KING WORKING TO SPLIT ROYALIST PARTY

C O N F I D E N T I A L KATHMANDU 000080 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR SA/INS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/09/2016 TAGS: PGOV PTER NP SUBJECT: KING WORKING TO SPLIT ROYALIST PARTY Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty. Reasons 1.4 (b/d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Pashupati Shumsher Rana, Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) President, told the Ambassador that the King was "using the full resources of the state to break" the RPP, traditionally viewed as a pro-King party. Rana said that the King's goal was to use the RPP to field candidates in the February 8 municipal elections, then the Parliamentary elections, to claim legitimacy as a ruler. Rana commented that there was a "slim hope" that, following successful municipal elections, the King would feel he had shown the world that his path to restore democracy had worked, and would reach out to the seven-party alliance. However, Rana was not optimistic and admitted that he was "more and more" on the side of the people's movement against the King's February 1 step. End summary. Value of the Plow Symbol -------------- ¶2. (C) On January 6, Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) President Pashupati Shumsher Rana told the Ambassador that the King was "using the full resources of the state to break" the RPP party. He said that the King aimed to use the RPP to field candidates in the municipal election scheduled for February 8 under the RPP plow symbol, even though RPP had left it up to each local RPP district unit to decide if they would or would not participate in the municipal election. Rana said that with the participation of the RPP, in addition to that of the Nepal Sadhbhavana Party (NSP),the King could claim legitimacy by having two of the four major parties participate in the election. (Note: Under Neplai Law, a "major party" is one that gained more than three percent of the votes in the last parliamentary election. The four major parties are Nepali Congress, United Marxist Leninist, RPP and NSP. A faction of the NSP created a new party that does not plan to participate in the election. End note.) Rana explained that the RPP's plow symbol was nationally recognized; the King was orchestrating an RPP convention earlier than Rana had planned so that RPP pro-King candidates could be listed on the municipal ballot with the symbol. Rana said that candidates in each of the 43 districts with municipalities had to send letters to their district election commissions fifteen days before the election to have their name on the ballot with the RPP symbol. King's Autocratic Goal -------------- ¶3. (C) According to Rana there was a slim hope that, if municipal elections were successful, the King would feel he had shown the world that his plan to restore democracy had worked and reach out to the seven-party alliance. Rana explained that it might appeal to the King to seek accommodation with the NC party to try to split the seven-party alliance. However, Rana was not optimistic the King would reach out. He opined that the King's attempts to split the RPP were evidence of the King's autocratic intentions. Rana explained that he would fight the seven members of the RPP who had called for an early party convention and that the party would vote in the next few days to expel the three members who had taken positions in the King's Cabinet. However, Rana seemed to take as a foregone conclusion that the party would split at the scheduled January 15 convention and the King would get his wish to field candidates under the RPP banner. Rana said "in my case, I may lose" the RPP Presidency now, but he added, "when democracy returns, I will get it back." Rana noted that he would petition the election commission through the courts to disallow this action, but he had no confidence that the election commission would act independently. Rana speculated that the King would likely use RPP candidates again in a Parliamentary election to claim further legitimacy. He added that the King might use RPP members as part of an "all-party" government with a hand picked prime minister. Rana warned that such an all-party government would differ little from the Cabinet currently in place since the seven-party alliance would not join the King until and unless he reached out to the top leaders of the Parties. Parties' People's Movement -------------- ¶4. (C) Rana admitted that he was "more and more" on the side of the people's movement against the King's February 1 step. He noted the large numbers of people coming out to rallies in the countryside and said the UML expected large numbers on January 20 in Kathmandu. However, he worried that the only way to really disrupt the municipal elections was if the Maoists created "adequate violence." Rana was concerned that the Parties had tried to use the 12-point understanding to pressure the King, but that was not working. He said the UML desperately wanted to believe the Maoists sought to enter the mainstream. He added that now that the Maoists allowed UML cadre back in the villages, the UML was happy to find its organization was intact and even rejuvenated; the party was attracting back cadre that had left to join the Maoists. However, Rana cautioned that the Parties had not adequately addressed Maoist violence. Rana noted that India had a stake in the 12-point understanding as it was crafted in India. He commented that India's stance was confusing, perhaps because India feared the 12-point understanding was backfiring, or believed that it would have better luck controlling the Maoists than trying to control the King. Rana Acts Against Dissidents -------------- ¶5. (C) On January 8, the RPP sent letters to the seven central working committee members who had joined the Cabinet or called for an early convention to seek support for the King, asking for clarification within 24 hours and threatening action on the grounds of party discipline and statute if the members did not respond. RPP General Secretary Pandit charged Home Minister Thapa of abusing state SIPDIS resources to collect central council and convention members from districts. Quoted on the front page of the February 9 Kathmandu Post, Pandit claimed Thapa had directed Chief District Officers and Zonal Administrators "to fetch party members from mid and far-west regions at any cost and by helicopter for the convention." Meanwhile, the Rastriya Janashakti Party (RJP),an RPP pro-monarchy splinter party, announced on January 8 that it would not take part in the municipal election. Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) Although Rana might lose control of his party, the public dispute between its opposing factions, as well as the RJP's decision not to participate in the municipal elections, underlines the King's loss of support from his traditional base. We share Rana's skepticism as to whether the King will do the right thing and reach out to the seven-party alliance. MORIARTY