EREKAT TELLS CODEL KERRY TO EXPECT ELECTIONS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L JERUSALEM 005021 SIPDIS SIPDIS NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE; NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/WATERS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/04/2016 TAGS: KPAL KWBG PGOV PREL PTER IS SUBJECT: EREKAT TELLS CODEL KERRY TO EXPECT ELECTIONS, REQUESTS HELP Classified By: Acting Principal Officer, Thomas M. Duffy, Reasons 1.4 ( b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Begin Summary. Noting that PA President Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) is serious about calling early elections, PLO Chief Negotiator Sa'eb Erekat told Senators Kerry and Dodd in a December 21 meeting that Fatah needs internal party reform, assistance to security forces, and the prospect of a peace process in order to win the elections. Erekat said that he is preparing a meeting between Abu Mazen and PM Olmert, which he expects sooner rather than later. He said productive Israeli-Palestinian engagement, possibly to include a back channel, would be crucial for Abu Mazen to beat Hamas in early elections. End Summary. Winning Elections -------------- ¶2. (C) In a December 21 meeting with Senators Kerry and Dodd, PLO Chief Negotiator Sa'eb Erekat said the call for early elections is not a bluff, and he expects a presidential decree setting the date for elections in a month or so and elections by June. He said for Fatah to win the elections, it must reform itself, adding that "with the current line up of the Fatah Central Committee, we don't stand a chance." ¶3. (C) Erekat said that for Fatah to win, the Presidential Guard (PG) must also be sufficiently equipped and salaried. He noted that the forces loyal to Hamas receive significant assistance from their supporters, including Qatar, while the supporters of Fatah and Abu Mazen just "talk." He said if Hamas senses weakness on our side "we're dead." He said he thought the PG had acquitted itself well during the recent clashes in Gaza, but if clashes had continued, they would have run out of ammunition He praised the USSC, but urged the Senators (as well as moderate Arab states) to provide the necessary, additional funding. He said it would also help Abu Mazen's electoral prospects if the U.S. and Europeans end the current financial restrictions once Abu Mazen sets the date for early elections. He said normalizing relations and resuming previous levels and forms of international assistance would be crucial for Fatah's candidacy. He said assistance outside the security sector should be provided openly and that he did not believe international assistance to non-Hamas politicians to build schools, clinics, etc. for their communities would backfire at the polls. ¶4. (C) Erekat said Abu Mazen must be able to show voters that there is a political horizon. He said Abu Mazen can triumph against Hamas in early elections, if he can demonstrate a viable Israeli-Palestinian peace process and concrete Israeli commitments to this process. Abu Mazen-Olmert Meeting -------------- ¶5. (C) Erekat said he is working with PM Olmert's advisors Turbowitz and Tourgeman to prepare an Olmert-Abbas meeting, and he believes such a meeting will take place "sooner than expected." He said such a meeting would be crucial for resuming the peace process and would allow Abu Mazen to assess Olmert's thinking, including possible reactions to recent proposals from King Abdullah of Jordan. Erekat added that if Abu Mazen asks for a back channel, the GoI should agree. ¶6. (U) Codel Kerry did not have an opportunity to clear this cable. DUFFY