KOIRALA OPEN TO GESTURE BY KING, STRESSES INDIAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L KATHMANDU 000430 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR SA/INS NSC FOR RICHELSOPH E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/13/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV IN NP SUBJECT: KOIRALA OPEN TO GESTURE BY KING, STRESSES INDIAN INVOLVEMENT REF: A. KATHMANDU 409 ¶B. KATHMANDU 392 Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty, reasons 1.4 (b/d) SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) In a February 13 meeting with the Ambassador, Nepali Congress (NC) President G.P. Koirala explained that, unless the first move was made by the Palace, he could not meet with any representatives of His Majesty's Government of Nepal (HMGN),rejecting a suggestion by Foreign Minister Pandey (reftel). However, he stated that he could "manage" a positive response from most members of the seven-party alliance to a public statement by the King genuinely calling for re-instating democracy. Koirala ruled out any closer Party involvement with the Maoists and said the NC would continue to strive for dialogue with the Palace. He urged the Ambassador to seek Indian assistance to pressure the Parties to take part in dialogue with the King, and to also pressure the Maoists. The Ambassador also discussed with Koirala about China's apparent intentions not to throw the King's government a lifeline. End Summary. KOIRALA: MEETING WITH FOREIGN MINISTER NOT POSSIBLE... -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) In a February 13 meeting with the Ambassador, NC President G.P. Koirala stressed that he could not meet with Foreign Minister Pandey or the King before any public outreach by the Palace. The Ambassador explained that Foreign Minister Pandey hoped to push the King to make a public gesture of reconciliation in his February 19 Democracy Day speech, but the Foreign Minister thought that such a gesture was unlikely unless the King had reassurances from the Parties beforehand (ref A). The Ambassador passed on Pandey's request for a meeting with Koirala before February ¶19. Koirala responded that such a meeting would likely lead to bad press alleging that he was "conspiring" with the Palace and that a meeting with Pandey was "not possible." The NC President said he trusted the Ambassador and suggested the Ambassador could mediate between him and the Palace. ...BUT NEPALI CONGRESS AND OTHERS WOULD RESPOND FAVORABLY TO OUTREACH FROM PALACE -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) Koirala stressed that if the King released all political prisoners and then made a public outreach to the 
Parties, he could assure a positive reaction by his party and "manage" three others in the seven-party alliance. He explained that if the King made it clear publicly that he wanted to re-instate democracy, the NC would react by saying the King's gesture was "positive." The NC President said he would try to convince the other Parties to respond positively and should be able to "manage" convincing the Nepali Congress - Democratic (NC-D),the United Marxist - Leninist (UML) and the Nepal Workers and Peasants (NWPP) Parties. He noted however, the NC would not agree to any three-way dialogue with the Palace and Maoists in the absence of credible third-party international mediation. PARTIES' STANCE ON THE PARTY-MAOIST TWELVE POINT UNDERSTANDING -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) The Ambassador explained the dangers the Parties could face if they continued to hold to the Party-Maoist 12-point understanding. He stressed the need for the Parties and Palace to reconcile, noting that the Parties appeared to be adopting the agenda of the Maoists, who had shown no intent to cease their campaign of violence. The Ambassador pointed out that the Parties had yet to make any public statements about Maoist violence related to the February 8 municipal polls. He warned that continued Party silence might encourage the Maoists to rope the Parties into joining the Maoist "underground movement" against the King. Koirala said the Parties would never join the Maoists in such an "underground movement," acknowledging that would be "political suicide." He stated that the NC would continue to take the "middle-ground" and aim for dialogue with the Palace. The Ambassador also noted the government's lack of a counter-insurgency strategy and suggested the need for the government to develop a comprehensive plan that included delivering security and basic services to the common Nepali in the countryside. KOIRALA: INDIANS MUST HELP PRESSURE PARTIES AND MAOISTS -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) Koirala urged the Ambassador to seek Indian assistance to pressure the Parties to respond positively to dialogue with the Palace as well as pressure the Maoists to lay down arms and participate in a three-way dialogue. The Ambassador agreed about the need to increase India's role and undertook to discuss this with the Indian Ambassador. The Ambassador commented that he had recently reminded the Indian Ambassador of India's role in the 12-point understanding and of the mess that would follow the fall of the political parties (ref B). KOIRALA: CONCERN OVER CHINA'S INVOLVEMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) Koirala expressed general concern over Nepal-China relations, noting the recent cancellation of a high-level visit by Tang Jiaxuan, China's State Counselor. The NC President explained that he had heard the visit was postponed by HMGN because it objected to Tang's requests to meet with political parties. While indicating he was unsure of exactly why the visit had been postponed, the Ambassador noted that China realized the situation was getting worse in Nepal. He explained that India had warned China not to meddle with Nepal as such interference would negatively affect Indo-China relations. He added that Beijing had apparently assured India it had no intention to become a major arms supplier to Nepal. The Ambassador concluded by saying that pressure from China could help convince the King that further repression was not an option. COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) Koirala's emphasis on the need for Indian involvement showed his continued view that India is the key to a solution to Nepal's problems. It also indicated his strong interest in the possibility of the Palace publicly reaching out. However, both Koirala and Foreign Minister Pandey continue to attach pre-conditions to public outreach from the King. One side will need to show vision to start the process of compromise. MORIARTY