THE AFGHAN TWILIGHT ZONE: PROPOSAL FOR A NEW PRIME

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 000467

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SA/FO AMBASSADOR QUINN, S/CT, SA/A
NSC FOR AHARRIMAN, KAMEND
CENTCOM FOR POLAD, CG CFA-A, CG CJTF-76
USAID FOR AID/ANE, AID/DCHA/DG

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/03/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM AF
SUBJECT: THE AFGHAN TWILIGHT ZONE: PROPOSAL FOR A NEW PRIME
MINISTER?

Classified By: AMBASSADOR RONALD NEUMANN FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Several well-known members of Parliament
(MPs),including Qanooni, Rabbani, and Fahim, have allegedly
begun discussing the creation of the position of Prime
Minister. The proposal has not yet been brought to the floor
of the Parliament and the MPs' motives are still unclear, but
it is likely that they stem from a desire to weaken the power
of the President and/or create a more "controllable" office
within the hierarchy of Afghan government. PolOffs cautioned
their informant that such a radical change to the
government's structure would require major constitutional
revisions and would likely be seen by the majority of the
Afghan populace as a Tajik versus Pashtun offensive. Post
sees nothing good coming from a drastic change in the
structure of the GOA so early in the life of its new
Parliament, and will argue with contacts that this proposal
should not go beyond the private discussion stage. We will
pass to Speaker Qanooni Ambassador Neumann's clear opposition
to the idea. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) In a typically bizarre example of the unpredictability
of Afghan politics, well-known political contact Zaid Haidary
(protect) met with PolOffs on February 2 to inform us of
conversations among top MPs regarding a proposal to institute
a new Prime Minister's office within the current structure of
the GOA. Haidary had referred to similar rumblings during a
previous meeting in late January, but it was the first time
that he had mentioned specifics about the plan. The main
instigators, he explained, were Younus Qanooni, Marshal
Fahim, ex-President Rabbani, and Wolesi Jirga MP Sayed Mansur
Nadiri (an ex-mujahadeen commander from Baghlan),all of whom
plan to meet in the next week to discuss the idea further.
If agreed, they would call for a Loya Jirga in Kabul and
institute the Prime Minister as an administrative leader and
"political partner" to President Karzai.


3. (C) Upon hearing that the Prime Minister proposal was
progressing more seriously than had previously been
explained, PolOffs pointed out that adding a new Prime
Minister to the current government would represent a major
structural change in the GOA. International donors were
unlikely to go along with such a proposal, given the
resources that have been put into developing the current
structure, and with only one month of legislative experience
under its belt (much of it taken up by the Eid recess),
Parliament has yet to pass any major legislation, and no one
has had time to determine how well the current structure
operates in Afghanistan. PolOffs noted that calling for a
Loya Jirga at this early state would throw the country into
political and administrative chaos, and might be regarded
(particularly by Karzai) as an attempted coup d'etat.


4. (C) While Haidary was unclear on the MPs' motives for the
Prime Minister proposal, he discussed with PolOffs the
possibility that the MPs were simply trying to weaken
President Karzai's leadership, either by dividing his
constitutional powers between his current office and a new
Prime Minister's, or by adding a new leadership position with
the GOA into which they (Qanooni, Rabbani, and Mansur) could
place someone more "controllable" than Hamed Karzai. PolOff
predicted that any move to institute the new office would be
seen by the Afghan populace as a Tajik-based offensive
against Karzai's Pashtun-majority leadership. After much
gnashing of teeth, Haidary agreed that the idea should be
postponed for at least a year and said he would let PolOffs
know of any further developments by the primary players.

COMMENT
--------------


5. (C) As difficult as it may be to believe that Qanooni,
Rabbani, Fahim, and Mansur may be plotting to change the
Constitution so early in the game, Zaid Haidary's credentials
as a political contact are impeccable. He is a man with
indisputable access to the main players, as well as to the
majority of Afghan leadership. Upper level politicians,
including a wide variety of MPs, routinely gather for social
events in his home.


6. (C) Unlike the previous meeting, Haidary seemed to want to
use the February 2 get-together to gain a sense of how the
USG would react to the proposal so that he could pass this
information along to his colleagues. PolOffs were explicit
in expressing their doubts about the wisdom of the proposal.
As with most new suggestions by Afghan politicians, this one
is likely rooted in either: (a) a desire for personal gain or
position; (b) a desire for revenge against an enemy - in this
case, the man who beat them all in the 2004 Presidential
election, Hamed Karzai; or (c) a pure and simple grab for
even more power by players who will never be satisfied with
what they already have.


7. (C) Given Qanooni's current leadership position, it is
less clear what he would have to gain from such a proposal
than the other players. If Haidary's account is credible,
however, it is highly unlikely that any of these players are
basing their proposal on a patriotic desire to improve
governance in Afghanistan. Embassy will make known our firm
opposition to this idea.

NEUMANN