GOVERNMENT AND PARTIES NERVOUS, BUT UNBENDING

C O N F I D E N T I A L KATHMANDU 000232 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR SA/INS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/24/2016 TAGS: PGOV PHUM NP SUBJECT: GOVERNMENT AND PARTIES NERVOUS, BUT UNBENDING REF: KATHMANDU 172 Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty, Reasons, 1.4 (b/d). Government Relaxes Some Restrictions ... -------------- ¶1. (C) During the evening of January 23, His Majesty's Government of Nepal (HMGN) withdrew the curfew in effect in Kathmandu and Lalitpur, which it had put in place on January 16 (ref A),restored cellphone service, and once again allowed political activity and demonstrations in much of Kathmandu and Lalitpur (except in the areas it had restricted after February 1, 2005). However, security forces continue to arrest party cadre and human rights defenders to prevent them from mobilizing people to enforce the seven-party alliance-called January 26 bandh (general strike). Scores of Party leaders, including CPN-UML General Secretary Madhav Kumar Nepal, who remains under house arrest, and a handful of human rights defenders remain in detention, while others are still underground. ... But Still No Postponement of Municipal Polls -------------- --- ¶2. (C) On January 24, Vice-Chairman Tulsi Giri telephoned the Ambassador and said "the King yesterday had been moving toward postponing the February 8 polls," but that Nepali Congress (NC) President GP Koirala's public pronouncements yesterday ruling out compromise likely had killed any hope that the King would postpone the polls. (Note: Many thought HMGN's ending of the curfew and restoration of cellphone service January 23 was a sign the King was softening his approach, and that perhaps the government would release those remaining in detention. End Note.) The Ambassador noted that Koirala's remarks had been unhelpful, but, given his recent house arrest, Koirala was probably not in a very conciliatory mood. The Ambassador urged Giri to understand that the need of the hour was for statesmanship. Comment -------------- ¶3. (C) The government is sending mixed signals. It seems to be trying to invite some of the Party leaders to negotiate, while at the same time trying to unnerve the seven-party alliance. The Parties' perception is that HMGN is trying to break up the seven-party alliance by releasing only some of the leaders, e.g., NC's GP Koirala, but not UML's MK Nepal. GP Koirala probably felt compelled to issue a statement spurning talks between himself and the King to show that he was standing firm with the seven-party alliance. The government needs to match its actions with its words; continued arrests and threats will not lead to reconciliation. MORIARTY