PRT HELMAND: GOVERNOR OPTIMISTIC ON POPPY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KABUL 000453 SIPDIS SENSITIVE NSC FOR AHARRIMAN, KAMEND DEPT FOR SA/FO, AMBASSADOR QUINN, SA/PAB, S/CT, SA/A CENTCOM FOR POLAD REL NATO/AUST/NZ/ISAF E.O. 12958 N/A TAGS: SNAR PREL PGOV PTER PINR AF SUBJECT: PRT HELMAND: GOVERNOR OPTIMISTIC ON POPPY ERADICATION ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Helmand provincial Governor Engineer Daud told PRT officers on January 30 that he is optimistic his poppy eradication plan will succeed. Along with eradication, there must also be significant assistance to poor farmers, especially in the far north of the province. The Governor expects USAID and the UKs Department for International Development (DFID) to implement cash for work and/or food for work programs in these areas. To facilitate eradication, Governor Daud is also planning on removing some district chiefs of police who have close ties to the opium trade. Separately, other provincial officials warned that clashes with farmers and/or anti-Coalition Militia (ACM) elements are possible. Eradication will commence only after the plan is approved by the Ministry of Counternarcotics and assistance for poor farmers is in place. END SUMMARY. -------------- THE TIME HAS COME -------------- ¶2. (SBU) At the weekly security meeting, Governor Daud said that the time had come to move on poppy eradication. He discussed his January 27-28 trip to Kabul and meeting with various ministries and representatives from the U.S. and UK embassies. The Governor said that he told his interlocutors that, with the expected upsurge in poppy cultivation this year (estimated as much as 77,000 hectares, nearly double last years cultivation),eradication has taken on greater importance. However, he also noted the need to take a longer view concerning the importance of alternative livelihoods as a key in permanently eliminating poppy in Helmand. -------------- IM IN CHARGE -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The Governor said that he insisted on being in charge of the eradication effort. He recalled that, in 2003, Kabul officials were supposed to deliver cash to farmers who eradicated. This effort turned into a disaster, when corrupt officials from both Kabul and Helmand pocketed the money meant for farmers. Daud said that this year would be different; he would maintain tight controls over the program. The Governor said that any and all monitors were welcome to observe the process. -------------- SECURITY �A; -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The plan that the Governor presented has a strong security element. To ensure security, the Governor will mobilize 500 provincial ANP. In In addition, the Ministry of Defense pledged to send 500 troops and the Ministry of Interior was sending 500 additional police. -------------- PROCEEDING WITH ERADICATION -------------- ¶5. (SBU) In the past, many citizens complained that poppy eradication, when it occurred, was unfairly and corruptly administered. Indeed, there have been many reports of police essentially extorting money from farmers in exchange for not destroying their poppy fields. The Governor asserted that this year would be different. First, the plan is to start by eradicating poppy fields belonging to provincial officials. The next stage will be to eradicate poppy cultivated on government land. Finally, eradication will commence on ordinary farmers fields. Poppy eradication will be two pronged, Daud added, starting from both the north and the south. Deputy Governor Amir Mohammed (the former governors younger brother) will lead the effort in the north; police chief Abdul Rahman Jan n (ARJ) will focus on the south. ¶6. (SBU) As he has remarked on other occasions, the Governor envisions a step by step process. One or two days prior to eradication, officials will fan out to various districts and explain to citizens why the time has come to stop cultivating poppy. Mullahs will issue appeals from their mosques. District officials will explain that poppy cultivation, under the Afghan Constitution and by Presidential decree, is illegal. -------------- NEED TO HELP THE POOREST -------------- ¶7. (SBU) The Governor stated that in central Helmand, where farmers are able to tap into the Helmand Rivers network of irrigation canals, there is no excuse for farmers to grow poppy because they can make a living growing other crops. (COMMENT: This true, but not the whole story. There are no other crops to compete with poppy over the winter poppy- growing season. Most poppy farmers do grow other crops, such as corn, cotton, and sometimes fruit, in , in the summer season. END COMMENT). However, in the more remote areas in the north and south of Helmand, water resources are limited. Daud said that, unlike other years, there would be no cash payments to farmers. Daoud said that he discussed with USAID and DFID officials in Kabul the urgent need to develop and implement cash for work and/or food for work programs. These could include various public works projects and other activities similar to what USAID, through its Alternative Livelihoods Program, started in Helmand in ¶2005. The Governor emphasized that, without such programs in place, eradication would impoverish the countryside and drive people to the Taliban. Districts such as Baghran, Mousa Qala, Kajeki, Washir, Sangin, and Khanoshin have few resources and the farmers there will need help until they have alternative cash crops. The Governor said that without the assistance in place, it would not be possible to implement a major eradication effort this year. -------------- CHANGING DISTRICT CHIEFS OF POLICE -------------- ¶8. (SBU) During the meeting, the Governor and his security council discussed the need to move some district police chiefs who are believed tied to the local drug business. He proposed moving the police chief in Cartelegan to Khonoshin; moving the Sangin district police chief to Nawa; and promoting a senior officer in Mousa Qala to chief of police in Sangin, a particularly troubled district where there is considerable ACM movement and drug smuggling. Daoud noted that the Taliban had been clever in playing off tribal disputes between the Isakzai and the Alokazai, the two main tribes. The Governor also discussed firing the Garmseer district police chief for continued corruption. -------------- POTENTIAL FOR VIOLENCE -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Separately, Colonel Fawzi Ahmed, head of the counternarcotics unit of the provincial police, told PRT poloff on January 29 that the authorities must be prepared for potential violence, including IEDs, suicide attacks, and firefights. Colonel Fawzi said that, with the help from the ANA and the extra ANP, there should be sufficient manpower; nevertheless, if the eradication effort proceeded according to plan, it would be a much stronger effort than ever before attempted. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Governor Daud appears serious and determined to substantially reduce poppy cultivation this year. However, there are many moving parts to the plan as well as several potentially weak links. The logistics of supporting 1,500 security personnel are challenging. Developing and implementing cash for work and/or food for work programs in remote areas relatively quickly will require a strong security component and much effort, considering the near absence of infrastructure in outlying districts. For USAID and/or DFID to mobilize over the next two to three months to implement such programs will be a major challenge. It is possible that, by trying to link eradication efforts to USAID and/or DFID programs aimed at compensating poor farmers, the Governor may be looking for political cover, if the eradication effort does not go as planned. ¶11. (SBU) COMMENT (cont.) Regarding eradication leadership, while Governor Daud may have political reasons for placing Amir Mohammed and ARJ in charge of the north and south efforts, respectively, they are both suspected of having major involvement in the drug trade. This could complicate eradication efforts. Concerning governance, while it may be helpful in the short term to shuffle some district police chiefs due to their allegedly strong ties to the drug scene in their localities, the heart of the problem is lack of capacity of the ANP. NORLAND