ABU MAZEN, HAMAS HEADING TOWARD SHOW-DOWN OVER

C O N F I D E N T I A L JERUSALEM 002246

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE, NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/LOGERFO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/05/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV KWBG KPAL KDEM IS
SUBJECT: ABU MAZEN, HAMAS HEADING TOWARD SHOW-DOWN OVER
REFERENDUM

Classified By: Consul General Jake Walles, per reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary. A show-down between Abu Mazen and Hamas
is looming as the midnight June 5 deadline to reach consensus
on the prisoners' initiative nears. Absent an agreement, Abu
Mazen intends to proceed with a presidential decree to hold a
referendum on the initiative within the next 40 days,
according to sources in his office. Hamas officials have
publicly expressed their opposition to a referendum. End
summary.

Referendum Deadline Looms
--------------


2. (C) Discussions among Palestinian factions in Ramallah
on the prisoners' initiative have failed to make progress,
according to Fatah contacts involved in the talks. With the
10-day deadline scheduled to expire June 5, Abu Mazen
reportedly intends to issue a decree June 6 setting a date
within the next 40 days for a national referendum.


3. (C) Abu Mazen informed representatives of the factions
June 4 that the discussions he launched on three separate
tracks -- one in Ramallah discussing the prisoners'
initiative; a second track in Gaza to discuss recent
Fatah-Hamas tensions over the Special Security Force; and a
third track to discuss a mechanism for restructuring the PLO
-- have stalled due to Hamas' refusal to cooperate on
building consensus on the prisoners' initiative. (Note:
Based on the reported lack of progress, Abu Mazen decided to
postpone a meeting with PM Isma'il Haniyyah in Gaza. End
note.)

Hamas Rejects Deadline
And Referendum
--------------


4. (C) Hamas officials in Gaza and Damascus have publicly
criticized Abu Mazen's plans to move forward with a national
referendum, charging that the referendum is intended to
undermine the legitimacy of the Hamas-led PA. Gaza-based
Hamas spokesperson Sami Abu Zuhri told the press that Hamas
views a referendum as illegitimate and that further
discussions over the prisoners' initiative should take place
in Gaza. (Note: Since the start of the discussions on May
26, Hamas officials have lobbied without success to move the
talks from Ramallah to Gaza. End note.) Hamas officials
have also publicly argued that no legal basis exists for
holding a national referendum. The PFLP has announced that
it would oppose a referendum.

CEC to Defer to Abu Mazen
--------------


5. (C) Palestinian Central Elections Commission (CEC)
Chief Electoral Officer Ammar Dweik confided to ConGen POLOFF
June 5 that the CEC felt "ill at ease" with moving forward
with a referendum in the absence of a PLC-approved law.
Dweik expects that the issue will likely end up in the
Palestinian courts.

WALLES