WORRIED FORMER PM THAPA URGES KING TO ACT

C O N F I D E N T I A L KATHMANDU 001000 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/INS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/18/2016 TAGS: PGOV PTER PREL NP SUBJECT: WORRIED FORMER PM THAPA URGES KING TO ACT IMMEDIATELY REF: A. KATHMANDU 993 ¶B. KATHMANDU 929 ¶C. KATHMANDU 971 Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty. Reasons 1.4 (b/d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) On April 17, the King expressed to former Prime Minister Surya Bahadur Thapa a determination to hand over power to the political parties as quickly as possible. King Gyanendra had a similar conversation with royal confidant Prabhakar Rana, also on April 17. Both Thapa and Rana expressed optimism that the King was getting ready to do the right thing in the next few days. Both acknowledged, however, the King's history of going back on commitments. End Summary. Thapa Gives Tough Message to King -------------- ¶2. (C) On April 18, Surya Bahadur Thapa, former Prime Minister and current Chairman of Rastriya Jyanashakti Party, told the Ambassador that he had spoken very frankly to the King and was "a bit hopeful" that the King would follow his advice to hand over power to the political parties. Thapa said that in a one-on-one meeting with the King on April 17 (ref A),he had stressed the necessity of the King acting "within three days" or else the Maoists would be in a position to take over the country. (Note: The seven-party alliance plans a mass meeting in Kathmandu on April 20. End note.) Thapa had highlighted the dire situation of the country and stressed that the King was supposed to be the protector of the Constitution, but instead had broken it. Thapa stated he had conveyed the following points to King Gyanendra: The King first needed to be clear in his mind on what he was willing to do (ref B),then he could have dialogue on how to fix what he had broken. No one but the King had the responsibility to act first; however, once the King made clear that he wanted to be a constitutional rather than autocratic monarch, then friends would come forward and help. ¶3. (C) Cautioning that the King had not been clear to the seven-party alliance in his New Year's Day message (ref C) and noting that there was no honest broker in Nepal, Thapa said he had suggested the King should informally ask a foreign intermediary such as the U.S. or Indian Ambassador to assist in dialogue. This would help to ensure that both the King and the Parties hold to their commitments. Thapa had noted that other issues, such as a constituent assembly, elections, and dialogue with Maoists, could then be discussed step-by-step with the Parties. Thapa had pointed out that, if the King agreed to hand over power, it would not be difficult with the help of legal experts to bind/limit his powers under Article 127 of the Constitution. King Promises to Implement Thapa's Advice -------------- ¶4. (C) Thapa remarked that he had found the King a willing listener. The King had admitted that breaking the Constitution and taking power was "my mistake" and that he did not blame anyone else. According to Thapa, the King thought Thapa's advice was wise and "very useful." "I will try to implement what you suggest," the King told Thapa. The King had added, "I have already decided to step down and act according to the Constitution." However, Thapa had noted that the King repeatedly worried that by stepping down he would negatively impact the future of the monarchy. Thapa had stressed that King Gyanendra would be seen as responding to the calls of the people if he acted, and would bring an end to the monarchy if he did not act. The King had responded that he understood, and was "mentally prepared to act." Despite the King's promise, Thapa worried to the Ambassador that "in the corner of his mind, the King thinks he could act differently." Thapa noted that the King had expressed doubt about the leaders of the seven-party alliance, complaining they had acted "irresponsibly" in the past. Thapa had not disagreed, but had re-emphasized to the King that he had to deal with the seven-party alliance, as appointing a Prime Minister would not help the current situation. Thapa reiterated the importance of informally enlisting the Indian or U.S. Ambassadors to ensure that everyone entered into dialogue in good faith. King Not Getting Good Advice -------------- ¶5. (C) Thapa explained that he had spoken briefly to the King at the Royal Nepalese Army's New Year's celebration on April 14 and at that point had found the King "gloomy" and without a true picture of the situation in Nepal. Thapa opined that the King's advisers were either afraid to tell him the truth, or were afraid to admit that things were not turning out as they had advised the King they would. Thus, Thapa lamented, no one was telling the King the true situation of the country. Thapa welcomed the opportunity to do so when the King invited him to the palace on April 17, and reported that the King appeared "happy" on April 17, as if he had made a decision to act. Thapa noted that the King had asked him on April 14 whether Thapa would agree to come if the King invited him. Thapa replied to the King, "your call to me is overdue." There is No Time -------------- ¶6. (C) Thapa said he had emphasized to the King "clearly" that the King had "no time at all" to decide to act. Thapa stressed to the King that he was "surrounded" and that the ground the King was on was "rapidly shifting away;" the Maoists were at the King's front door. He warned the "monarchy will collapse at any moment." Even if the Parties started out in control, soon all power would be in the Maoists' hands and "there would be no democracy in Nepal and there would be a People's Liberation Army in place of the Royal Nepalese Army." Thapa told the Ambassador that he had privately contacted Nepali Congress and CPN-UML leaders to urge them not to give the Maoists the opportunity to take over the country. Thapa opined that the Parties were scared of the Maoists and were eager for the King to reach out to them. Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) The King also told royal confidant Prabhakar Rana on April 17 that he had determined that he must act quickly to turn over power to the political parties (septel). We will see whether the King does the necessary over the next few days to rescue the situation that is rapidly spinning out of his control. MORIARTY