ABU MAZEN, HAMAS HEADING TOWARD SHOW-DOWN OVER

C O N F I D E N T I A L JERUSALEM 002246 SIPDIS SIPDIS NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE, NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/LOGERFO E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/05/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV KWBG KPAL KDEM IS SUBJECT: ABU MAZEN, HAMAS HEADING TOWARD SHOW-DOWN OVER REFERENDUM Classified By: Consul General Jake Walles, per reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary. A show-down between Abu Mazen and Hamas is looming as the midnight June 5 deadline to reach consensus on the prisoners' initiative nears. Absent an agreement, Abu Mazen intends to proceed with a presidential decree to hold a referendum on the initiative within the next 40 days, according to sources in his office. Hamas officials have publicly expressed their opposition to a referendum. End summary. Referendum Deadline Looms -------------- ¶2. (C) Discussions among Palestinian factions in Ramallah on the prisoners' initiative have failed to make progress, according to Fatah contacts involved in the talks. With the 10-day deadline scheduled to expire June 5, Abu Mazen reportedly intends to issue a decree June 6 setting a date within the next 40 days for a national referendum. ¶3. (C) Abu Mazen informed representatives of the factions June 4 that the discussions he launched on three separate tracks -- one in Ramallah discussing the prisoners' initiative; a second track in Gaza to discuss recent Fatah-Hamas tensions over the Special Security Force; and a third track to discuss a mechanism for restructuring the PLO -- have stalled due to Hamas' refusal to cooperate on building consensus on the prisoners' initiative. (Note: Based on the reported lack of progress, Abu Mazen decided to postpone a meeting with PM Isma'il Haniyyah in Gaza. End note.) Hamas Rejects Deadline And Referendum -------------- ¶4. (C) Hamas officials in Gaza and Damascus have publicly criticized Abu Mazen's plans to move forward with a national referendum, charging that the referendum is intended to undermine the legitimacy of the Hamas-led PA. Gaza-based Hamas spokesperson Sami Abu Zuhri told the press that Hamas views a referendum as illegitimate and that further discussions over the prisoners' initiative should take place in Gaza. (Note: Since the start of the discussions on May 26, Hamas officials have lobbied without success to move the talks from Ramallah to Gaza. End note.) Hamas officials have also publicly argued that no legal basis exists for holding a national referendum. The PFLP has announced that it would oppose a referendum. CEC to Defer to Abu Mazen -------------- ¶5. (C) Palestinian Central Elections Commission (CEC) Chief Electoral Officer Ammar Dweik confided to ConGen Poloff June 5 that the CEC felt "ill at ease" with moving forward with a referendum in the absence of a PLC-approved law. Dweik expects that the issue will likely end up in the Palestinian courts. WALLES