FAYAD CALLS FOR LEADERSHIP, SUGGESTS BARGHOUTI IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L JERUSALEM 005000

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE, NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/LOGERFO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/18/2011
TAGS: PREL PGOV KWBG KPAL KDEM IS
SUBJECT: FAYAD CALLS FOR LEADERSHIP, SUGGESTS BARGHOUTI IN
FRONT OF MCCAIN/LIEBERMAN


CLASSIFIED BY: ACTING PRINCIPAL OFFICER THOMAS M. DUFFY, PER REASONS 1.
4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) BEGIN SUMMARY. SENATORS MCCAIN (AZ),LIEBERMAN (CT),
COLLINS (ME),THUNE (SD),AND REPRESENTATIVE KIRK (IL) MET
DECEMBER 18 WITH PLC MEMBER AND FORMER MINISTER OF FINANCE
SALAM FAYYAD AND SAID AFTERWARDS THAT THEY WERE UPLIFTED BY
HIS OPTIMISM IN THE FACE OF A WORSENING PALESTINIAN CRISIS.
FAYYAD DESCRIBED THE INTENSITY OF INTRA-PALESTINIAN VIOLENCE
AS GREATER THAN EVER BEFORE. HE CHARACTERIZED THE
ENVIRONMENT FOLLOWING PA PRESIDENT MAHMOUD ABBAS (ABU MAZEN)
CALL FOR EARLY ELECTIONS AS ONE WHICH HAS EQUAL LIKELIHOOD OF
RISING VIOLENCE AS OF A POLITICAL SETTLEMENT. CALLING ABU
MAZEN "PASSIVE" OVER THE LAST TWO YEARS, FAYYAD SAID
PALESTINIANS DESPERATELY NEED LEADERSHIP (MORE THAN MONEY) IN
ORDER TO GET SECURITY AND INDICATED THAT IMPRISONED FATAH
LEADER MARWAN BARGHOUTI MIGHT HAVE THE SUPPORT TO PROVIDE
SUCH LEADERSHIP IF RELEASED FROM PRISON. END SUMMARY

ESCALATION OR AGREEMENT?
--------------


2. (C) PLC MEMBER AND FORMER FINANCE MINISTER SALAM FAYYAD
TOLD CODEL MCCAIN IN A DECEMBER 18 MEETING THAT HE BELIEVES
AFTER PA PRESIDENT MAHMOUD ABBAS (ABU MAZEN) REFERRED TO
EARLY ELECTIONS IN HIS DECEMBER 16 SPEECH, THE PROBABILITY
THAT VIOLENCE WILL ESCALATE AND THE PROBABILITY OF A
POLITICAL AGREEMENT EACH ROSE SIMULTANEOUSLY. FAYYAD POINTED
TO SYRIA (MORE THAN IRAN OR ANY ARAB STATE) AS THE
DETERMINING EXTERNAL FACTOR IN THE WAY THAT THE BALANCE
TILTS. ASKED ABOUT THE REGIONAL CONTEXT, FAYAD SAID A NEW
SECURITY DOCTRINE IS NEEDED, AND SUCH A DOCTRINE SHOULD LOOK
AT HOW CONVENTIONAL MILITARY POWER IS NOW &BLUNTED,8 CITING
HIZBOLLAH,S WIDELY PERCEIVED VICTORY ) BOTH MILITARY AND
POLITICAL - OVER THE SUMMER AS A PRIME EXAMPLE. HE
REPEATEDLY URGED THE NEED FOR PATIENCE THROUGHOUT THE
PROCESS, ON ALL SIDES. FAYAD SAID ISRAELIS AND PALESTINIANS
MUST &CHANGE THE WAY WE LOOK AT EACH OTHER8, PAINTING HAMAS
AS A COMMON NEMESIS. ASKED ABOUT IRAN, FAYAD DESCRIBED THE
SAUDIS, EMIRATIS, JORDANIANS, AND EGYPTIANS AS AN EFFECTIVE
COUNTERBALANCE. HE ADDED THAT THE SO-CALLED "ARAB QUARTET"
IS INCREASINGLY ENGAGED AND WILLING DO MORE THAN THROW MONEY
AT THE PROBLEM. COUNSELING PATIENCE AND WISE JUDGMENT, FAYAD
SAID THE STAKES ARE HIGH, BUT HE IS FULL OF HOPE.

ABU MAZEN: IN OR OUT?
--------------


3. C) ASKED IF ABU MAZEN WILL RUN IF THERE ARE EARLY
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS, FAYAD NOTED A RECENT POLL IN WHICH
ABU MAZEN IS POLLING EVEN WITH PM HANNIYEH FAYYAD
ACKNOWLEDGED THAT ABU MAZEN HAS SAID HE DOES NOT INTEND TO
RUN, BUT INSISTED THAT IT IS STILL EARLY. FAYYAD SAID HE HAS
BEEN DISAPPOINTED BY ABU MAZEN AND DESCRIBED THE PA
PRESIDENT'S TWO YEARS AS CHARACTERIZED BY PASSIVITY AND
ACCOMMODATION. BUT HE SAID ABU MAZEN WAS DIFFERENT DURING
HIS DECEMBER 16 SPEECH AND THE DIFFERENCE WAS OVERDUE. MORE
THAN ANYTHING, FAYYAD SAID, PALESTINIAN NEED LEADERSHIP TO
FULFILL THEIR BASIC NEEDS, SECURITY FOREMOST AMONG THEM.
FAYAD DOWNPLAYED THE CONSTANT SPECULATION ABOUT AN
ABBAS-OLMERT MEETING, CALLING IT &A PATHOLOGICAL
RELATIONSHIP8 WHERE TOO MUCH TIME IS INVESTED IN SIMPLY
TRYING TO SET UP A MEETING. INSTEAD, HE SAID, TIME SHOULD BE
SPENT ON CONCRETE, PRAGMATIC ACHIEVEMENTS.


4. (C) FAYYAD TOLD CODEL MCCAIN THAT THERE ARE SMALL BUT
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS IN THE EVERY DAY LIVES OF
PALESTINIANS THAT THE GOI COULD MAKE AND THAT WOULD HELP ABU
MAZEN. HE SUGGESTED THAT NOT ALL OF THE 639 CHECKPOINTS IN
THE WEST BANK AND THE TEN THOUSAND DETAINEES IN ISRAELI
CONTROL ARE NECESSARY TO ENSURE ISRAELI SECURITY. IF A
PALESTINIAN COULD TRAVEL EASILY FROM NABLUS TO RAMALLAH,
MINDSETS WOULD CHANGE, HE SAID.


5. (C) ASKED ABOUT FINANCIAL NEEDS, FAYYAD SAID ABU MAZEN
COULD CERTAINLY USE FUNDS TO BOOST SECURITY, BUT THAT IT IS
THE JOB OF THE HAMAS-LED GOVERNMENT TO DELIVER SERVICES, AND
NO AMOUNT OF MONEY DELIVERED TO THE PRESIDENCY WOULD HELP
ACCOMPLISH THAT GOAL. HE ESTIMATES THAT THE AMOUNT OF MONEY
AVAILABLE TO THE HAMAS-LED PALESTINIAN GOVERNMENT IS
APPROXIMATELY EQUAL TO THE AMOUNT THAT WAS AVAILABLE TO
PREVIOUS, FATAH-LED GOVERNMENTS, DESPITE INTERNATIONAL
FINANCIAL RESTRICTIONS. MOST SIGNIFICANT FOR FAYYAD IS THE
RECENT &SUBSTANTIAL DISINTEGRATION OF THE HUMAN CONDITION8
AND INSTITUTIONAL DECAY.

MARWAN BARGHOUTI
--------------



6. (C) FAYYAD HE WOULD BE MEETING SOON WITH JAILED FATAH
LEADER MARWAN BARGHOUTI. HE SAID HE IS INTRIGUED BY
BARGHOUTI, WHO HE IDENTIFIED AS BELONGING TO THE "PEACE CAMP"
UNTIL THE SECOND INTIFADA AND WHOSE POLLING NUMBERS SUGGEST
HE COULD PROVIDE A LEADERSHIP TO CHALLENGE HAMAS.


7. (C) COMMENT. ON THE WAY OUT THE DOOR, EACH MEMBER OF THE
DELEGATION INDIVIDUALLY THANKED FAYYAD FOR WHAT THEY SAID WAS
THE MOST POSITIVE MEETING OF THEIR ENTIRE TRIP AND FOR HIS
HOPEFUL EMPHASIS IN DISCUSSING THE SITUATION. END COMMENT.


8. (U) CODEL MCCAIN DID NOT HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO CLEAR
THIS CABLE.
DUFFY