PALESTINIAN CEC DISCUSSES CURRENT SITUATION

UNCLAS JERUSALEM 004760 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE; NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/WATERS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM KPAL KWBG SUBJECT: PALESTINIAN CEC DISCUSSES CURRENT SITUATION ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: CONGEN REPS MET WITH HANA NASSER, THE CHAIRMAN OF THE PALESTINIAN CENTRAL ELECTION COMMISSION (CEC),AND ALSO Q-CHAIRED A MEETING OF THE CEC-ELECTION REFORM SUPPORT GROUP (ERSG) ON NOVEMBER 7 IN RAMALLAH. PRIVATELY, NASSER CRITICIZED FATAH'S LACK OF DISCIPLINE DURING THE PLC ELECTIONS AND EXPRESSED PESSIMISM ABQT THE LIKELIHOOD OF POSITIVE CHANGE IN THE NEAR FUTURE. AT THE ERSG MEETING, HE BRIEFED INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY REPRESENTATIVES ON PREPARATIONS FOR A FIFTH ROUND OF LOCAL ELECTIONS AND VOTER REGISTRATION EFFORTS. THE NEWLY-INSTALLED CHIEF ELECTORAL OFFICER, HISHAM KUHAIL, UPDATED THE GROUP ON CEC ACTIVITIES FOR THE PAST SIX MONTHS, INCLUDING CEC RESTRUCTURING. NASSER STRESSED THAT THE CEC NEEDS ADDITIONAL FINANCIAL SUPPORT TO CONTINUE PAST APRIL 2007 AND DESCRIBED HIS EFFORTS AS CEC CHAIR NOT TO CONSTRAIN ABU MAZEN'S POLITICAL CHOICES. END SUMMARY. -------------- CEC CHAIR NASSER -------------- ¶2. (SBU) CONGEN REPS MET PRIVATELY WITH NASSER AND KUHAIL BEFORE THE CEC-ERSG MEETING. NASSER STRESSED THAT HAMAS' VICTORY IN THE 2006 PLC ELECTIONS HAD STEMMED FROM FATAH'S WEAKNESS AND HAMAS' SKILLED ELECTORAL CAMPAIGNING. HE NOTED FATAH'S MISTAKE IN FLOODING EACH DISTRICT WITH FAR MORE CANDIDATES THAN AVAILABLE SEATS. HE ALSO POINTED TO PA PRESIDENT MAHMOUD ABBAS' (ABU MAZEN) INABILITY TO OBTAIN ANY GOI CONCESSIONS IN EXCHANGE FOR HIS PARTICIPATION IN THE PEACE PROCESS. NASSER DESCRIBED FATAHS ELECTORAL MISTAKES AS "STUPID," AND SAID FATAH HAS NOT LEARNED ANY LESSONS FROM THE PLC ELECTIONS AND ISRAEL CONTINUES TO UNDERMINE ABU MAZEN. ¶3. (SBU) NASSER SPECULATED THAT EARLY ELECTIONS ARE UNLIKELY AND WARNED THAT A CALL FOR THEM COULD PROMPT VIOLENCE. NASSER OBSERVED THAT THE PALESTINIAN PEOPLE ARE "QUIESCENT," AND THAT "GOVERNMENTS USUALLY TOPPLE BECAUSE PEOPLE TOPPLE THEM." HOWEVER, NASSER ALSO ACKNOWLEDGED THE FLUIDITY OF THE SITUATION AND REFERRED TO HIS OWN UNSUCCESSFUL EFFORTS TO LEARN FROM PEOPLE CLOSE TO ABU MAZEN WHERE TALKS ON GOVERNMENT FORMATION STAND. -------------- ERSG MEETING -------------- ¶4. (SBU) CONGEN POLCHIEF AND EU POLOFF CO-CHAIRED THE CEC-ERSG. (NOTE: THIS GROUP OF DONORS AND INTERESTED INTERNATIONAL ACTORS HAD NOT BEEN CONVENED FOR SOME SIX MONTHS. END NOTE.) NASSER URGED NEW DONOR FUNDS. HE NOTED THAT THE PA IS RESPONSIBLE FOR FUNDING THE CEC, BUT UNTIL THE CURRENT PA-FINANCIAL CRISIS IS RESOLVED, THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY'S ASSISTANCE IS NEEDED. HE NOTED THAT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY HAS ALREADY MADE A SIGNIFICANT INVESTMENT IN THE CEC AND SAID HE WOULD NOT WANT TO SEE THE INSTITUTION DETERIORATE. CHIEF ELECTORAL OFFICER KUHAIL SAID THAT HE IS LOOKING CLOSELY AT RESTRUCTURING THE CEC, INCLUDING CREATING AN INTERNAL AUDIT FUNCTION. ¶5. (SBU) NASSER SAID THE CEC IS PREPARED TO CONDUCT A FIFTH ROUND OF LOCAL ELECTIONS IN SIXTY-FIVE MUNICIPALITIES ONCE IT IS INSTRUCTED TO DO SO BY THE PRIME MINISTER'S OFFICE. HE SAID THAT ONCE ELECTIONS ARE ANNOUNCED, THE CEC WOULD NEED NINETY DAYS TO PREPARE. NASSER ANTICIPATED SOME TECHNICAL PROBLEMS WITH THE FIFTH ROUND OF LOCAL ELECTIONS, SINCE IT WOULD INCLUDE SOME DISTRICTS WHERE ELECTIONS WERE PREVIOUSLY HELD AND THE RESULTS HAD BEEN THROWN OUT BECAUSE OF FRAUD. (COMMENT: NASSER MADE CLEAR THAT A FIFTH ROUND OF ELECTIONS IS TECHNICALLY DO-ABLE. HE DID NOT ADDRESS THE LIKELIHOOD OR POLITICAL FEASIBILITY. CONGEN BELIEVES THAT AT THIS POINT A FIFTH ROUND IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEAR FUTURE, GIVEN ANTICIPATED POLITICAL AND SECURITY INSTABILITY. END COMMENT.) ¶6. (SBU) NASSER SAID THE CEC CURRENTLY HAS A VOTER REGISTRATION DATABASE THAT IS ONE OF THE MOST RELIABLE PALESTINIAN DATA SETS. HE NOTED THAT DURING THE 2006 PLC ELECTIONS, THERE WERE MINIMAL CHALLENGES TO THE VOTER LIST OF CLOSE TO ONE MILLION PEOPLE. HE SAID THE LIST WOULD BECOME OBSOLETE, HOWEVER, IF THE CEC DID NOT UPDATE IT. ¶7. (SBU) NASSER EMPHASIZED HIS EFFORTS NOT TO CONSTRAIN ABU MAZEN'S CHOICES. FOR EXAMPLE, DESPITE CEC DOWN-SIZING FOLLOWING THE 2006 PLC ELECTIONS, HE HAS MAINTAINED ADDITIONAL STAFF IN CASE THERE IS ANOTHER ELECTION. WITH REGARD TO A POSSIBLE REFERENDUM, HE NOTED THAT ABU MAZEN HAS THE LEGAL TOOLS TO CALL ONE, BUT THERE IS NO LAW LAYING OUT HOW ITS RESULTS WOULD BE INTERPRETED OR USED. WALLES