NEXT STEPS FOR POLITICAL PARTIES?

C O N F I D E N T I A L KATHMANDU 000443

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SA/INS
NSC FOR RICHELSOPH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/14/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL NP
SUBJECT: NEXT STEPS FOR POLITICAL PARTIES?

REF: KATHMANDU 430

Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty. Reasons 1.4 (b/d)

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) In separate February 13 meetings with Khadga Prasad
Sharma Oli, central committee member of the Communist Party
of Nepal, United Marxist-Leninist (CPN-UML),and Surya
Bahadur Thapa, the Chairman of the National Democratic Party
(Rastriya Janashakti Party-RJP),the Ambassador conveyed U.S.
concern over the political parties' continued alliance with
the Maoists. In both meetings, the Ambassador stressed that
if the King reached out to the political parties, the Parties
should accept an offer to begin a process of reconciliation
with the King. End Summary.

NEGATIVE REACTION TO COOPERATION WITH THE KING
-------------- -


2. (C) K.P. Oli, CPN-UML, met with the Ambassador on February
13 to discuss possible next steps by the political parties
after the February 8 municipal elections. Oli stated that
his party was in a complex position because only CPN-UML
leaders supported reconciliation with the King; the CPN-UML
cadre, in contrast, were moving toward pushing for a
republic. Oli emphasized his desire to see democracy
restored in Nepal, but questioned if the King had a role to
play in its restoration. The Ambassador advised him that the
USG would not understand if the political parties failed to
respond to a genuine effort by the King to reach out. If the
King reached out to the political parties, Oli would like to
see a third-party mediator involved in the discussions to
guarantee "assurances" from the Palace. He expressed
displeasure with the current government and commented that
current government leaders passed no examination and were not
elected, they "simply get a tika and become an administrator."

PEACEFUL PROTEST BY PARTIES LEADS TO FUTURE MAOIST KINGDOM?
-------------- --------------


3. (C) With CPN-UML General Secretary Madhav Kumar Nepal
still under house arrest, Oli continued, the media had
pressured him to comment on the Maoists' plan for a parallel
government. He had explained that the CPN-UML believed they
could defeat the "autocratic monarchy" through peaceful
demonstrations, and that the party sought an end to the
violence. When pressed by the Ambassador about the Parties'
recent collaboration with the Maoists, Oli replied that the
Maoists and the Parties only signed an understanding.
However, he added that he was disillusioned by his party's
interactions with the Palace. He agreed that collaboration
with the Maoists might create an opportunity for the Maoists
to gain ground in their struggle against the King. However,
Oli opined, the current situation for the political parties
might be worse than a possible future with the Maoists. He
lamented, "We have no present, how can we think about the
future?" He conceded that the Ambassador's concern that the
Maoists could deceive the Parties at any time was valid, but
countered that the Parties were all being very cautious. In
the end, Oli reluctantly agreed to consider responding
positively if the King reached out to the Parties.

DEMOCRACY DAY: TWO CHOICES
--------------


4. (C) In a separate February 13 meeting with Surya Bahadur
Thapa of the RJP, the Ambassador again pressed for
reconciliation between King Gyanendra and the Parties. Thapa
commented that the conclusion of the elections and the
upcoming Democracy Day (February 19) might present an
opportunity for the King to reach out to the Parties in a
"dignified way." Thapa opined that in the King's Democracy
Day address Gyanendra would either call for parliamentary
elections, with or without the Parties' participation, or
reach out to reconcile with the political parties. Thapa saw
two conflicting choices for the Palace and believed that the
King had yet to make up his mind.

RECONCILIATION WITH THE KING
--------------


5. (C) The Ambassador stressed the need for the Parties and
Palace to reconcile, noting that the Parties appeared to be
moving closer and closer to the Maoists, who had shown no
intent to cease their campaign of violence. He also
cautioned that, if the Parties did not accept an offering by
the King to work toward reconciliation, the Maoists might
draw the Parties into joining their "underground movement"
against the King. Thapa agreed and mentioned that he had
requested an audience with the King before the King's three
week trip to Pokhara starting on February 17. Thapa noted
that if the audience were granted it would be a positive sign
for the Parties.

FAILURE ON ALL SIDES
--------------


6. (C) Thapa highlighted failures and missed opportunities by
all sides with respect to the municipal polls. While His
Majesty's Government of Nepal (HMGN) called the elections a
success, Thapa described the results as a technical victory
only; the polls were well-managed by Nepal's standards, but
the voter turn-out was very low and no one of any consequence
ran. Thapa stated, however, that the Parties could not
muster enough support to directly challenge the King's rule,
and the violence since the end of the unilateral ceasefire
had shown that their November 12-point understanding with the
Maoists was a mistake. He added the signing of the agreement
with the Parties showed that they could not achieve Maoist
objectives on their own and needed a second strategy to
attempt to defeat the King. Finally, Thapa portrayed the
international community as failing in its attempts to
pressure the King.

MAOISTS CALL FOR A PARALLEL GOVERNMENT
--------------


7. (C) Former Prime Minister Thapa worried about Prachanda's
recent calls for the Maoists and political parties to form a
parallel government. Thapa explained that the Maoists could
well orchestrate a "parliamentary session" to be held in the
Maoist heartland where the parallel government could amend
the constitution and write the monarchy out of existence.

COMMENT
--------------


8. (C) Both political leaders stated that there may be an
opportunity for the King to reach out to the Parties, but
stressed that any movement from the Palace must be
accompanied by public assurances that there would be a move
toward the restoration of democracy. While Thapa and the
Ambassador shared views about the dangers of the current
situation and the critical need for reconciliation, the
Ambassador had to push Oli very hard to even consider
responding positively if the King reached out. We believe
that G.P. Koirala's suggestion of Indian pressure on the
Parties (reftel) is worth pursuing.
MORIARTY