PM TELLS AMBASSADOR: GIVE PEACE A CHANCE

C O N F I D E N T I A L KATHMANDU 002573 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/20/2016 TAGS: PGOV PTER NP SUBJECT: PM TELLS AMBASSADOR: GIVE PEACE A CHANCE REF: A. KATHMANDU 2556 ¶B. KATHMANDU 2538 Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty. Reasons 1.4 (b/d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Prime Minister Koirala and Foreign Policy Advisor Dr. Chalise told the Ambassador September 21 that the Government of Nepal had to give the Maoists every chance to make peace. Maoist Supremo Prachanda had accepted the PM's demand in a meeting September 17 that Maoist arms management would have to precede a political deal (Ref A). Under the circumstances, Chalise stated, it made sense to defer a crackdown on Maoist violence and extortion for a while longer. The Ambassador warned in stark terms that the Government of Nepal's failure to enforce law and order was undermining the GON's authority and emboldening the Maoists. By every indication, they were playing the GON for time until they were ready to launch another people's movement. Violence would follow if they did not get what they wanted. Chalise claimed the GON would be ready. Some Good News On the Maoists -------------- ¶2. (C) The Ambassador opened his September 21 meeting with Prime Minister and Nepali Congress Party President GP Koirala and his Foreign Policy Advisor Dr. Suresh Chalise by noting that he had some good news from his trip the previous week to the far West of Nepal. The Maoists continued to be the real threat to peace, but, fortunately, their threats and intimidation were mostly a bluff. They had little public support and few cadre, he stated. In the case of Mahendranagar, several dozen Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) (CPN-M) members were being allowed to terrorize the entire city. The Ambassador stressed that he recognized the Government of Nepal (GON) was at a sensitive point in the peace negotiations with the Maoists. Still, he had to ask, when did the GON plan to crack down on rampant Maoist abuses? Maoist Arms Management First -------------- ¶3. (C) The Prime Minister told the Ambassador that he had insisted in his September 17 session with Maoist Supremo Prachanda that arms management had to come first. Only then could the GON proceed on the political issues. At first, according, to Chalise, the CPN-M leader had been reluctant, but after a while he had accepted the PM's demand for the Maoists to give up their arms. The Ambassador expressed his pleasure at that news, but cautioned Koirala and Chalise to be careful. In response, both men emphasized that they were going to test the Maoist promise. The foreign policy advisor added that government leaders were not fools. They were not about to agree to hand over a large share of power, such as a majority of seats in an interim parliament, to the Maoists. The Maoists would have to prove their good faith. PM Koirala cited the return of confiscated property by the Maoists as another step he was going to insist on. Crackdown After Combatants In Camps -------------- ¶4. (C) Chalise, speaking with the evident agreement of the Prime Minister, stressed that there would be a phased process. First, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) would go into cantonments. Then they would be separated from their arms in a process worked out between the GON, the Maoists and the United Nations. Once the Maoist combatants were in the camps, the Nepali Government would provide them with food, shelter and recreation. (Note: The Maoists publicly claim they need USD 8 million a year for food and clothing for the PLA.) At that point, the GON would insist on an end to any and all Maoist extortion and threats. Any Maoist carrying weapons would be arrested. For each of the steps, there would be an agreed timetable. The PM noted: "We have yet to see what will happen. For the time being, they (the Maoists) have made promises." Maoists Playing for Time -------------- ¶5. (C) The Ambassador voiced the concern that the Maoists were playing for time. All the reports from the recent CPN-M Central Committee meeting indicated they were preparing to launch a new people's movement soon. It would probably lead, he said, to Maoist violence. The police were scared of the Maoists' weapons and scared to act against a party that might soon be in government. The longer the GON waited, the Ambassador warned, the less likely the police would be there when the GON needed them. The Maoists, the Ambassador maintained, need to give you a date when they will move into the camps. Give Peace A Chance -------------- ¶6. (C) The PM's advisor responded saying, "Let's give the Maoists a few more weeks." He conceded that the PM had told the Ambassador he planned to name a new Home Minister, but now a new potential for peace had developed. We have to give peace a chance, Chalise said. It was important to wait as long as possible before acting against the CPN-M in order to convince every segment of society that the GON had done all it could. Nepalis are worried about law and order, the foreign policy advisor admitted, but they also fear more conflict. In time, the people would start to speak out against Maoist extortion. Chalise complained that the lack of support for a strong law and order policy from the other two major parties in the Seven-Party Alliance government -- the Communist Party of Nepal - United Marxist Leninist (UML) and the Nepali Congress (Democratic) Party -- and the UML's recent threat to leave the governing coalition had made the PM's task more difficult. Maoist Blackmail -------------- ¶7. (C) The Ambassador informed the PM and Chalise that he had done what Koirala had requested in one of their recent meetings: he had stressed to UML General Secretary Nepal and NC-D President Deuba the importance of coalition unity (Ref B). Partisan differences aside, the Ambassador stated, he was convinced they would both support the PM on enforcing law and order. Meanwhile, the GON was letting the Maoists blackmail them. In effect, the government was saying that it was so worried the Maoists would walk away from the peace talks that it would ignore Maoist threats and abuses. The Ambassador cited the case of the head of the Hyatt Regency Hotel in Kathmandu who was leaving the country because Maoists had made it impossible for her to run the hotel. In spite of appeals to the Prime Minister, some two dozen Maoists had occupied hotel facilities and were insisting on the use of hotel rooms. Nothing had been done. Common people were scared to speak out. The Ambassador emphasized that he could not remain silent when there was a real risk of Nepal becoming a People's Republic, with all the horrors that entailed. He mentioned he had told the Norwegian Ambassador the same thing. Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) Post was pleased to hear the PM and Chalise repeat what Chalise had told the DCM a few days ago: that the PM had stuck to his guns and gotten Maoist Supremo Prachanda to agree to deal with Maoist arms first. Koirala gave no indication that he was prepared to relent on this condition. That said, we worry weaker members of his negotiating team -- first and foremost chief negotiator and Home Minister Sitaula -- will undermine the PM's strong stand. Although not unexpected, it was discouraging to hear that Sitaula and the Maoists have been given a reprieve for a few more weeks. Despite the Ambassador's reiteration of the grave dangers involved, the PM seems determined to wait to appoint a new Home Minister and to enforce law and order. Chalise told us that the security forces will be ready to take on the Maoists if it proves necessary. We hope he is right. MORIARTY