achieve that and prevent the situation from spinning out of control, he must act fast. Text of King's New Year's Message -------------- ¶10. (U) The full text of His Majesty's message to the nation on the occasion of the New Year's Day 2063 is as follows: Begin text. Beloved Countrymen, On the occasion of the advent of the New Year 2063, we extend best wishes for peace, good health and prosperity of all Nepalese, living in the country and abroad. We appreciate the understanding and patience of the Nepalese people, conscientiousness of the civil servants and the perseverance, courage and discipline displayed by the security personnel during the past year. Democracy demands restraint and consensus as all forms of extremism are incompatible with democracy. While facing the challenges confronting the nation, democracy also emphasizes acceptance of the preeminence of the collective wisdom in charting a future course. Aware of our traditions and sensitivities, as well as the self-respect and self-confidence of the Nepalese people who have always remained independent throughout history, dialogue must form the basis for the resolution of all problems. We, therefore, call upon all political parties to join in a dialogue, which we have always advocated, to bear the responsibility of and contribute towards activating the multiparty democratic polity. We believe that there is no alternative to multiparty democracy in the 21st century and the verdict of the ballot alone is legitimate. It is our wish that in order to reenergize multiparty democracy, there should not be any delay in reactivating all representative bodies through elections. We are in favour of sustainable peace and the people's right to vote. Democratic norms and values demand a commitment that the goals set forth by the Constitution of the Kingdom of Nepal-1990 can be achieved only through constitutional means. It is, therefore, our desire that with the active participation of all political parties committed to peace and democracy, a meaningful exercise in multiparty democracy be initiated through an exemplary democratic exercise like the general elections. May the efforts at ensuring sustainable peace and meaningful democracy in the interest of the nation and people bear fruit during the New Year. May Lord Pashupatinath bless us all! Jaya Nepal! End text. MORIARTY