PEACE PROCESS OBSTRUCTED BUT ONGOING

C O N F I D E N T I A L KATHMANDU 002749 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/15/2016 TAGS: PGOV PTER UN NP SUBJECT: PEACE PROCESS OBSTRUCTED BUT ONGOING REF: KATHMANDU 2734 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Nicholas Dean. Reasons 1.4 (b/d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Contrary to the indications we had on October 13, the Government of Nepal (GON) and the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) (CPN-M) did not reach a peace deal at their meeting on October 15. No new date for talks was announced. According to our sources, Maoist arms management was the principal stumbling block. Peace facilitator Siebert told Charge October 16 that the UN peace team met October 16 with both the GON and the CPN-M separately and then together in an effort to assist the two sides in reaching an agreement. Siebert also informed Charge, and Seven Party Alliance leaders confirmed, that the parties plan to wait until a deal is in place on all the issues before meeting again. Despite High Expectations No Peace Deal -------------- ¶2. (C) In spite of optimistic predictions on October 13 from USAID-contracted peace facilitator Hannes Siebert, the Prime Minister's Defense Advisor Ramesh Jung Thapa and Nepali Congress - Democratic (NC-D) General Secretary Bimalendra Nidhi (reftel),the Government of Nepal (GON) and the Maoists failed to reach a peace agreement at their meeting the afternoon of October 15. At the previous three sessions, on October 8, 10 and 12, all of parties in the governing Seven-Party Alliance (SPA) had participated in the negotiations with the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist). On the 15th, it was only the "Big Three" -- the Nepali Congress (NC),the Communist Party of Nepal - United Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML),and the NC-D. Prakash Mahat, a member of the NC-D Central Committee and a participant in the talks, stated to Emboff October 16 that it was simply easier for the NC, the CPN-UML and the NC-D to work out a deal with the Maoists, and then present it to the others. It also had the added advantage of limiting the ability of the three small leftist parties in the SPA to make mischief, something which had been a problem, he said, in the prior sessions. There was no press conference after the meeting on October 15 and no new date for talks was announced. Maoist Arms Management and Other Open Issues -------------- ¶3. (C) Peace facilitator Siebert explained to Charge on October 16 that the anticipated deal on the central issue of Maoist arms management had broken down in part because Prime Minister Koirala had decided after meetings with Chief of Army Staff Katawal as well as the King's Principal Secretary to return to his prior insistence on complete separation of the Maoists from their arms before they entered an interim government. Sujata Koirala, the PM's daughter, told Emboff on October 15 that she had also pressed her father to hold out for complete separation. Anything short of that, she had told him, would not be acceptable to the international community. Mahat stated to Emboff October 16 that he thought all of the remaining open issues could be resolved if arms management were resolved. That included the role of the monarch and the composition of the interim parliament. According to Mahat, the Maoists' demands for the creation of a unified republican front and for "suspension of the monarchy" were largely for popular consumption. They realized, he said, that the NC would never agree to the first and that the second had largely already happened. Mahat suggested that the parties would agree to some sort of statement regarding nationalization of the King's property in order to satisfy the CPN-M's demands. Next Steps -------------- ¶4. (C) Bim Riwal, a leading member of the CPN-UML, told Emboff October 16 that he thought agreement on the issues of arms management, the monarchy and the interim parliament could perhaps be reached within four to five days. Mahat said a deal might be possible within a week. Peace facilitator Siebert passed on to Charge October 16 that the decision on when to call the next session had been left to the Prime Minister. The next formal meeting would not take place until there was a deal on all of the open issues. In the meantime, the UN peace team met separately October 16, he reported, with the GON and the CPN-M and then with both in an effort to reach agreement on arms management. Chakra Bastola, a senior NC leader, informed Emboff October 16 that the talks were continuing, but that public expectations were outpacing the negotiations. It was important, he said, to lower the talks' profile and allow low-key informal discussions to continue among the parties and the Maoists so that consensus could be reached. Comment -------------- ¶5. (C) We see the delay in reaching a peace deal as a good thing. For a short time, it appeared that Prime Minister Koirala might allow the Maoists into an interim government with their arms. We are delighted he did not do so. We will redouble our efforts to shore up him and his colleagues in the CPN-UML and the NC-D to continue taking a firm position. Post will also continue to work closely with the UN Secretary General's representative to the peace process, Ian Martin, and his team to help them fashion an arms management deal that will protect Nepal's fragile democracy. DEAN