PRT/KABUL - AFGHANS REACTION TO LONDON

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 000865 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR SA/FO (AMB MQUINN),SA/A, S/CR, SA/PAB, S/CT, EUR/RPM STATE PASS TO USAID FOR AID/ANE, AID/DCHA/DG NSC FOR AHARRIMAN, KAMEND OSD FOR BREZINSKI CENTCOM FOR CG CFC-A, CG CJTF-76, POLAD REL NATO/AUST/NZ/ISAF E.O. 12958 N/A TAGS: EAID ECON PREL PGOV PTER AF SUBJECT: PRT/KABUL - AFGHANS REACTION TO LONDON CONFERENCE CAUTIOUSLY POSITIVE Ref: (A) Kabul 000424 (B) Kabul 000526 KABUL 00000865 001.2 OF 002 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Reaction in Afghanistan to the London Conference has been largely positive, with a surprisingly high percentage of the population having heard of the results and impressed with the USD10.5 billion in pledges. Significant skepticism remains, however, on the part of Afghans who doubt they will benefit individually from this aid, and it will take appropriate follow through on the part of the international community to allay these doubts. End Summary. International/Local Media Coverage -------------- ¶2. (SBU) International media, including APTN, Reuters, BBC, CNN, NBC, CBS, New York Times, Washington Post, had full scale live coverage of the conference. Most local TV and radio stations accompanied President Hamid Karzai and had live coverage of the conference. Those that did not accompany also gave extensive coverage. As a result, virtually 80 to 90% of Afghans know about the London Conference, the outcomes, and particularly the donation amounts. An Afghan USAID Information Specialist Afghan) personally heard people remarking that "We didn't know the amount of donations after the Tokyo and Berlin meetings, but this time almost every single Afghan knows how much money was donated for Afghanistan in the London Conference." Expectations/mentality:Kabul -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The USD10.5 billion was clearly beyond local expectations. Local radio and TV "man-on- the-street" interviews indicated that 50 to 60% of the people seem satisfied and happy with the results. While pleased at the level of international commitments, the majority think that this USD10.5 billion USD will be spent in a similar manner as the Tokyo and Berlin donations were spent. They expressed dissatisfaction with that process, which they regard as having focused on the construction of buildings in urban areas and on NGO's, and not fully addressing the systemic issues related to the country's economic infrastructure. They tend to have little expectation that they will see major changes with respect to their own lives in the areas of security, corruption, and unemployment as a result of London. They frequently wonder why the GoA does not build factories, dams, hydro-power, and other large-scale facilities that they believe would reduce the high unemployment rate. In the Countryside -------------- ¶4. (SBU) When we requested comments from AID and State officers stationed in the provinces, we KABUL 00000865 002.2 OF 002 heard many of the same themes. Local radio and television (limited to only the larger cities) had extensive coverage of London, especially of President Karzai's speech, and a high percentage of locals are aware of the general outcomes. However, governors and other local officials only mentioned it when prompted, and their reactions, while positive, were guarded. There was some optimism about the Aid Effectiveness discussions in London that would, they believed, funnel more money through the GoA, and that they hoped would bring more funding and projects to the countryside, to their villages and to them individually. There was also general distrust of NGOs and their projects, and a wait-and-see attitude toward how the new pledges would play out. ¶5. (SBU) Comment: There is a general sense throughout the country that Afghans are nervous and/or afraid about their future. Many trust neither the GoA nor NGOs. This is understandable; despite the significant funds already invested in Afghanistan, the abysmal state of the infrastructure after 27 years of conflict, the logistical difficulties of doing programs in the provinces, and the continuing insurgency have meant that what assistance has been delivered has been spread thinly. Ten plus billion dollars, spent wisely, should help to allay some of this skepticism. This will be our focus as we work to implement the Afghanistan Compact. End comment. ¶6. (U) Dushanbe minimize considered. NEUMANN