GOVERNMENT RECIPROCATES CEASE-FIRE, LIFTS MAOIST

C O N F I D E N T I A L KATHMANDU 001129 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/INS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/04/2016 TAGS: PGOV PTER NP SUBJECT: GOVERNMENT RECIPROCATES CEASE-FIRE, LIFTS MAOIST TERRORIST TAG REF: A. KATHMANDU 1063 ¶B. KATHMANDU 381 ¶C. 05 KATHMANDU 1653 Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty. Reasons 1.4 (b,d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) The Cabinet on May 3 declared an indefinite cease-fire, and announced it would remove the terrorist label, allowing the Maoists to operate above ground throughout the country, all with the purpose of preparing for talks with the Maoists. The Cabinet also annulled the February 8 municipal elections, eliminated the positions of zonal and regional administrators, and revoked appointments to district development committees. The Cabinet announced the formation of a committee to investigate security forces' suppression of the people's movement and awarded compensation to those killed during the April 6 to 24 people's movement. The cease-fire announcement came without any mention of a code of conduct, and security forces are still waiting for guidance from the government. End SQmary. Cabinet Announces Cease-fire... -------------- ¶2. (C) Newly sworn-in Deputy Prime Minister K.P. Oli announced the May 3 Cabinet decision saying, "breaking with normal practice, we have made public the decisions immediately after the Cabinet meeting out of respect for the wishes of the people expressed in the streets." Oli said that the government had called the Maoists for talks and "in due course" would announce a negotiating team. "We will form ours while the rebels will form theirs. The process will start very soon," Oli told the gathered media. Indicating that the cease-fire decision was flexible and would depend on the progress of the talks, Oli said it would be in force "until further decision on the issue." He also expressed hope that both sides would honor the cease-fire. ¶3. (U) Inviting the Maoists to talk, the Cabinet on May 3 declared an indefinite cease-fire, reciprocating the Maoist April 27 announcement of a three month-long cease-fire (ref A). The day-old Cabinet also removed the "terrorist" tag on the Maoists and started the process of removing the Interpol Red Corner Notice on Maoist leaders. (Note: The Interpol Notice requires countries to extradite Maoist leaders to Nepal for prosecution; removing the terrorist label allows the Maoists to come above ground without fear of arrest. Maoists already seem to be operating freely in all areas of the country. In Kathmandu their presence and activities, including extortion, are widespread and noticeable. End note.) Though not part of the announcement, some hinted that the government would soon begin releasing jailed rebel leaders. The Cabinet made this announcement with no mention of a code of conduct or monitoring plan, despite GP Koirala's May 2 assertion to SCA A/S Boucher that civil society and international monitoring would be necessary (septel). ...Annuls February Municipal Elections -------------- ¶4. (C) The May 3 Cabinet meeting also annulled the February 8 municipal elections (ref B),which the seven-party alliance had actively boycotted. The government revoked Palace appointments to District Development Committees and appointments to all regional and zonal administrators, which had been decried as a Panchayat era administrative structure that the King had reinstated (ref C). Although many people on the streets were calling for the government to revoke all ordinances promulgated since February 1, 2005, the government had yet to make an official decision on the issue. The next Cabinet meeting is expected to discuss the formation of a three-member review committee to investigate the "black ordinances" promulgated by the King's government. On May 3, the Cabinet announced the formation of a judicial commission to report on the atrocities perpetrated by the security forces during the 19-day mass uprising (April 6-24),and promised to provide one million Nepali rupees (14,285 USD) to the next-of-kin of those killed in the uprising. Home Minister Krishna Sitoula said that the government commission would also study the condition of those injured and provide them with appropriate compensation and necessary treatment. Bold Steps To Bring Maoists to Mainstream -------------- ¶5. (C) On May 3, Oli told the Ambassador that the Cabinet had a process in mind when it had made the cease-fire offer. The seven parties would meet to agree on their bottom line to negotiate with the Maoists. He acknowledged that "things were moving fast." Oli gave no clear answer when asked about monitoring the cease-fire. Sher Bahadur Deuba, NC (D) President, expressed surprise and slight disappointment that the government had chosen to announce a cease-fire without first establishing a code of conduct or getting anything from the Maoists in return. He agreed with the Ambassador, who noted that this cease-fire was similar to 2003 when the Maoists were able to come above ground with their weapons without fear of the security forces. Gopal Man Shrestha (NC (D)),the new Minister for Planning and Works, told the Ambassador that the parties needed to be united and clear on what they wanted before entering into negotiations with the Maoists. Security Forces Waiting for Direction -------------- ¶6. (C) The security forces are still waiting for guidance from the government regarding the cease-fire decision. A staff member in the office of the Inspector General of Police told Emboff that the police had received no direction from the Cabinet. Thus the police were awaiting a code of conduct or other directives on how to handle the situation. A Royal Nepalese Army (RNA) source told Emboff that they were hoping to have an RNA statement on the cease-fire in the next few days. He said that the army would probably allow Maoists to operate openly as long as they did not display weapons. However, he expected that the security forces would still be allowed to arrest Maoists who were operating with weapons. Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) This is the third cease-fire by the government during the ten years of the Maoist insurgency. The 2001 and 2003 peace negotiations during the two previous cease-fires failed to yield results; the sticking point then was the Maoist demand for elections to a constituent assembly and the drafting of a new constitution. Now the government has already agreed to this demand and is taking many additional steps to bring the Maoists to the table. ¶8. (C) The government may feel its concessions will force the Maoists to reveal their true intentions, because the Maoists will have no excuse to reject the government's offer to bring them into the mainstream. We fear, however, that the government's unilateral concessions will probably embolden the Maoists to take a harder line. MORIARTY