MAOIST CALL KATHMANDU VALLEY-ONLY CEASE-FIRE

C O N F I D E N T I A L KATHMANDU 000895 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/INS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/04/2016 TAGS: PTER PGOV MOPS NP SUBJECT: MAOIST CALL KATHMANDU VALLEY-ONLY CEASE-FIRE REF: KATHMANDU 883 Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty. Reasons 1.4 (b/d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) On April 3, before the April 6-9 general strike and rallies planned by the seven-party alliance focused on the capital, the Communist Party of Nepal - Maoists announced a unilateral cease-fire for the Kathmandu Valley until further notice. Seven-party alliance leaders welcomed the "positive" news, but had hoped that the Maoists would call a nationwide cease-fire. The Maoists' claimed that the cease-fire would enable the Parties to gather peacefully and "expose" government plans to crackdown on peaceful protest using the pretext that the Maoists would infiltrate the Parties' peaceful protests. The Parties, however, worried that the government might still arrest Party activists and call a curfew. The government labeled the cease-fire a ploy, given continuing Maoist violence outside the capital, banned public gatherings inside the ring road in Kathmandu, and announced the renewal and enhancement of anti-terrorist legislation. End Summary. Maoists Announce Cease-fire in Valley -------------- ¶2. (U) On April 3, the Maoists issued a statement announcing a unilateral cease-fire in the Kathmandu Valley effective immediately. In the statement, Maoist leader Prachanda explained that the cease-fire was needed to support the seven party alliance movement in a peaceful manner, as requested by the Parties. He maintained that the move was taken to foil the government's efforts to thwart the capital-centered movement announced by the seven parties. "We announce the cessation of all military action in Kathmandu Valley effective from Monday (April 3) until further notice," stated Prachanda. The statement added that the announcement aimed to "expose an autocratic, feudal group that is conspiring to unleash military terror on peaceful demonstrations in the capital under the pretext of countering Maoist infiltration." Parties Welcome Cease-fire -------------- ¶3. (C) The seven-party alliance welcomed the Maoist declaration suspending armed hostilities in Kathmandu. Minendra Rijal, NC (D),told Emboff it was a "positive move," but noted that it was only in effect in the Kathmandu Valley, despite the Parties urging the Maoists to call a cease-fire nationwide to create a conducive atmosphere for pushing the ongoing peaceful movement to a further height. He noted that the cease-fire might force the government to hesitate arresting party leaders, though it was impossible to rule out the possibility that the government would still arrest leaders and call a curfew, and stop people from entering the Valley. K.P. Oli (UML) agreed that the Maoists should have called a nationwide cease-fire. Government Doubts Maoist Intentions, Clamps Down on Demonstrations -------------- ¶4. (C) Minister of State for Information and Communication Shrish Shumsher Rana stated that a Maoist cease-fire was only "strategy on the part of the Maoists8 and was not to be believed. "The Maoists made an agreement with the seven parties who announced their agitation in Kathmandu prior to their cease-fire,8 noted Rana. &We will watch the alliance's agitation in agreement with the terrorists with equal suspicion as we have watched the seven parties, agreement with the terrorists in New Delhi.8 The District Administrative Offices in Kathmandu and Lalitpur issued separate statements on April 4 banning public gatherings, rallies and sit-ins within the areas inside Kathmandu's ring road beginning April 5 and lasting until further notice. On April 2, Assistant Home Minister Sone Lal Yadav warned that the government would leave "no stone unturned" to suppress disturbances in the capital, including issuing shoot to kill orders if needed. Maoist Violence Outside Capital Continues -------------- ¶5. (U) On April 3, the Maoists abducted the president and vice president of the District Development Committee (DDC) of Panchthar District, in the hills of eastern Nepal. The National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) appealed for their immediate release. Also on April 3, in the central terai Nawalparasi District, Maoists seized about 15 vehicles, including trucks, buses and a government-owned van that was returning from delivering medicine to district health posts. Planning for April 6-9 Strike -------------- ¶6. (U) Party politicos continued to plan for their April 8 demonstrations to take place during the April 6-9 general strike. Oli told Emboff that the government was closely following him and all Party leaders, and so he could not rule out that the government would arrest politicians. He opined that the government might call a nighttime curfew, but doubted they would call a daytime curfew. Arjun Narsingh K.C. (NC) explained that the trade unions and others would join in the Parties' small demonstrations around the capital on April 8, stressing that the movement was "completely committed to peace." However, he added that if the government acted repressively it would be hard to control the anger and actions of Nepali youth. (Note: On April 3, eight student unions organized demonstrations in campuses in the capital, burning tires and shouting slogans against monarchy. Police lobbed tear gas shells to disperse the students; sixteen students and a dozen police personnel were injured in the clash. Student demonstrations continued April 4. Also on April 4, police arrested at least 30 political party members of the seven-party alliance from a protest rally in Kathmandu organized by the Nepal Sadbhavana Party (Anandi Devi) to gain support of the seven-parties' general strike set for April 6-9. End note.) The Parties announced that they would allow free movement of ambulances and diplomatic mission, media and human rights vehicles during the general strike. Government Renews Anti-Terrorist Ordinance -------------- ¶7. (C) On April 3, the government published the amended Terrorist and Disruptive Activities (Punishment and Control) Ordinance (TADO),reportedly adding new provisions that categorize activities of Maoist accomplices as "crime related to terrorism and disruption." (Note: We have not yet seen a copy of the revised ordinance. As no parliament is in session, all Ordinances must be renewed every six months. End note.) The anti-terrorism law now is said to make dissemination of Maoist-related information a punishable offense. The renewed TADO reportedly defined accomplices as those who remain in contact with the Maoists and help the rebels. The media speculated that people who supply information to the Maoists and/or disseminate Maoist information would be subject to arrest as accomplices. It was not clear whether political parties and the media fell within the new provisions of TADO, as some Ministers had publicly called the Parties "accomplices of the Maoists" for entering into the 12-point understanding with the Maoists in November 2005. The Representative of the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) in Nepal, Ian Martin, expressed serious concern over TADO. "OHCHR has many concerns about the use of the Public Security Act, as well as of TADO." "I regret," Martin was quoted as saying, "though we asked to be consulted on how TADO ought to be in line with human right standards, we have not had the opportunity." The Swiss donor mission privately expressed concern about the potential impact of the enhanced TADO ordinance on their ability to do development work in the countryside, given what they cited as the necessity of maintaining contacts with the Maoists in order to carry out projects. Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) The Maoists decision to respond to repeated calls from the Parties for a nationwide cease-fire with a cease-fire only inside the Kathmandu Valley looks to be a clear attempt to pressure the government and the Parties. The move undercuts the justification on the part of the government for cracking down on the demonstrators, while at the same time makes it considerably more difficult for the Parties to blame poor performance during the upcoming strike and demonstrations on the Maoists. That said, the Maoists have continued to keep open for themselves the option of large-scale attacks outside the Kathmandu Valley. MORIARTY