POLITICAL PARTY LEADERS HOPING KING WILL OFFER

C O N F I D E N T I A L KATHMANDU 000959 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR D, P, SCA E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/12/2016 TAGS: PGOV PTER PREL NP SUBJECT: POLITICAL PARTY LEADERS HOPING KING WILL OFFER OLIVE BRANCH IN NEW YEAR'S MESSAGE REF: KATHMANDU 944 Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty, Reasons, 1.4 (b/d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) In separate meetings on April 12, the Ambassador urged Nepali Congress (NC) President G.P. Koirala and CPN-UML Acting General Secretary Amrit Bohara and Central Committee Member Bharat Mohan Adhikari to respond positively if the King makes a good faith offer in his New Year's Message on April 14. The leaders all stressed that they would first have to hear the King's message before deciding how to respond. Koirala averred he could convince his party cadre and the other members of the seven-party alliance to respond positively if the King had a positive message. Koirala was more worried than the UML leaders that the current anti-Royal movement was spinning out of control, although the UML leaders acknowledged that Maoists had likely infiltrated the demonstrations and been involved in provoking violence. Koirala, Bohara, and Adhikari emphasized that the current movement was a seven-party alliance movement and were concerned about Maoist efforts to project it as a joint movement. The Party leaders raised the possibility of calling on the Maoists to declare a general cease-fire as a sign of support for the Parties' peaceful movement and in line with their twelve point understanding. The party leaders expressed appreciation for U.S. support, as demonstrated by public statements by Assistant Secretary Boucher and the Department Spokesperson. End Summary. Appreciation for U.S. Support -------------- ¶2. (C) CPN-UML Acting General Secretary Bohara stated he was thankful for U.S. support of the movement, noting that our public statements had deterred more repressive steps by the King and strengthened the pro-democracy movement. He asked that the Ambassador convey his appreciation to Washington. NC President Koirala said he was "very happy" about SCA A/S Boucher's statement in New Delhi and the Department Spokesperson's April 10 statement. He added that the U.S. position was very clear and the Parties had "no misgivings" about it. Movement Gaining Momentum; Getting Out of Control? -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) The UML leaders seemed buoyed by the success of the Parties' ongoing pro-democracy demonstrations and pointed out that the movement was gaining momentum each day. However, Koirala stressed how "very worried" he was the situation would get out of control. He opined that the situation was worsening every day and commented that the brutality of the security forces was "beyond imagination." While Koirala denied the possibility that Maoists had infiltrated the demonstrations, Bohara acknowledged that he could not rule out that possibility. He allowed that there were incidents where Maoists had thrown stones to incite violence. The Ambassador informed them that there had been four incidents when demonstrators had thrown bricks and stones at U.S diplomatic-plated vehicles. Koirala speculated that security forces were doing so to discredit the Parties' peaceful movement and provoke the international community. Bohara expressed his regrets and concern, assuring the Ambassador it was not the policy of the seven-party alliance and promised to look into it. Looking to King's April 14 New Year's Message -------------- ¶4. (C) The Ambassador urged the Party leaders to be willing to consider and respond positively if the King made a good, reasonable offer during his New Year's message on April 14. Koirala and Bohara both replied that they could not say how they would react, they would first have to hear what the King said. Koirala pointed out that a small offer would not suffice. However, if the King made a "credible, good offer" - with a "clear indication that the King is ready to restore the democratic process, and ready to give power back to the political parties," Koirala said he would be able to convince his party and the seven-party alliance of the need to take this opportunity. He added that the King could not just issue platitudes. Bohara said the seven party alliance was waiting to see what the King said, and explained that the movement could take a new shape. Bohara also indicated the King needed to answer a lot of questions, including taking steps to punish security personnel who took repressive measures against the Party demonstrators over the past week, releasing political detainees, and saying how he planned to address the Maoist problem. He stressed that the UML was "in the movement" for democracy and could not go back. However, he clearly signaled that the UML was in a "wait and see" mode. Koirala acknowledged that he could not predict what the King might say, but he was very worried that, if it were not good enough, it would be very difficult to control the situation. He lamented that his utility would end in that case. Parties to Maoists: No Joint Movement... -------------- ¶5. (C) Both Koirala and Bohara emphasized that they disagreed with the April 9 statement by Maoist leaders Prachanda and Baburam Bhattarai (reftel). Bohara explained that UML leaders were in communication with the Maoists and telling them that there could be no coordinated movement, or joint statement, until the Maoists "come to a peaceful place." He worried that the seven-party alliance had started the movement but now the Maoists were trying to take control, projecting an image that they had taken over. He said the UML had asked Koirala to issue a seven-party statement clarifying that the alliance disagreed with the Maoist statement. Koirala reiterated that he would not join hands with the Maoists while they had guns. He noted that he had said in April 10 interview with the BBC that the Maoists were not involved with the ongoing agitation, which contradicted Maoist spokesperson Mahara insisting that it was a joint program. ... and Possible Statement Urging Maoists to Call a Cease-Fire -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C) Seemingly in recognition of the Maoist threat, the Party leaders both discussed the possibility of a cease-fire. Koirala focused on the possibility that the Parties might call on both the government and the Maoists to negotiate a genuine, reciprocal cease-fire. He claimed that if the Maoists did not agree, they would be isolated and have no future. He also requested support from the international community if he made such a call. Bohara remarked that the Parties' successful mass movement had frightened the Maoists, who feared they would be sidelined. He commented that he had argued to Koirala that the seven-party alliance should press the Maoists to declare a cease-fire as a sign of support for the alliance and as part of the Parties-Maoist twelve point understanding. Bohara added that Koirala had suggested they wait a few days, until after the King's New Year's Day message. Contemplating Calling Off Nationwide Strike/Closure -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) The Ambassador pressed the party leaders to call off their nationwide general strike, now a week old. Both Koirala and Bohara acknowledged that the general strike was inconveniencing people and bore a political cost, even though it had been relaxed and more shops were open and vehicles on the roads. Bohara explained that the parties were not enforcing the strike. Koirala stated that the Parties were considering such an action, while Bohara explained that they were waiting to hear what the King said. Bohara noted that the alliance could not call off the strike while "party cadre were facing bullets and arrests in the demonstrations," but recognized that the strike was losing its effectiveness. Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) The Party leaders' different interpretations of the consequences of the movement gaining momentum - concern by Koirala, delight on the part of the UML leaders - nevertheless was balanced by a shared concern that they not be linked to the Maoists and concern about Maoist words and deeds. The Parties are also in a holding pattern, hoping that the King will make a positive enough gesture on April 14 to allow possible reconciliation. MORIARTY