SHIKAKI ON HAMAS AND PUBLIC OPINION

C O N F I D E N T I A L JERUSALEM 004979 NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE; PASS TO NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/WATERS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/15/2016 TAGS: KPAL KWBG PGOV PREL PTER IS SUBJECT: SHIKAKI ON HAMAS AND PUBLIC OPINION Classified By: Acting Principal Officer Thomas M. Duffy, for reasons 1. 4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Begin Summary. In a December 14 meeting with USSC Dayton, Khalil Shikaki, Director of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, assessed that Abu Mazen can reach an agreement on a new government with what he described as the "moderate" element of Hamas. Shikaki said that he believes the Palestinian public vehemently opposes efforts seen to undermine the elected Hamas government. End Summary HAMAS' INTERESTS -------------- ¶2. (C) Shikaki said he believes that Hamas, chief and current interest is in achieving some of the goals identified in the party,s election platform, i.e., provision of social services. He said he believes that Hamas wants to take steps to ensure law and order and to fight corruption, as promised during the election, and that Hamas will compromise on broader, long-term political goals to this end. Shikaki expressed skepticism that Hamas wants to accept a strategic alignment with Syria and Iran, which he believes those two nations want. Instead, he thinks Hamas would prefer a modus vivendi with the West. ¶3. (C) Shikaki described recent participation by some Hamas members in Track II diplomacy programs that also included Israelis and himself He said that those Hamas members, whom he characterized as a moderate element within Hamas, believe that the future of the Palestinian people and of a Hamas-led PA lies in strong relations with Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia and non-antagonistic relations with Syria and Iran. He said that this moderate element has presented its views to Israelis in a Track II context and believes a two-state solution is likely, but is not prepared to support a two-state solution publicly. He said that this element of Hamas wants to engage with the West and believes the West should give them a chance. Shikaki said that he believes PA President Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) can reach an agreement with this element of Hamas on a new government. (Note: Shikaki did not offer details about this element of Hamas, but he was likely referring to a Track II meeting that he hosted in London in October. Ahmed Youssef, PM Hanniyeh,s political advisor, had agreed to attend that meeting, but once news of the meeting was leaked to Ha,aretz, he decided not to attend and instead submitted a paper with his views to the meeting participants. End Note.) PALESTINIAN PUBLIC OPINION -------------- --- ¶4. (C) Shikaki said Fatah is being blamed for the current political, economic and security difficulties, because the Palestinian public recognizes that Fatah wants Hamas to fail to govern effectively. He said the Palestinian public does not share Fatah,s view and does not perceive Hamas as unwilling to make peace. Shikaki believes that the release of Fatah Tanzim leader Marwan Barghouti would enhance Fatah,s public image, especially if Barghouti publicly embraces Abu Mazen after being released. ¶5. (C) Shikaki believes that the Palestinian public wants to see international assistance for Abu Mazen, but would hesitate in supporting international assistance to the PA security forces (PASF),because of concerns that this assistance is intended to undermine the elected PA government. He said he believes efforts to rebuild the PASF that are perceived as preparing for a confrontation with Hamas could boomerang on Abu Mazen. Shikaki noted that his staff is polling public views of the Hamas "Executive Force." DUFFY