INDIA SUPPORTS SEPARATION OF MAOIST ARMS

C O N F I D E N T I A L KATHMANDU 002880 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/27/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF PTER IN NP SUBJECT: INDIA SUPPORTS SEPARATION OF MAOIST ARMS REF: A. KATHMANDU 2734 ¶B. KATHMANDU 2810 Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty. Reasons 1.4 (b/d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) During an October 26 meeting with the Ambassador, Indian Ambassador Shiv Shankar Mukherjee reiterated that the Government of India (GOI) supported the separation of Maoists from their arms and enforcement of law and order by the Government of Nepal (GON). Ambassador Mukherjee acknowledged that the GOI was pushing there views quietly behind the scenes, with the USG and others playing a more public role. He explained that the GOI increasingly realized the necessity of international community support to enable the GON to hold free and fair elections in 2007. The Indian Ambassador explained that the last GOI official to visit Bhutan had urged the Royal Government of Bhutan to repatriate at least a token number of Bhutanese to break the impasse over the refugee issue. GOI SUPPORTS SEPARATION OF MAOIST ARMS -------------- ¶2. (C) During the October 26 meeting with the Ambassador, Indian Ambassador Shiv Shankar Mukherjee began by stressing that the Government of India (GOI) fully endorsed the separation of Maoists from their weapons and was also pushing the Government of Nepal (GON) to begin enforcing law and order. Ambassador Mukherjee explained that the GOI was content to push quietly behind the scenes while the U.S. and others continued to be more public with their views. The Indian Ambassador said he had met with PM Singh on his recent trip to Delhi along with then Defense - Minister Pranab Mukherjee, the newly appointed Foreign Minister. FM Mukherjee said that the separation of Maoists from their weapons was the "irreducible minimum." Ambassador Mukherjee commented that the single-key mechanism of arms management was not practical as Maoist cadre would still feel they could obtain their weapons at any time, if Prachanda held the key. He stressed that the USG needed to push the Seven-Party Alliance (SPA) on unity and separation of weapons, which the Ambassador confirmed was our position also. GOI REALIZES NEED FOR INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY SUPPORT -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) Ambassador Mukherjee noted that the Maoists and SPA were close to a peace deal on October 15. According to Mukherjee, Prachanda had shown considerable flexibility in an informal meeting before the summit. At the summit, however, Prachanda reverted to the previous, hard-line position of the Maoists (ref A). The Indian Ambassador mentioned that the GOI was increasingly less concerned about UN involvement in the peace process, having realized it would take significant support from the U.S. and the rest of the international community to achieve free and fair elections in Nepal during ¶2007. He requested the USG to push the UN out of its current passive role and into giving more concrete advice to the GON on arms management. NO GOI OBJECTION TO USG LETHAL ASSISTANCE? -------------- ¶4. (C) The Ambassador explained to his Indian counterpart that, at the request of PM Koirala, the USG continued to keep in storage all lethal military assistance for the GON. The Ambassador assumed, however, that the GOI would be against the U.S. providing lethal assistance if the GON were on the verge of collapse and requested assistance. The Ambassador stressed that the Nepal Army (NA) only had 450 rounds of ammunition for each of its soldiers (ref B). Ambassador Mukherjee offered no response other than to reiterate the GOI would come to Nepal's aid if necessary. GOI PUSHES RGOB TO REPATRIATE SOME BHUTANESE REFUGEES -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) Ambassador Mukherjee had explained that, on the Indian MEA's last visit to Thimphu, the GOI stressed that the Royal Government of Bhutan (RGOB) needed to repatriate several hundred refugees from camps in Nepal to help break the impasse. Mukherjee said he was surprised when PM Singh had asked him if the Bhutanese refugee camps in Nepal were a breeding ground for Maoists. He told PM Singh that the camps were full of the sort of unemployed youth that always represented fertile breeding grounds for extremists. The Ambassador explained that, in the absence of a durable solution, there could well be further expulsions from Bhutan. The Indian Ambassador mentioned that the recent media blitz over the U.S. offer to resettle up to 60,000 Bhutanese was helpful, as it made it easier for the GOI to work with the RGOB on the issue. COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) From our perspective, the change of Foreign Ministers in the GOI should be good for our cooperation with India on Nepal. In his prior position as Minister of Defense, Pranab Mukherjee seemed to believe that a Maoist takeover of Nepal would be a real threat to GOI security. His appointment as the new Foreign Minister should make it increasingly likely that the GOI will work strongly behind the scenes with the GON on separation of arms even while letting the USG and others take a more public stance on the issue. The GOI's shift to greater acceptance of the an international community/UN role in the peace process should prove beneficial as we continue our efforts to support the GON. We will want to see whether GOI pressure on the RGOB on the Bhutanese refugees, combined with the recent media debate over the U.S. offer to repatriate up to 60,000 Bhutanese, provokes the RGOB into making a positive gesture on the issue. MORIARTY