JUBILANT POLITICAL PARTY LEADERS STILL WORRIED

C O N F I D E N T I A L KATHMANDU 001185 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/09/2016 TAGS: PGOV PTER PREL EAID MASS NP SUBJECT: JUBILANT POLITICAL PARTY LEADERS STILL WORRIED ABOUT MAOISTS Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty, Reasons, 1.4 (b/d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) During separate May 2 discussions with SCA Assistant Secretary Richard Boucher, NSC Senior Director Elisabeth SIPDIS Millard, and the Ambassador, political party leaders explained that the government was taking preliminary shape and moving toward constituent assembly elections. CPN-UML General Secretary Madhav Kumar Nepal said that the main task of the government was to negotiate with the Maoists and bring them into the political mainstream. MK Nepal noted that the international community needed to be involved in monitoring the cease-fire. The leaders agreed with A/S Boucher about the need for the seven-party alliance to stay united to bring the Maoists into the political process. That said, the parties are still considering how the new government and the Parliament should function. End Summary. Alliance Will Stay United ... -------------- ¶2. (C) A/S Boucher pressed CPN-UML leaders as well as Nepali Congress (Democratic) President Sher Bahadur Deuba and Nepal Sadbhavana Party - Ananda Devi (NSP-AD) leader Sarita Giri on the need for the seven-party alliance to stay united. UML General Secretary MK Nepal agreed that the parties had to work together because of the difficult challenges the government faced. He stressed that "this alliance will work." In a subsequent discussion, however, Giri (of a smaller party in the seven-party alliance) said that her party was waiting to decide whether to join the government. She insisted that the seven-part alliance, and not the government or the Parliament, should determine the course of negotiations with the Maoists. ... But What Will Happen? -------------- ¶3. (C) UML General Secretary MK Nepal, noting that the government was taking preliminary shape, indicated that there was still a lot of debate and uncertainties about many issues. Contrary to a statement made earlier by Prime Minister GP Koirala to A/S Boucher that Parliament would continue to meet until constituent assembly elections were held (septel),MK Nepal said that it still needed to be clarified whether Parliament would be in session for weeks or months. Opinions were mixed as to whether Parliament should stay open during negotiations with the Maoists. MK Nepal said there were also differing opinions about what Parliament could accomplish this session. Some felt that the Parties should first show their commitment to change by amending the Constitution; others believed that all revisions should be done later. Amending The Constitution -------------- ¶4. (C) MK Nepal said that, while the government was interested in amending the Constitution to limit the King's powers, put the army under civilian control, and enable constituent assembly elections, these things could not happen overnight. The UML leaders explained that amending the Constitution required the approval of two-thirds of the full Parliament - including the Upper House, which currently had only 18 of its constitutionally-mandated 60 members. Bharat Mohan Adhikari, UML Central Working Committee, said that he thought that within three months the government could get more than 40 members in the Upper House to enable a vote. Future Role For King? -------------- ¶5. (C) With respect to the question of whether Nepalis would accept a ceremonial King, MK Nepal noted that the King had to change his behavior and mindset and convince the people that he had done so. He added that the "people's wrath" against the King might diminish with time, although there was no guarantee. He said that the King would probably have six months to a year to convince the people. Sarita Giri, of NSP-AD (a party based in the terai),doubted whether the people would want a ceremonial monarch. She explained that the Kathmandu-based royalty had subjugated other ethnic and indigenous groups who would opt for a republic. Working With The Maoists -------------- ¶6. (C) MK Nepal said the government had to determine whether the Maoists were genuinely interested in integrating into the political process. He stressed that before they could join an interim government, their arms would have to be "managed." MK Nepal noted that perhaps the Maoists would opt not to be a part of an interim government, but to move directly to constituent assembly elections. In either case, the international community should manage the Maoist arms. Role of the International Community -------------- ¶7. (C) The CPN-UML leader stressed that the international community needed to be involved in three key areas: monitoring a cease-fire, monitoring a code of conduct signed by both sides, and supervising the decommissioning of Maoist arms. He said that someone needed to guarantee the political commitments of the Maoists. A/S Boucher emphasized that the way to guarantee the Maoist political commitment is for the Maoists to turn in their weapons and make it impossible for them to take up arms again. U.S. Wants To Help -------------- ¶8. (C) A/S Boucher told all the political leaders that the U.S. would try to assist Nepal in many ways. If Nepal set up a process of decommissioning and demobilization, we would help. We were also looking at ways we could support the political parties, the Election Commission, and the CIAA. We were also prepared to provide economic and development support, and security assistance. He noted that the army had accepted civilian rule. We would wait for the civilian government to tell us how and when to help. MK Nepal responded that the new government needed help as it had a lot to accomplish. He also expressed his appreciation for U.S. support, noting that there could have been a "big massacre" if the King had not transferred power. He added that U.S. public statements had "inspired the people of Nepal." Need To Do "Something" On Economic And Social Programs -------------- -------------- ¶9. (C) MK Nepal acknowledged that the government needed to "do something" on social and economic programs immediately, even though the government's main focus had to be on constituent assembly elections and dealing with the Maoists. The new government had to deal with people's problems and suffering. Comment -------------- ¶10. (C) The new government is just getting started, sorting through the issues and trying to balance the need to respond to public pressure with the need to preserve democracy from a possible Maoist takeover. ¶11. (U) A/S Boucher did not have the chance to clear this cable. MORIARTY