SECURITY OPERATIONS GROUP SEPT 21: SOUTHERN

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 KABUL 004321 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR SCA/FO DAS GASTRIGHT, SCA/A, S/CRS, S/CT, EUR/RPM STATE PASS TO USAID FOR AID/ANE, AID/DCHA/DG NSC FOR AHARRIMAN OSD FOR BREZINSKI CENTCOM FOR CFC-A, CG CJTF-76, POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/20/2016 TAGS: PTER MARR PGOV PK AF SUBJECT: SECURITY OPERATIONS GROUP SEPT 21: SOUTHERN OPERATIONS AND INTEL BRIEF, AUXILIARY POLICE TEAM UPDATE REF: KABUL 4161 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. Richard Norland for reasons 1.4 b , d. ¶1. (S) Summary: Although the usual Policy Action Group (PAG) was canceled this week due to high-level travel, Minister Wardak convened the Security Operations Group (SOG) today, Sept 21, at the Ministerial level in order to keep up the momentum on security-related projects, particularly the auxiliary police. After an extended intel brief, including presentation of a case of NDS sharing real-time intelligence with Pakistan,s ISI, there was some discussion of the various assessment teams now traveling in the south. Of these it was agreed that the auxiliary police assessment team is the most urgent and appears to be on track. Team representatives in Zabol will begin training the first tranche of auxiliary police recruits, between 40-60 individuals, on September 23. End summary. ¶2. (S) The meeting began with security briefings by MoD, MoI, and NDS, in which the points made at the Sept 14 PAG were reinforced - military gains in the south are jeopardized by a lack of ANSF presence in the districts. Provincial assessments were as follows: - Farah: MoD reported that ANA and ANP recently conducted a successful joint operation in Delaram valley to recover the town from the Taliban. Minister of Interior Zarar Moqbil reported that the situation in Delaram and the districts of Gulistan, Bela Buruk, and Farah Rud has improved over the past week. NDS Chief Amarullah Saleh politely differed, saying that his sources report that the Taliban are very well entrenched in many parts of Farah off the main road. He argued that a stabilization operation is required for Farah, including deployment of more police. In Delaram, for example, victory could be quickly reversed if a permanent presence is not maintained there. Minister Zarar added that Bakwa remains a problem, since it is a traditional infiltration route. - Kandahar: Saleh reported that NDS is picking up indications from both human and signals intelligence of a gathering of Taliban forces in Maruf district. They are able to move relatively freely in that area due to a lack of ANSF and ISAF/Coalition Forces. Saleh said they expect a surprise attack on Maruf district center. He noted that many of the fighters that had slipped away from Panjwayi are resurfacing in Maruf. (Note: The $60 million USAID request for additional roads in Kandahar province is intended to open up Maruf, a border district that is a no-go area for pro-government forces and a traditional infiltration route from northern Baluchistan. End note.) - Zabol/Ghazni: Afghan sigint indicates that the Quetta shura is sending several commanders to Zabol to distract Coalition forces from the present operation in Andar district, Ghazni. Intercepts also make clear that the Quetta shura was aware in advance of operations in Ghazni (i.e. that operations security had been compromised). KABUL 00004321 002 OF 003 - Helmand: Saleh declined to give a detailed report on Helmand, noting only that the GOA achieved a tactical success this week when Mullah Abdul Rahim, the Quetta shura,s choice for governor of Helmand, was killed or seriously injured together with five of his men. - Uruzgan: NDS has reports that 200 Taliban under the leadership of Mullah Abdul Aziz, have entered Uruzgan and are planning to attack the district center of Khas Uruzgan. (Note: Khas Uruzgan borders the difficult districts of Deh Chopan in Zabol and Arjistan and Malistan in Ghazni. CJSOTF Forward Operating Base (FOB) Anaconda is located in Khas Uruzgan district.) - Kabul: Based on communications intercepted from the Miram Shah shura, NDS believes that an increased number of attacks against Kabul province and city are being planned. Saleh pointed out that there are 130 entry points into Kabul city, of which 15 are suitable for vehicles. Only those 15 have checkpoints; the other 115 are unguarded. Saleh proposed to convene an operational group to discuss a plan for perimeter security for the city of Kabul. The group would also discuss formation of a Joint Operations Center specifically for Kabul in order to react against rapid infiltrations. U.S. Embassy officers as well as MOI, MOD, NDS, ISAF, and representatives of other Embassies, will attend the planning meeting for the group. In arguing for the urgency of a defense plan for Kabul, Saleh noted that all it would take is a coordinated bombing campaign targeting civilians for the confidence of the people to evaporate. Real-Time Intelligence Sharing with Pakistan -------------- ¶3. (S) Saleh said that just a few days ago a large terrorist cell had been disrupted in Kabul through separate operations by MoI and NDS. Six people have been arrested and more arrests are expected. According to Saleh, the terrorists had telephone communications with their leader, who is in Peshawar. He said he immediately passed the phone number, which was still working, to Pakistani ISI. Saleh said he truly hoped that ISI would make use of the intelligence to trace and arrest the caller. He hoped that he would not find in a day or two that the line had gone dead and no one had been arrested. He also said he would raise this matter witih an ISI delegation that he would be meeting with in Kabul later today (Sept 21). Auxiliary Police, Audit, and ADZ Team Trips -------------- ¶4. (C) Minister Wardak and other members of the SOG updated the group on the status of the three teams now in the provinces on assessment trips. The ADZ team, under the leadership of the Ministry of Education, has gone to Kandahar and Tarin Kowt. It will shortly proceed to Qalat and Lashkar Gah, and will return to Kabul to report its findings. The audit team, under the leadership of the MoD and in coordination with MoI, will shortly head south to KABUL 00004321 003 OF 003 begin a headcount of ANA and ANP and a weapons and equipment audit of ANP (ANA recently fielded a separate equipment audit team.) ¶5. (C) MoI reported to the group that the auxiliary police assessment team in Zabol has identified 60 initial recruits and will begin training on Saturday, September 23. Deputy Minister of Interior Khalid will travel to Zabol with CSTC-A Brigadier General O,Brien to oversee the beginning of the formal program and make sure it is on track. (Note: INL experts in Zabol have told us that there are completed applications for 40 recruits. On Saturday they will sign their contracts and begin in- processing. These individuals were actually among those recruited by Deputy Minister Khalid on his trip to Zabol two weeks ago and have been assigned to highway checkpoints, positions they will continue to man while in training. End note.) NORLAND