PRT/PANJSHIR: Road Paves Way For Change

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KABUL 003078 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR SCA/FO, SCA/A, S/CR, SCA/PAB, S/CT, EUR/RPM STATE PASS TO USAID FOR AID/ANE, AID/DCHA/DG NSC FOR AHARRIMAN OSD FOR BREZINSKI CENTCOM FOR CG CFC-A, CG CJTF-76, POLAD TRANSPORTATION FOR DMODESITT REL NATO/AUST/NZ/ISAF E.O. 12958 N/A TAGS: ELTN PGOV ECON EAID AF SUBJECT: PRT/PANJSHIR: Road Paves Way For Change KABUL 00003078 001.2 OF 003 Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) The new road in Panjshir, funded by USAID at 16 million USD, is making daily progress along its 47- km stretch. The road is transforming the province - economically, politically and socially. The change is overwhelmingly positive; Panjshiri support of the project is wide-spread. There is, however, popular opinion resistance to the Double Bituminous Surface Treatment (DBST) road surface, which the PRT is working to address. There is, however, a perceived downside to the change, which the PRT is working to address. End Summary. Economic Impact -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Positive: Panjshiris view the road as their "lifeline" for commerce and transportation. As one contact put it, "the road is the main artery of the province, supplying it with blood." Panjshiris expect the paved road to ease their transport of products to market, especially produce to Kabul. Further, it will facilitate the movement of labor. In the case of Panjshir, that means the exodus of young men to Kabul for work - a trend already in full swing - but also their return on the weekends. Shopkeepers lining the road tell us they expect more business, one reason they have agreed without compensation to move their storefronts back several meters. ¶3. (SBU) Positive: We have already seen signs of economic development sparked by the road work. A property dispute in one of the larger settlements on the road, after years of stalemate, suddenly found resolution as townspeople sought to capitalize on the new possibilities. New residential construction is evident. There are also several instances of private investment - for example, a new restaurant near the mouth of the valley. We hear talk as well of big investments in the fields of gemstone extraction and water bottling. ¶4. (SBU) Positive: Panjshir has already witnessed an increased flow of tourists, mostly Kabulites coming for the weekend, drawn by the fresh air and valley scenery only two hours away from the capital. Indeed, the road is choked on Thursday afternoons. We even see a sprinkling of international visitors. Massoud's tomb, now under construction, is the biggest single magnet, even attracting visitors by the bus-load. Tourism is one of the Governor's top priorities for provincial development. Panjshiris tell us they will welcome the tourist trade and are beginning to plan for it with hotels and restaurants. ¶5. (SBU) Negative: The road work, even before the DBST starts, has one immediate negative effect: It severs agricultural fields from traditional water sources. Engineers sought to address the problem by installing over 200 culverts. Many farmers, though, have taken matters into their own hands by digging dozens of troughs across the road to channel water. KABUL 00003078 002.2 OF 003 The result is a sort of inverted speed bump, which damages the road base. Farmers are likely to continue to do so even after the Double Bituminous Surface Treatment (DBST). With PRT assistance, project managers have raised the issue with the Governor and explored options for working the issue with community leaders. (COMMENT: Much work went into the design and construction of a by-pass irrigation canal to put the same water on the down side slope of the road from which the farmers could draw their water in the same method. However, the farmers seem to have ignored the effort and still are damaging the road. They need to be aware that there is only so much money for the road without these unwarranted complications. We should not reinforce bad behavior on their part. END COMMENT.) Political Impact -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Positive: The road epitomizes the American commitment to Panjshiri development. Years from now, according to one contact, it will still stand as the "American road." After the defeat of the Taliban, Panjshiris put forth two main demands: establishment of a separate Panjshir province and rehabilitation of the main Panjshir road. The one happened in 2004; the other will come to fruition this year. ¶7. (SBU) Positive: Once paved, the road will promote better governance by enabling provincial officials to travel around the province and conduct their business. It will also facilitate travel by central government officials to the valley, a rare occurrence at the moment. A road will also improve disaster response, especially in those remote areas in the north more at risk of being cut off by snow. ¶8. (SBU) Negative: Panjshiris tell us they have never seen DBST before and had expected "asphalt." Some see DBST as an inferior surface and thus a disparaging political statement about the province. (COMMENT: This is a common complaint in certain regions; however, USAID contractors have undertaken an assessment of the needs of the valley and determined that the additional cost would not provide any additional benefit. The DBST road should be adequate provided that overloaded trucks are prevented from damaging the road. END COMMENT.) We view the challenge as educating Panjshiri opinion leaders on the qualities of DBST and its suitability for the province. To this end, PRT'ers will continue to meet with the Governor and community leaders. Social Impact -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Positive: The rehabilitated road will break down the social isolation of the Panjshiris and may erode their instinctive distrust of outsiders. For the first time, it will establish a reliable road connection between the province and the wider world, especially Kabul. The road will promote commercial interaction and tourist travel, two potent agents of KABUL 00003078 003.2 OF 003 social change. ¶10. (SBU) Positive: Vehicular traffic on the current road generates clouds of dust, a continuous nuisance for all shops and a health hazard for the butcher markets. DBST, through its dust abatement, will have a salutary effect. ¶11. (SBU) Negative: Given current Panjshiri road behavior, we expect a spike in accidents, including child fatalities. The possibility of greater vehicular speed will no doubt lead to more accidents. Currently, children use the road as a playground; animals, as a track. Further, veterans of road work in Afghanistan are certain that the road will bring in more alcohol and drunk driving. We are planning a traffic-safety initiative to educate drivers and pedestrians. PRT'ers have already helped hand out brochures to drivers on safety issues. Comment -------------- ¶12. (SBU) In Panjshir, the road is the biggest single agent of change. The result is a transformation of the valley - not so much globalization as, "Kabulization." For the first time, the province will be connected to the capital. We see many signs of the presence of Kabul in the valley - economically, politically and socially. Meanwhile, the PRT is working to address the negative change introduced by the road. Thus, we are coordinating with interested parties to find a solution to the irrigation controversy; defuse the confusion over DBST; and improve traffic safety. NEUMANN