COAS KATAWAL DOWNPLAYS RUMORS OF ROYAL RESURGENCE

C O N F I D E N T I A L KATHMANDU 003131 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2016 TAGS: PGOV PTER PREL NP SUBJECT: COAS KATAWAL DOWNPLAYS RUMORS OF ROYAL RESURGENCE REF: KATHMANDU 3124 Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty. Reasons 1.4 (b/d). Resurgence Of The King? -------------- ¶1. (C/NF) On November 28, Siddharta Rana, a prominent businessman and son of a close confidante of the King, told the Ambassador that the King believed he was going to make a comeback soon, and that he still did not realize he was responsible for his own downfall. Rana said the King blamed India and the Nepal Army (NA) for the success of the pro-democracy movement in April 2006. The King's advisors had told him that they would be able to mobilize 500,000 Shiv Sena Hindu radicals from India to participate in favor of the monarchy in the Constituent Assembly elections in June. Similarly, the King's advisor's hoped to convince the NA to intervene on his behalf. NA Chief: King's Aspirations "Suicidal" -------------- ¶2. (C/NF) Later on November 28, Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Rukmangud Katawal told the Ambassador that he had heard the rumors of the King's desire to make a comeback as well. However, Katawal described such a move as "suicidal," declaring, "as long as I am COAS, such an alliance (between the NA and the King) will not happen." Katawal Not Impressed By Latest Agreement -------------- ¶3. (C) Katawal complained to the Ambassador that the Government of Nepal (GON) had been too compliant in negotiations with the Maoists on the November 28 arms management agreement (reftel). Katawal was pleased that references to Maoist People's Liberation Army (PLA) "divisions" and "brigades" had been dropped from the final agreement, avoiding the entry of up to seven Maoist "generals" into the NA. However, Katawal was worried about the ability of the Maoists to conduct military training in the camps. Katawal said that he was going to meet with Indian Foreign Secretary Menon during his visit to Nepal and would emphasize the need to hold the Maoists to their commitments. Katawal also intended to stress to Menon the importance of civilian control over the NA. Comment -------------- ¶4. (C/NF) The King's apparent dream of a return to power seems to be the stuff of fantasy. Even if his advisors want to create trouble during the elections to a Constituent Assembly, it seems unlikely that they could mobilize large numbers of Hindu fundamentalists to take part. Katawal's view of such a move by the King as "suicidal" and his commitment to civilian control over the military are welcome. We will continue to buck up the GON in negotiations and press it to create mechanisms to hold the Maoists to their commitments. The international community's role in the latter is vital. MORIARTY