PARTY LEADERS WORRIED ABOUT MAOIST ACTIVITIES

C O N F I D E N T I A L KATHMANDU 001345 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/26/2016 TAGS: PGOV PTER EAID NP SUBJECT: PARTY LEADERS WORRIED ABOUT MAOIST ACTIVITIES REF: A. KATHMANDU 1329 ¶B. KATHMANDU 1268 Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty, Reasons, 1.4 (b/d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) In separate meetings, Nepali Congress-Democratic (NC-D) President Sher Bahadur Deuba and CPN-UML General Secretary Madhav Kumar Nepal both shared the USG's concern SIPDIS about Maoist activities, particularly the threat that the Maoists were undermining the government's legitimacy. They told the Ambassador that they were warning the Maoists to stop such activities. They worried that the violence was continuing, but that the police had not yet received clear instructions to act. They also remained troubled by royalists' ability to cause trouble. MK Nepal stressed the need to strengthen the National Human Rights Commission (NHRC),the Peace Secretariat, and the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR). He noted that perhaps NHRC could observe peace talks and suggested that the talks be videotaped to be able to demonstrate who was to blame should they fail. End Summary. Worried About Maoists -------------- ¶2. (C) The Ambassador expressed to Deuba on May 25 and MK Nepal on May 26 the USG's concern that the Maoists, by claiming they were a separate, parallel government and ramping up their extortion and intimidation, were attempting to show that the government was weak and had no authority. They seemed to be undercutting the parliamentary system and the seven-party alliance government. MK Nepal agreed that the most important problem facing the alliance was how to deal with the Maoists. Noting that he had spoken out about extortion three times already, Deuba said he would push the seven-party alliance to come out strongly on the issue. MK Nepal said that the government should tell the Maoists to dissolve all local governments. He reiterated the CPN-UML position on the need to restore local bodies, although acknowledged that the Maoists would object. Talking With Maoist Leader Mahara -------------- ¶3. (C) MK Nepal said he had had a two-hour meeting recently with Krishna Mahara, the head of the Maoist peace talks team, and Dinanath Sharma, another member of the Maoist team, during which he had stressed that the Maoists needed to stop all extortion. He suggested that they stop completely for at least a month to create an atmosphere of trust so the government and Maoists could sit together, put their grievances on the table and find a solution. MK Nepal said that the Maoist leadership had promised to try to curb extortion, although there could be a division of opinion within their ranks. He said that Mahara had explained that orders needed time to filter down to the ranks. Deuba said he planned to meet with Mahara the afternoon of May 25 and would warn him not to continue extorting or intimidating people, organizations or businesses. He noted he would also tell Mahara that the Maoists should disassociate themselves from violence (ref A). But Violence Continuing -------------- ¶4. (C) During the course of the conversation, MK Nepal recounted a number of recent incidents of Maoist intimidation or violence: -- In Kailali District (farwestern Nepal),two Maoists went to the CPN-UML District Secretary's home and demanded that the household prepare them meals. They threatened that if the house refused, they would return that evening with ten people. -- Maoists recently abducted two people in Kailali District and were still holding three people in Sarlahi District (south central Nepal). -- Maoists had issued instructions to households that they must go to demonstrations. MK Nepal lamented that the seven-party alliance had never issued that sort of order to intimidate people to participate. -- In Kathmandu, two or three Maoists were openly moving around with submachine guns on May 25. MK Nepal remarked that, although it was the responsibility of the police to arrest the Maoists, the security forces were helpless. They had no clear instructions and feared suspension if they acted on their own initiative. Need to Issue Orders To Security Forces -------------- ¶5. (C) MK Nepal noted that the Cabinet should hold a meeting on the security situation and Maoist actions. He worried about growing anarchy and the increased activity of "criminals and hooligans." Observing that the police were not acting, MK Nepal asked what the problem was? He continued that if police morale was not high, the government should empower them and issue orders. Both he and Deuba lamented the government was not acting quickly enough. MK Nepal blamed Prime Minister Koirala for not delegating enough authority to get things done and said he had advised the PM to act clearly and decisively. Deuba noted that people were saying that Home Minister Sitaula should exercise his authority. The Home Minister should take a strong position on law enforcement, but he had not. And Still Concerned About Royalists -------------- ¶6. (C) Both Deuba and MK Nepal said that they continued to have concerns about royalists. They speculated that both royalists and Maoists could have been involved in the recent violence across the country (ref A). The UML leader intimated that former Vice-Chairman Tulsi Giri and other royal advisors would be arrested, adding that royalists might be waiting for an appropriate moment to try to reassert themselves. The Ambassador congratulated him on the May 18 proclamation which had served to get the army under civilian control and put the King into a box (ref B). That said, MK Nepal also acknowledged the need to work with the security services. He bemoaned that the PM had not followed his advice to instruct Chief of Army Staff Thapa to issue a statement after the proclamation welcoming it and assuring the public that the army would act under civilian control. MK Nepal noted that Thapa had been standing by awaiting instructions, but that Koirala never acted. It was a "lost chance" to lower people's apprehensions about the military. Deuba discussed corruption by a handful of people in his party and also the Nepali Congress. He said that the Palace had put pressure on the Commission to Investigate the Abuse of Authority (CIAA) to clear them. He speculated that the Palace might attempt to bribe these members of Parliament to create problems. He planned to raise with Koirala the need to carefully handle this group of people. And Strengthen Institutions -------------- ¶7. (C) MK Nepal stressed the need to strengthen three institutions and requested international support to do so. He said the government planned to dissolve the current NHRC and appoint new commissioners. The reconstituted NHRC would play an important role in the whole peace process by organizing civil society, NGOs, and human rights groups to lead all monitoring efforts. Deuba had dismissed the possibility of using the current NHRC to monitor a code of conduct or cease-fire because it was discredited, but he had also noted the need to have strict, unbiased monitoring. MK Nepal identified the Peace Secretariat as another component that would do all the "homework, analysis and paperwork" for peace negotiations. He suggested that national and international experts should sit at the Secretariat to provide advice behind the scenes. He also pointed to the need to expand and empower OHCHR. Although Nepali national institutions should take the lead, he recognized that they would not be able to handle all the incidents and that an international role was necessary. Both national and international institutions would condemn and show concern about any violations. If the Maoists did not transform themselves, then they should be isolated. Looking Ahead to Peace Talks -------------- ¶8. (C) MK Nepal said that he thought a third-party "witness" to at least certain stages of the peace talks was necessary, but that India had serious reservations about it. He speculated that perhaps NHRC could employ someone to act as the reliable observer. He also suggested the possibility of recording and perhaps videotaping all the talks. Deuba asserted that Nepal needed an international eminent personality to observe negotiations. Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) Deuba and MK Nepal are aware that the Maoists are threatening the seven-party alliance government's legitimacy. They know they are walking a tightrope. If they move too quickly against the Maoists, the public will blame them for failing to grab a chance at peace. If they do not move quickly enough, the situation could spin out of control. But for now, they are hoping that by conceding on some of the Maoist demands and showing that the government is acting in good faith, they can prevail upon the Maoists to come into the mainstream. That said, they also recognize the need to prepare for the possibility that the Maoists may not settle for anything less than absolute power. MORIARTY