GOA'S PLANS AND EXPECTATIONS FOR THE CROSS-BORDER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 004990 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/FO DAS GASTRIGHT, SCA/A STATE PASS TO USAID FOR AID/ANE, AID/DCHA/DG NSC FOR AHARRIMAN CENTCOM FOR CG CFC-A. CG CJTF-76 POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/11/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER AF SUBJECT: GOA'S PLANS AND EXPECTATIONS FOR THE CROSS-BORDER JIRGA INITIATIVE Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i. R. Norland, for Reasons 1.4 (B) AND (D) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) NSA Dr. Zalmay Rasool met with Charge on October 11 to review the GOA's expectations regarding the grand jirgas agreed to during the September 27 trilateral dinner with President Bush. Rasool said the focus should be on security issues in the border region and the goal would be to mobilize civil society against terrorism. Agreements by tribal elders on actions to counter terrorism and on prohibitions against violence will have "moral force" more powerful than law and go a long way to bringing security to the region. Rasool expects the parallel jirgas in Afghanistan and Pakistan to each last one or two days, with both President Karzai and President Mucharraf attending both events. President Karzai is aiming for dates in late November or early December if possible. The "paired" locations would likely be Peshawar and Kandahar or, alternatively, Quetta and Jalalabad. ¶2. (C) The GOA would like for there to be parallel, wide, national representation in both jirgas, and hopes the U.S. and the UN would actively support a small bilateral commission responsible for planning, including overseeing the selection process. The GOA will name its point of contact (and senior commission member) soon -- after consulting with the U.S. and the UN. While the GOA would like strong U.S. engagement during the planning process, Rasool described the international community role during the jirgas themselves as a "monitor or observer -- as during the elections." This would lead to the U.S. having a "facilitative" role as both sides followed up on the commitments made. Rasool underlined need for international help on logistics and security for the jirgas themselves. Karzai has scheduled a meeting with UN SRSG Koenigs and Charge on October 12 to further outline the GOA on the jirga process. End Summary. -------------- -------------- The Agenda: Security; The Goal: Moral Commitments -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) Charge, A/DCM, and POLCOUNS met with NSA Rasool on October 11 to review President Karzai's latest thinking on the agenda, goals, and plans for the parallel Afghan and Pakistani grand jirgas agreed to during the September 27 trilateral meeting at the White House. Rasool said the agenda would be "mobilizing civil society against terrorism," in short "dealing with security issues in the (cross-border) region." Rasool agreed tangible confidence-building measures and development incentives might be useful, but underlined that, in his view, the key goals were agreements, reached by discussion and then consensus among the tribal leaders attending and representing the groups in the region. There would be agreements "to do some things and to prohibit some things" in order to reduce violence and counter terrorism. He emphasized that, in tribal culture, "these agreements become absolute commitments and have great moral force." -------------- -------------- The Structure: Parallel Structure and Participation -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) Rasool confirmed Afghanistan expects two, parallel jirgas, one on each side of the border. Each would last a day or two. President Karzai and President Musharraf would attend both. Asked about likely location, he said the jirgas would be in the region, in cities that have facilities for the meetings and can handle the numbers, which he predicted would be over a thousand for each. To avoid concentrating both jirgas in one region, if the Pakistanis decide to hold theirs in Peshawar, the Afghan jirga will be in Kandahar. If the Pakistanis decide on Quetta, Afghanistan will choose Jalalabad. KABUL 00004990 002 OF 002 ¶5. (C) According to Rasool, Afghanistan would like to extend the idea of parallelism to participation. Acknowledging the process will be controversial, Rasool proposed a small commission -- five or so members from Pakistan and from Afghanistan. Supported by the U.S. and UN representatives, the two countries would negotiate guidelines for choosing participation in both jirgas, with the U.S. and UN overseeing the process, including selection, to ensure that both jirgas have "genuine representation -- so neither side can load its list." (Note: Other senior Afghans have expressed concern that Musharraf (some also mention Karzai) will work to exclude participation of those unwilling to follow the government's script. End Note) Rasool said the idea is to have national representatives as a complement to the tribal participants. "We do not want this to be a Pashtun jirga." Parliament, whose members represent the different provinces, would need to be included, "but not all members." ¶6. (C) Rasool confirmed that the process would be run from the Palace rather than any ministry. Rasool himself would be one of the five individuals who would serve on the commission. He said President Karzai is considering several candidates and would name the GOA's point of contact (and senior planning commission member for Afghanistan) very shortly. He volunteered that the person to be named would be discussed with the U.S. prior to any announcement, adding that both the U.S. and the UN would be invited to vet the list of proposed participants in the Afghan jirga itself. -------------- Timing and IC Role -------------- ¶7. (C) President Karzai is still aiming for dates late in November or early in December for the jirgas, according to Rasool. He underlined that this will be possible only with significant international support, not just on the planning and selection commission, but on logistics and particularly security. International participation in the jirgas themselves will be as "monitors or observers -- as during the elections. This, according to Rasool, will facilitate a third IC role in the post-jurga period -- as guarantors to implementation of whatever decisions are made. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) In addition to discussing this with us, the GOA has also reached out to UNAMA. The GOA appears to see the U.S. and the UN jointly as providing the necessary international community support for the jirgas. Zarzai has asked to meet with UN SRSG Tom Koenigs and Charge late on October 12 to further outline GOA thinking. End Comment. NORLAND