PA ADVISOR AKRAM HANIYYAH ON POLITICAL STATE OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L JERUSALEM 002391 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE; NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/LOGERFO E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/09/2016 TAGS: KPAL KWBG PREL IS SUBJECT: PA ADVISOR AKRAM HANIYYAH ON POLITICAL STATE OF PLAY REF: JERUSALEM 02323 Classified By: Consul General Jake Walles, per reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C/NF) SUMMARY: Senior PA Advisor and "al-Ayyam" editor Akram Haniyyah told visiting NEA A/S Welch, the Consul General, and NSC/IPA LoGerfo on June 7 that President Abbas (Abu Mazen) is in a strong political position following his decision to call for a referendum on the prisoners' initiative. Haniyyah said the political momentum is with Abu Mazen and described the HAMAS-led government as deeply isolated, fractured, and losing popular support. Haniyyah observed, however, that HAMAS has a number of strategies available to it to disrupt the referendum, including escalating violence. END SUMMARY. -------------- Haniyyah: Political Momentum Is With Abu Mazen -------------- ¶2. (C/NF) Since the PA president's May 25 address to the initial national dialogue meeting, Haniyyah said HAMAS has been "on the defensive" and "political momentum" has been with Abu Mazen. Haniyyah described Abu Mazen as confident and determined to use the prisoners, initiative to bring about a new government that the international community can work with. ¶3. (C/NF) Haniyyah noted that the national dialogue and discussions over the prisoners' initiative had revealed a variety of fissures within HAMAS. These divisions have included disputes between West Bank and Gaza leaders; between internal and Damascus-based leaders; and between prisoners and the "outside" members. Haniyyah commented that HAMAS' inability to respond pragmatically to Abu Mazen's initiative, in spite of the internal leadership's desire to save the government, showed that the Damascus leadership is still making decisions for the movement. Haniyyah opined that the collapse of the perception of "monolithic unity" within HAMAS is a major victory. As Haniyyah put it, "We succeeded in destroying the nobility of HAMAS." -------------- Declining Support For HAMAS -------------- ¶4. (C/NF) Popular support for HAMAS is also waning, according to Haniyyah. He noted the recent Birzeit University poll that showed a substantial dip in public support for HAMAS since the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) elections (reftel). Haniyyah recounted that several of his PA interlocutors had commented on the government's incompetence. The government is "proving incapable of governing and people are saying in loud voices: 'Pay us now!'" Within the discourse of political Islam, Haniyyah detected heightening disenchantment with HAMAS among Muslim Brotherhood organizations as a result of the movement's failure at governing. -------------- Abu Mazen Must Stay The Course -------------- ¶5. (C/NF) The challenge for Abu Mazen, said Haniyyah, will be finding a way to keep HAMAS from "changing the course of events." Haniyyah discounted the possibility that HAMAS would offer an acceptable compromise on the prisoners' initiative, saying, "Decisions for HAMAS are still being made in Damascus." Haniyyah thought that HAMAS would fight to retain control of the government. ¶6. (C/NF) Hanniyah suggested HAMAS could try to sabotage the referendum through a variety of political means: boycotting the vote, tying up the political process in the courts, or bringing the referendum to the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) for consideration. (NOTE: The PA Basic Law is silent on the issue of whether the President can call a national referendum through a decree. END NOTE.) Alternatively, HAMAS could resort to violence, particularly in Gaza. Examining this possibility, Haniyyah commented grimly, "Of course, we have all the elements for a civil war." ¶7. (U) This cable was cleared by NEA A/S Welch. WALLES