MAOIST SUPREMO MAKES THREATENING NOISES DURING

C O N F I D E N T I A L KATHMANDU 001477 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/09/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER NP SUBJECT: MAOIST SUPREMO MAKES THREATENING NOISES DURING FIRST TELEVISION INTERVIEW Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty, Reasons, 1.4 (b/d). Prachanda Speaks Out: Warns Political Parties -------------- ¶1. (SBU) In his first-ever Nepali television interview, aired June 8, Maoist commander-in-chief Prachanda emphasized the Maoist road map: that Parliament should be dissolved; an interim government, including the Maoists, should be formed; and constituent assembly elections should be held. He stressed that talks should be held as soon as possible with the government to make this happen and to end the monarchy. He warned that India should not try to play a mediator role because China would not like it. He asserted that the success of talks was in the hands of New Delhi and Washington, accusing both of hindering progress. He warned that if the seven-party alliance tried to reinstate local governmental bodies, talks would end, which some foreign powers wanted. Instead, he suggested that the government and the Maoists should form a joint government at the local level, in which case Prachanda offered that the Maoists were prepared to dissolve their own local governments. ¶2. (SBU) Prachanda explained that the "February Revolution" could become the "October Revolution" that would bring about the end of the monarchy; he claimed the October Revolution would be based on the 12-point understanding. Prachanda also said that if the seven-party alliance thought it could rule the country with the help of the "Royal" Nepalese Army, the alliance was mistaken. He claimed that the loss of 13,000 lives was comparatively little for a revolution. He insisted that this was a small cost to pay to end the monarchy. The Maoist leader acknowledged that he had exchanged letters with the King in an attempt to solve the problem through dialogue. Prachanda said he had also submitted a list of 40 demands to the government of former Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, which had not been met. Politicos Conclude Negotiations Will Be Difficult -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) Many seven-party alliance politicians thought Prachanda's interview was belligerent, but not as frightening as they had expected. Bhim Rawal, Central Committee of the CPN-UML, and Govindra Raj Joshi, Central Committee member of the Nepali Congress (NC),separately told us that the interview clearly signaled that the Maoists were not going to disarm their People's Liberation Army, which would create problems in the course of negotiations. Rawal stressed that the sharp differences between the Maoists and the seven-party alliance on the management of arms, as well as on continuing Parliament and reinstating local bodies, meant it was critical that the alliance take a comprehensive approach to address these issues with the Maoists. Minendra Rijal, Spokesperson of Nepali Congress-Democratic (NC-D),agreed that the negotiations would be difficult with the Maoists "as they were in no way ready to give up arms." He noted that what Prachanda said publicly was not that important, a view echoed by Joshi, who said there was "nothing that important" in the interview. However, Sagar Rana, head of NC-D's Foreign Department, commented on Prachanda's distinction between the Maoist militia and its army. Prachanda had suggested that the police and Maoist militia should work together, hinting that only the Maoist army's weapons would be put under supervision, according to Rana. Comment -------------- ¶4. (C) Prachanda's interviewer seemed inexperienced in posing questions and did not vigorously challenge the guerrilla leader or ask a single question about the management of Maoist weapons. Prachanda's bold assertions and offensive posture during the interview underscores that there is no evidence for the popular hypothesis that the Maoists are seeking a "soft landing." We believe the interview received a wide viewership. MORIARTY