C O N F I D E N T I A L JERUSALEM 000345

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE, NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MUSTAFA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/25/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PBTS KDEM KPAL KWBG IS
SUBJECT: PALESTINIAN LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS: ELECTION DAY
SITREP # 3 AS OF 2:30 PM, JANUARY 25, 2006

REF: A. JERUSALEM 340


B. JERUSALEM 338

C. JERUSALEM 00324

Classified By: Consul General Jake Walles, per reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) As of 2:30 pm local time, PLC elections continued to
go smoothly with 45 percent voter turnout in both the West
Bank and Gaza Strip after seven and a half hours of voting.
CEC Chairman Hanna Nasser estimated that voter turnout would
be 75-80 percent by the end of the day and predicted that
polls would be kept open another two hours. He said that
ballot counting should be completed 12 hours after polls
closed. Palestinian pollster Khalil Shikaki expected Fatah
to win the elections by 47 percent. While most polling
stations were calm in both the West Bank and Gaza Strip, the
atmosphere was more tense where parties were allowed to
campaign outside the polling stations. Several unconfirmed
security incidents were reported in the Gaza Strip, including
two shootings and a hand grenade detonated in a polling
station. All the major pan-Arab stations and Palestinian
stations continued running non-stop coverage of the
elections, broadcasting from various polling stations in the
West Bank and Gaza Strip. Coverage of East Jerusalem has
been limited to the Salah Ed-Din Post Office polling station.
End summary.

ELECTIONS CONTINUE TO GO SMOOTHLY
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2. (C) By mid-day, voter turnout in Ramallah approached 50
percent of eligible voters. National Democratic Institute
(NDI) observers expected voter participation in Ramallah to
be between 85-90 percent by the end of the day. Hamidei
Bilal of the United Nations Office of Coordination for
Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) in Gaza told PolOff that voter
turnout in the Gaza Strip had been high and relatively
peaceful. Deputy Finance Minister Jihad al-Wazir related to
EconChief that everyt

hing was quiet and orderly in his
neighborhood of Gaza City where he had voted.


3. (C) PolChief visited two polling sites in Bethlehem where
thirty percent of the vote was in. He described the
atmosphere there as peaceful and festive but noted the large
number of security service members at the polling sites. He
said political party agents were standing outside the sites
handing out party literature. The Central Elections
Commission (CEC) manager for the Bethlehem District reported
that everything was going fine and that he did not anticipate
any problems.

CEC CHAIRMAN: ELECTIONS
PROCEEDING AS PLANNED
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4. (C) Senator Joseph Biden (D-DE) and the Consul General
met with CEC Chairman Hanna Nasser who said elections were
proceeding according to the framework of the agreement and
stressed that these elections would mean a major change in
the political landscape and that "people will have to accept
it." Nasser remarked that there had been a tremendous
in-flow of voters throughout the day and that he estimated
voter turnout would be 75-80 percent by the end of the day.
He added that 92 percent of Palestinian Authority Security
Force (PASF) personnel had already voted. Nasser said that
he did not expect exit polls to close until 9:00 pm (an
extension of two hours) and that ballots would be counted
within 12 hours, by Thursday morning. He stated that ballot
counters will want to take their time in order to avoid
errors since, in many cases, the winner will be determined by
20-30 votes.


5. (SBU) At 2:30 pm, the CEC reported 517,000 had voted in
the West Bank and Gaza Strip, about 45 percent of the
eligible electorate. 47 percent of eligible voters in the
Gaza Strip had voted, and 41 percent in the West Bank.

CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC EARLY SHIKAKI
POLL ON ELECTION OUTCOME FOR FATAH
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6. (C) Pollster Khalil Shikaki told Senator Biden and the
Consul General, in a separate meeting, that he expected Fatah
to win more votes than Hamas and estimated that Fatah would
carry 47 percent of the vote, though he hoped that Fatah

would get at least 51 percent of the vote. According to
Shikaki, the worst case scenario would be for Fatah to
receive 45 percent of the vote (with a 3 percent margin of
error). Shikaki commented that he did not think the outcome
of the elections would have an adverse impact on the peace
process. However, he noted that the outcome could constrain
President Abbas' choices.

CARTER: NO IRREGULARITIES OBSERVED
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7. (SBU) Former President Carter visited two polling
stations in East Jerusalem earlier this morning and then
traveled outside the Jerusalem municipality to an al-'Izariya
(Bethany) polling station where he held a press conference.
He then moved on to visit several polling stations in the
Hebron area. According to the USAIDOff traveling with him,
he and his observer party did not notice any irregularities
at those stations.

VOTING SITE PROBLEMS
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8. (C) PolOff reported that the Mughtarbi al-Bireh School
polling site, north of Ramallah, has been the tensest site
visited so far in Ramallah. A large number of Fatah Tanzim
members had stood near the front door of the site with a
number of Hamas members nearby. PA security personnel there
were tense and had tried to quickly clear out the parking
lot. At other sites in Ramallah, plain-clothes security
personnel were observed inside a few of the polling stations.
Fatah/Hamas tensions continued to be evident outside several
polling stations where they had been allowed to campaign.
While both Hamas and Fatah had transportation to polling
sites organized for supporters, the Hamas motorpool appeared
more organized.

SECURITY INCIDENTS
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9. (C) The RSO received an unconfirmed report at 12:45 pm
that an al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade member had shot a Hamas
member in Khan Younis in the Gaza Strip. A later unconfirmed
report from the IDF stated that an al-Aqsa member in Beit
Hanoun in the Gaza Strip had shot and killed a Hamas member.
The RSO also relayed an unconfirmed report that, in Gaza
City, a hand grenade had been thrown into a polling place,
but there were no reports of injuries. Neither the PA Police
Control Room nor the President's Control Room had heard of
these incidents when asked by the RSO. RSO reported at 1:45
pm that 500 al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade members, of whom 100 were
armed, marched for an hour, without incident, Khan Younis in
support of Faruq Qaddumi, who is not running for election,
and against Muhammad Dahlan, who is running in Khan Younis.


10. (C) At 2:30 pm, the RSO received a report that an
al-Aqsa member had tried to enter a Rafah polling station
with his gun and was turned away. A similar incident was
reported at another polling place in Rafah, this time with a
Hamas member attempting to enter with a gun. He, too, was
turned back. The 15 women members of Hamas detained earlier
by Palestinian police for attempting to vote twice were
reportedly released.

MEDIA REPORTS
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11. (SBU) All the major pan-Arab stations and Palestinian
stations continued to run non-stop coverage of the
Palestinian elections. All media outlets continue to
broadcast from various polling stations in the West Bank and
Gaza and to carry interviews with candidates, officials, and
voters. In all cases, coverage of voting in East Jerusalem
has been limited to broadcasts only from the Salah Ed-din
Post Office polling station. (Note: Nile News carried an
interview with a scholar from Al Quds University, who claimed
Palestinian media outlets were prohibited from covering
elections inside Jerusalem. End note.)

-- Al-Arabiya carried a special live interview with Prime
Minister Ahmed Quraya', who said he had been prevented by
Israeli security forces from entering Jerusalem to visit
voting centers. He urged all Palestinians in Jerusalem to
vote.

-- Al-Arabiya later aired a statement by President Mahmoud
Abbas, in which he characterized the voting process as
smooth. He expected all stations to close by 7 pm, as large
numbers of eligible voters had already cast their ballots.

(Note: Both al-Hurra and PBC estimated that 30 percent of
voters had already visited polling stations. End note.)
Al-Arabiya reported it would have preliminary election
results starting at 7 pm. Al-Arabiya also hosted a heated
debate between Fatah-affiliated PLO Chief Negotiator Sa'eb
Erakat and Hamas leader Zahhar on corruption.

-- PBC replayed President Abbas' January 24 address to the
Palestinian people encouraging them to vote in the elections.
In addition to on-location reports and interviews, PBC
continues to carry images of Palestinians voting accompanied
by national songs encouraging people to vote in the
elections. PBC also reported that large numbers of
Palestinian women have been voting.

-- Al-Hurra reported that a polling station in Jenin had to
close for three hours after a member of the Islamic Jihad
members tried to vote.

-- In interviews with Palestinians outside a polling station
in East Jerusalem, the al-Hurra reporter spoke with both
Palestinians who have chosen not to vote, as they oppose
elections on the grounds that Jerusalem is occupied, and
Palestinians who see the elections as a way to strengthen the
Palestinian claim to Jerusalem.

-- The official Egyptian station, Nile News, also carried
continuous coverage of the Palestinian elections.
WALLES