POLITICAL LEADERS CONSIDERING RECONCILIATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L KATHMANDU 000599 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR SA/INS NSC FOR RICHELSOPH E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/02/2016 TAGS: PGOV PTER NP SUBJECT: POLITICAL LEADERS CONSIDERING RECONCILIATION REF: A. KATHMANDU 552 ¶B. KATHMANDU 455 Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty, reasons 1.4 (b/d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) In recent meetings with political party leaders ranging from pro-royalist to democratic center to parliamentary left, the Ambassador pushed the need for reconciliation should the King reach out to the Parties. Narayan Khadka of the Nepali Congress-Democratic Party (NC-D) indicated the Parties were ready for reconciliation and raised the possibility of bringing in a mediator. He also stated the Parties needed to consider an exit strategy from their 12-point understanding with the Maoists. K.P. Oli, Central Working Committee Member of the United Marxist-Leninist Party (UML),did not rule out reconciliation, but lamented that reestablishing trust remained a major obstacle. He explained that the UML would like to hold constituent assembly elections involving the Maoists, which would result in the end of the King's autocratic rule. He also commented that his Party would welcome the restoration of Parliament by the King. NEPALI CONGRESS-DEMOCRATIC SEEKING MEDIATION WITH PALACE -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) In a February 28 meeting with the Ambassador, Narayan Khadka, former Central Committee Member of the NC-D, requested that the Ambassador act as a mediator to start dialogue between the seven-party alliance and the King to move toward the restoration of democracy. Khadka noted his approval of the Ambassador's February 15 speech stressing the urgency of reconciliation (ref A) and said that some members of the Parties had realized that the Parties were becoming increasingly marginalized the longer the stalemate with the Palace continued. After the Ambassador explained the difficulties of his acting as mediator, Khadka suggested NC leader K.P. Bhattarai and Pashupati Rana, President of the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP),as possible mediators. He commented that the Parties would be comfortable with either individual. He also mentioned former Prime Minister Lokendra Bahadur Chand (RPP),but did not comment on whether he thought the Parties would be comfortable with that choice. Khadka stressed that, because K.P. Bhattarai was elderly, he would have to be given a limited role with clear instructions and goals in order to succeed. Khadka suggested that Bhattarai's mediation goals could be to negotiate with the King to restore Parliament while finding an honorable "soft landing" for the King. The Ambassador undertook to find ways to explore with the King the possibility of identifying a mediator the King could trust to begin dialogue with the Parties. PARTIES CONSIDERING EXIT STRATEGY FROM 12-POINT UNDERSTANDING -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) Khadka stated that the NC-D, Nepali Congress (NC),and UML agreed on the need for the Parties to have an exit strategy from the 12-point understanding. Khadka remarked that pressure was building on the Parties to take a stance on the 12-point understanding in light of increased Maoist violence. He commented that if UML President M.K. Nepal were released, the UML leader could discuss with NC-D President Sher Bahadur Deuba and NC President G.P. Koirala what action to take regarding the Maoists. Khadka noted that the Parties could try to give the Maoists an ultimatum to stop their violence before deciding to execute an exit strategy out of the 12-point understanding. He added that K.P. Oli feared that there was no safe way out of the 12-point understanding for the Parties. RECONCILIATION AN AFTERTHOUGHT FOR UML -------------- ¶4. (C) K.P. Oli, Central Committee Member of the United Marxist-Leninist Party (UML),in a March 1 meeting with the Ambassador, expounded on his distrust of the King and the need to end the King's autocratic rule and re-establish Parliament. As if an afterthought, Oli said the UML remained "open to the possibility" of reconciliation between the King and Parties. He suggested that the UML could embrace the restoration of Parliament by the King, which would result in Parliament deciding on a new Prime Minister and removing the King from power. Oli stressed to the Ambassador the UML's desires to "rectify" the Maoists by bringing them into the democratic process through constituent assembly elections. Those elections would likely result in a democratic republic or a constitutional monarchy in which the King played only a ceremonial role, thus ending the autocratic monarchy. Oli was confident that the Maoists would lose in a constituent assembly election and would not return to violence afterward. He added that the Maoists must be pressured to meet their commitments to give up arms and come into the mainstream. The Ambassador cautioned that the Maoists had indicated they would ultimately keep their arms and seek to rule the country by force. Oli argued that if the Maoists came to power militarily they would not be able to maintain control for more than three months, after which time democratic forces would prevail. The Ambassador commented that he thought the Maoists would be able to stay in power and stressed that Maoist rule would be devastating for the Parties and Nepal. ROYALIST PARTY ALSO FOR MEDIATOR -------------- ¶5. (C) In a separate February 28 meeting, Pashupati Rana, head of the Rana faction of the RPP, traditionally a Royalist party, also stressed the need for reconciliation. Rana noted that although India was not ready to see anybody come in to play a role from outside, neither was New Delhi able to take on that role. He also suggested K.P. Bhattarai as a possible mediator, noting that the Parties recognized that he "could say no to the King." Rana added, however, that because of Bhattarai's poor health Bhattarai would need a good second person to assist him. In response to the Ambassador raising the suggestion that Rana himself act as the intermediary, Rana said that the King would have to be willing to talk with him. He explained that on February 25 he had put in his tenth request for an audience since February 1, 2005, none of which the King had yet granted. If the King were willing to talk with him, Rana believed he could serve as an intermediary because the Parties would trust him. Rana also shared a rumor that that the King could publicly state that he honored the February 13 Supreme Court decision that declared the Royal Commission for Corruption Control unconstitutional and limited the King's power (ref B),and then put forward somebody acceptable to talk with the political parties and the Maoists about a transition of power. COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) The idea of using a mediator indicates the Parties' growing desperation to find some way to persuade the King to back down. That said, none of the Embassy's interlocutors are able to readily identify somebody who would be acceptable to both the Palace and the Parties. Indications that the NC-D and NC feel pressure to start a reconciliation process and the need to have an exit strategy from the 12-point understanding are positive signs. The NC-D and UML acceptance of GP Koirala's position pushing the restoration of Parliament as an acceptable solution to the Party-Palace impasse shows that GP Koirala might be regaining his leadership role in the seven-party alliance. MORIARTY