MAOIST CONFUSION REIGNS: INCHING CLOSER TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L KATHMANDU 001678 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/26/2016 TAGS: PGOV PTER NP SUBJECT: MAOIST CONFUSION REIGNS: INCHING CLOSER TO GOVERNMENT? REF: KATHMANDU 1630 Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty. Reasons 1.4 (b/d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) The Government of Nepal (GON) continues to issue vague statements about Maoist arms and an interim government. Home Minister Krishna Sitaula announced that the Maoists would join the government as soon as the UN started monitoring weapons, explaining that an interim government and arms management would go side by side. An EU diplomat told us that the EU would work with the Maoists in government if necessary. Maoist Chairman Prachanda spouted anti-American conspiracy theories in far-western Nepal before traveling to Kathmandu with his deputy, Baburam Bhattarai, to hold meetings with political party leaders. Communist Party of Nepal-United Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) leader M.K. Nepal and Nepal Workers and Peasants Party (NWPP) leader Narayan Man Bijukchhe indicated that they were encouraged by their meetings with Prachanda and Baburam Bhattarai. End Summary. HOME MINISTER CLAIMS MAOISTS TO JOIN GOVERNMENT BEFORE COMPLETE DISARMAMENT -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Home Minister Krishna Sitaula announced on June 24 that the Maoists would join the government as soon as the UN started monitoring weapons, contradicting his June 20 statement that the Maoists must first completely disarm (reftel). "Complete arms management is a long and complex process," Sitaula explained. He told a meeting of journalists that the Maoists would join the interim government after the Nepalese Army (NA) returned to barracks and armed Maoists returned to their camps. He then outlined the sequence of events he thought likely to precede constituent assembly elections: first, guns would disappear from the streets; second, the UN would start monitoring arms; next, the interim constitution would be prepared; then, an interim government would be formed; and finally, the date of the elections would be declared. Sitaula, who is also leader of the government talks team, said that the government was holding talks with the Maoists and focusing on monitoring the cease-fire Code of Conduct, preparing for the UN's involvement in arms management, and forming the interim government with Maoist participation. He added that transparency could not be maintained in all government-Maoist talks because of "practical complexities." EU WILLING TO WORK WITH MAOISTS? -------------- ¶3. (C) Media reported on June 23 that the EU was going to treat all as equals, including the Maoists, and accept everybody as a part of the development agenda. Line Urban, Third Secretary in the Delegation of the European Commission to Nepal, told Emboff that the EU was unlikely to differentiate between Maoists and non-Maoists in the government. The EU never labeled the Maoists as terrorists as the USG did. Urban said that if the Maoists made attempts to renounce violence and give up arms, then the EU would recognize them and work with them if necessary to promote development work. When pushed about what "attempts" meant, she did not answer directly. She said that if the central command of the Maoists could maintain leadership, perhaps the international community could push them to come into the political mainstream more effectively--but by ignoring the Maoists, the international community would push them toward a more extreme position. Urban said that the EU's statement to "help Nepal reach out to its people" instead of "help the government reach out to its people" was intentional because the EU may not work through the Government of Nepal as much in the future, but would instead work more through NGOs and INGOs to provide assistance--even "if that means working with the Maoists in local areas." Urban was adamant about development not being used as a "political tool." MAOIST CHAIRMAN PEDDLING ANTI-AMERICAN CONSPIRACY THEORIES -------------- -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Maoist chairman Prachanda, addressing a press meet in the far-western district of Kailali on June 23, urged political party leaders to remain alert for conspiracies to break up the eight-point agreement between the government and the Maoists. Prachanda claimed that India and the United States were trying to ruin the agreement, alleged that the US Ambassador's frequent visits to different districts were beyond diplomatic norms, and concluded that the Ambassador was involved in a deep conspiracy to destroy the eight-point agreement. MAOIST LEADERS MEET WITH PARTY CHIEFS -------------- ¶5. (C) On June 25, the day after returning to Kathmandu, Prachanda and his deputy Baburam Bhattarai held separate meetings with CPN-UML general secretary M.K. Nepal and Nepal Workers and Peasants Party (NWPP) chairman Narayan Man Bijukchhe to discuss the Nepalese Army's statement on Prachanda's June 16 remarks and other "misunderstandings" about the eight-point agreement. (Note: During the June 16 press conference, Prachanda had said that the NA had not done anything other than "murdering Nepali people and raping Nepali women." The NA in response issued a statement on June 22 defending its history and integrity. Both Maoist and seven-party leadership critiqued the Army for becoming involved in political issues, but Deputy Prime Minister K.P. Oli has defended the NA's statement, saying that Prachanda's comment could have a negative impact on peace talks. End Note.) ¶6. (C) M.K. Nepal, noting that there was a lack of trust between the seven parties and Maoists, said that he had raised the issue of Maoist extortion and abductions with Prachanda and was encouraged by the discussion. M.K. Nepal told the Ambassador that he had stressed that Maoist actions were more important than their words. He had also advised them to change their policies--they cannot keep their weapons and come into the mainstream. Bijukchhe told reporters that Prachanda and Bhattarai expressed concern about whether the seven-party alliance was distancing itself from the agreement. Bijukchhe also said that he felt the rebels were hurrying to participate in an interim government as soon as possible. Maoist talks team leader Dina Nath Sharma told reporters that Prachanda and Bhattarai will continue holding meetings with other seven-party alliance leaders, members of civil society, and human rights activists in the coming days. NEW HEAD FOR CEASE-FIRE MONITORING COMMITTEE -------------- ¶7. (U) On June 26, Birendra Mishra, former member of the Election Commission, was nominated to be the new head of the 31-member Cease-fire and Code of Conduct Monitoring Committee. He replaced Dr. Devendra Raj Pandey, who declined the position on June 20 (reftel). Mishra, a former instructor at Tribhuvan International University in Kathmandu, holds a Ph.D. in philosophy. COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) With Prime Minister G.P. Koirala still in Bangkok, the GON has been unable to issue a unified statement regarding the conditions for Maoist participation in an interim government. Political leaders overwhelmingly want disarmament before the Maoists join the government, but many have told us that they do not expect the Maoists to agree to this. Home Minister Sitaula's announcement that Maoists could join the government once they retreated from violence (but did not necessarily disarm) is a reflection of these conflicting views. The Maoists are working their PR and buttering up party leaders. Meanwhile, the government continues to meander without solid leadership. Prime Minister G.P. Koirala's return to Kathmandu has been delayed until June 27. Local media reported that doctors in Bangkok were satisfied with Koirala's response to medical treatment (he underwent prostate surgery last week) but suggested that he rest more in Bangkok. MORIARTY