STRIVING FOR AN AFGHAN-LED DONOR STRATEGY - "FROM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KABUL 005918 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/FO, SCA/RA, SCA/A AND EB/IDF/ODF DEPT PASS AID/ANE TREASURY FOR LMCDONALD, ABAUKOL, AND JCIORCIARI E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/19/2016 TAGS: ECON EAID PREL AF SUBJECT: STRIVING FOR AN AFGHAN-LED DONOR STRATEGY - "FROM COMPACT TO IMPACT" REF: STATE 189298 Classified By: AMB Ronald E. Neumann for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). 1.(C) SUMMARY: JCMB Co-Chairs Special Economic Advisor to the President (SEAP) Ishaq Nadiri and UNAMA Special Representative Tom Koenigs generally have welcomed reftel donor project menu proposal, but underscore that the list should be developed through the JCMB/Consultative Group process. This would reinforce the JCMB as the single donor coordination mechanism and protect the GOA's scarce capacity from fragmentation. It would also reinforce UNAMA's role as international coordinator and partner in the process. Koenigs has provided a written response on these points, and raised the importance of shaping the proposed outreach strategy to animate donor buy-in and ensure &impact8 (see text in para 7). Nadiri thinks reftel list provides a useful notional starting point and suggests that the concept could be put forward at the Berlin JCMB to highlight the need for coordinated but concrete actions. We concur with that assessment and plan of action. Nadiri also welcomed the proposed February timing of our next Strategic Partnership talks, as an opportunity to advance our bilateral work plan in the wake of the Berlin meeting. He also asked for USG support in guarding against any further additions to the busy international assistance conference schedule facing Afghanistan in the first half of 2007. END SUMMARY. 2.(C) Pursuant to reftel demarche, the Ambassador recently had several consultations with UNAMA Special Representive Tom Koenigs to discuss a way forward on donor outreach in the lead up to the January 30-31 high-level JCMB in Berlin. Building on this groundwork, Econ Counselor, Deputy Econ Counselor, and AIDOFF met with SEAP and JCMB Co-chair Nadiri and ANDS Executive Director Farhady, on December 14, to present reftel demarche and elaborate USG thinking on an Afghan-led donor strategy. Nadiri and Farhady, in turn, indicated their desire to discuss with us both planning for JCMB Berlin and the Strategic Partnership Dialogue. Nadiri emphasized that the busy international conference schedule facing Afghanistan in the first half of 2007 - Berlin JCMB, Strategic Partnership, Afghanistan Development Forum (ADF),
Spring JCMB, IMF/World Bank spring meetings, and the Agha Khan-supported private sector-GOA dialogue - will seriously stress the GOA's limited capacity. It is critical, he underscored, that no more major international conferences on Afghanistan be added to the calendar. 3.(C) Responding to our talking points, Nadiri agreed that more process is not the answer, it is accomplishments. That's why we unveiled the slogan "From Compact to Impact" at the November JCMB, he stated. Looking to the Berlin JCMB meeting, Nadiri made it clear that the GOA will look for participants to once again affirm the London Compact and that the JCMB is the only mechanism for donor coordination. Noting that NATO is a JCMB member, he made clear that the GOA opposes the creation of any new parallel mechanisms, like the NATO Contact Group, to the JCMB process. 4.(C) In terms of preparing for this JCMB, Nadiri asked that donors discuss with the GOA their project ideas prior to the meeting. It was important that such discussion take place before donors plan their assistance. New projects need to focus on Afghanistan's critical priorities - rural economic development throughout the country, as well as governance and security. All three issues need to be addressed in a synchronized, coherent fashion, he said. Fortunately, in his view, the work on Afghanistan's roads not only demonstrates the effectiveness of the JCMB, but provides a useful template for this next phase of work. Nadiri said that he anticipated that ANDS and UNAMA would convene joint GoA-donor Consultative Group meetings in January to prepare for the Berlin meeting. He said the challenge is to make the JCMB process more focused on problem-solving ) including identifying which donors, would subscribe to address specific needs, as well as when and how targets would be achieved. 5.(C) Econ Counselor passed a copy of the "project menu" (reftel) to Nadiri and Farhadi. Both welcomed the notional menu, but noted that there was no proposed list for the USG. KABUL 00005918 002 OF 003 They viewed the project menu as a useful starting point in the process, but indicated they thought a final list needed to emerge from the JCMB consultative group process that compares existing projects with new donor proposed projects and identifies project gaps. They wanted to consider whether a prioritized GoA project proposal list could be readied in time for presentation to donors by the GOA at Berlin. As they saw it, the GoA would identify priorities and ask donors to step forward to meet the need. In any case, they said this should be done without listing any particular countries. UNAMA, they concluded, will need to be a full partner in this process. 6.(C) On the Strategic Partnership, Nadiri welcomed the proposed February timing of the next dialogue in Kabul, because it would be valuable in developing a bilateral work plan to follow up the Berlin meeting. Nadiri noted the U.S. commitments to the ANDS in several fields. Through our "special relationship," he stated, we should use the meetings to strengthen our management of existing projects and look at ways the U.S. can fill gaps in the list of scheduled projects. Once we can calibrate our cooperation, Nadiri confidently stated, we will accomplish more, and we will be able to reach out and bring the rest of the donors on board. 7.(C) UNAMA Special Representative Koenigs has also generally welcomed the U.S. initiative on strengthened donor outreach and coordination. His key, however, is how to shape the proposed outreach strategy to animate donor buy-in and ensure real impact on the ground. Subequent to his conversation with the Ambassador, Koenigs has forwarded to us the following written response that elaborates on UNAMA,s point of view: (SBU) BEGIN TEXT: ¶A. COMMENTS ¶1. We share the concern about the importance of demonstrating tangible progress. ¶2. We appreciate the commitment for an Afghan-led approach consistent with the priorities of the Afghanistan National Development Strategy and the COMPACT. ¶3. We agree with the importance of ensuring consistency with the principles espoused in the Afghanistan compact, which for increasing Afghan ownership in establishing development priorities and strategies as well as the coordination of donor assistance. ¶4. The Government of Afghanistan should be on board - specifically Finance Minister Ahady and Prof Nadiri. They have often talked about demonstrating real progress on the ground. At the last JCMB, Prof Nadiri made the point of moving from Compact to Impact. ¶5. Such approach should help focus our dialogue with government on ways to accelerate implementation. Obviously, the government may use this dialogue to add to the agenda a discussion on new resources. It will be opportune to elaborate on the equal importance and the mutually reinforcing linkages between delivering/implementing on resources provided and mobilizing new resources. ¶6. How this approach could be presented to donors listed has to be discussed. Donors should be motivated to buy in. Maybe the list presented in this form is not attractive enough? ¶7. Most of the projects listed are on-going ones, and it does make sense to try and put more emphasis on them. However, these are not likely to create impact, in the short run, for even if completed, the economic spin-off will take time, though delivering on specific projects may demonstrate increased effectiveness of Government and of donors. Similar, getting countries to put in money to the government budget (ARTF, debt elimination etc) or to supply diesel generators to Kabul may not persuade fence-sitters, over the next six months, even though they are essential. The winter months, in any case, see a slow-down in construction work. ¶B. POSSIBLE NEXT STEPS ¶1. Meet with Ahady and Nadiri. They must buy in, approach different donors and ask for specific ongoing/new projects to KABUL 00005918 003 OF 003 be given the highest priority ) we could facilitate. Next JCMB may adopt this approach and ask individual donors to speak about progress on each priority, project. ¶2. Discuss implications of adopt-a-province,. Are donors and government comfortable? Would it bring in additional resources, or would just be a case of reallocation? Would individual donors have pockets deep enough to meet the heightened expectations? ¶3. We should use this opportunity to help government draw up a list of projects than would deliver in the short-term, especially essential basic social services and employment. END TEXT. 8.(C) COMMENT: Clearly, the JCMB Co-Chairs welcome the concept of reftel proposal, but strongly believe that the approach will need fine-tuning. In their view, the GOA must develop a project list through the JCMB/Consultative Group process and present it in that light to donors. This, they believe would protect the JCMB as the single donor coordination mechanism, and thus protect scarce GOA development from fragmentation through the creation of parallel processes. The critical issue for all is moving away from process to action - "From Compact to Impact." We concur. END COMMENT. NEUMANN