JANUARY POLITICAL POLL SHOWS SUPPORT FOR DEMOCRACY

UNCLAS KATHMANDU 001714

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PTER NP
SUBJECT: JANUARY POLITICAL POLL SHOWS SUPPORT FOR DEMOCRACY


Summary
--------------


1. (U) In May 2006, the Asia Foundation and a group called
Interdisciplinary Analysts released the results of a poll,
"Nepal Contemporary Political Situation -- II," conducted
across Nepal in January, which showed that the overwhelming
majority of Nepalese thought democracy was right for Nepal.
People said the way to solve the Maoist problems was through
talks. Hardly anyone knew what a Constituent Assembly meant.
People clearly supported international assistance in
negotiating, and monitoring, a peaceful agreement. End
Summary.

Democracy Is Right For Nepal
--------------


2. (U) An overwhelming majority of poll respondents (74
percent) indicated that democracy was a suitable system for
Nepal. However, answers regarding the method for creating
democracy differed. A large number (46 percent) thought that
an interim government should have been formed including
Maoists in order to bring them to the bargaining table. Only
16 percent thought a new constitution should be formulated;
of these, 46 percent thought the new constitution should be
formed by a Constituent Assembly, 22 percent by a House of
Representatives, and 10 percent by a committee nominated by
the King. Thirty-six percent of respondents said that
democracy would bring about an increase in corruption.


3. (U) Although 55 percent of those surveyed had heard of
Constituent Assembly, only 15 percent actually knew what it
was. There was almost an even split of opinion about Maoist
commitment to democracy -- nearly 40 percent thought that the
Maoists were committed to democracy, while nearly 37 percent
thought they were not.

Solutions To Maoist Problem
--------------


4. (U) Nearly 63 percent of respondents thought the Maoist
problem would be solved through talks. Fifty-two percent did
not think the government had increased security against
Maoist attacks during the time since the King took over on
February 1, 2005. Lack of functioning local government
resulting from the Maoist insurgency did not affect people
much, with 54 percent stating that they had no problems due
to the lack of local government. When asked if the Maoists
were serious about restoring peace, 23 percent said yes and
36 percent said no.

Support for International Role
--------------


5. (U) Around 54 percent of respondents wanted a third-party
mediator in peace talks, indicating a preference for the
United Nations or a human rights organization. Nearly 59
percent wanted to bring the Maoist People's Army and the
Royal Nepalese Army (now the Nepal Army) under international
supervision.

Report Includes Cross-Section Of Society
--------------


6. (U) The survey was conducted January 5-25 by the Asia
Foundation and Interdisciplinary Analysts. The poll surveyed
3,000 people in Nepal; 1,500 from rural areas and 1,500 from
urban areas. The breakdown of male and female was
approximately 50 percent each. Respondents represented
districts from across the country, giving information from
all five regions, and respondent numbers were based on
district population. Rural residents were more likely to
respond "I don't know" or "I can't say" to questions than
urban residents.

Comment
--------------


7. (SBU) Although the data is five months old, it was
collected after the November 2005 12-point understanding
between the Maoists and the seven-party alliance. Nepalis'
support for democracy likely intensified during the People's
Movement. Whether people's trust in the Maoists has
increased is an open, and key, question. The poll reflects
the yearning of the Nepalese people for success in the
ongoing peace process -- especially given the recent talk of
UN monitoring of the cease-fire between the GON and the
Maoists. Post plans to conduct a poll between July and
September on perceptions of the United States which will
include some political questions as well.
MORIARTY