C O N F I D E N T I A L JERUSALEM 001648

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE, NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/LOGERFO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/24/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV KWBG KPAL KDEM IS
SUBJECT: FORMER PLC MEMBER ASSESSES ELECTIONS, HAMAS, AND
UNILATERAL DISENGAGEMENT FOR SENATOR DODD


Classified By: Consul General Jake Walles, per reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary. Former Palestinian Legislative Council
(PLC) member Ziad Abu Zayyad (Jerusalem, independent) April
21 presented his assessment of the challenges confronting
Palestinians and the Hamas-led Palestinian Authority (PA) to
Senator Christopher Dodd and the Consul General. On the
recent PLC elections, Abu Zayyad argued that Fatah's internal
problems and the Palestinian public's anger over corruption
and the peace process contributed to the Hamas margin of
victory, but he cautioned that the outcome should not be
interpreted as overwhelming public support for Hamas or its
agenda. Abu Zayyad predicted that Hamas would not accept the
Quartet requirements absent significant Israeli concessions
and would instead seek ways to offset the financial crisis
and its international political isolation. Abu Zayyad warned
that further Israeli unilateral measures in the West Bank
would likely produce the type of instability witnessed in the
Gaza Strip. End summary.

Abu Zayyad Evaluates
Hamas PLC Victory
--------------


2. (C) During an April 21 meeting with Senator Christopher
Dodd and the Consul General, former PLC member Ziad Abu
Zayyad offered his assessment of the Hamas victory in the
January 25 PLC elections. According to Abu Zayyad, a
combination of factors -- namely Fatah mismanagement/disunity
coupled with public's frustration with corruption and the
stalled peace process with Israel -- contributed to the
election results. He argued that Hamas succeeded by tapping
into those frustrations and employing a mixture of effective
campaign slogans and tactics that successfully won over
Palestinian voters. While Hamas' election victory was
significant, Abu Zayyad said that a careful review of the
election results suggests that Hamas garnered less than 45
percent of the voting public's support. Its margin of
victory (74 Hamas PLC seats versus 45 for Fatah) had more to
do with the complexities of the Palestinian electoral system
and Fatah's inability to put forward strong candidates in the
district races.


3. (C) Abu Zayyad noted the regional significance of the
Hamas victory, as it represented the first time that an
organization with ties to the Muslim Brotherhood had acquired
political power. He expected Hamas to resist pressure to
relinquish power. According to Abu Zayyad, Hamas is
perceived among Palestinians as the vanguard against Israeli
occupation and will not easily change its well-known public
positions. He predicted that Hamas would seek to drag out
for months or even years consideration of the three Quartet
requirements. In his view, any movement by Hamas toward
recognizing Israel or renouncing violence would require a
number of Israeli concessions. Abu Zayyad argued that
Palestinians viewed their national aspirations as paramount
to other concerns, such as payment of civil service salaries.

Chaos to Follow West
Bank Unilateral Withdrawal
--------------


4. (C) In response to Senator Dodd's assessment that the
Government of Israel (GOI) is committed to moving forward
with disengagement from areas of the West Bank, Abu Zayyad
warned that unilateral measures would likely result in
further violence. He pointed to the chaotic situation in the
Gaza Strip following Israeli disengagement, with militants
launching rockets and the IDF responding with artillery
shells, as a harbinger of what would happen in the West Bank.
Despite the dangers, Abu Zayyad agreed that Israeli PM
Olmert would press ahead with unilateral disengagement from
the West Bank and assert that Israel had thereby fulfilled
its obligations under UN Security Council Resolution 242.

Abu Mazen Trying to
Stem Hamas Moves
--------------


5. (C) Abu Zayyad said that Abu Mazen is trying to be more
assertive vis--vis Hamas, but Hamas had so far challenged
him at every step. He highlighted the April 20 announcement
by Hamas of the appointment of Popular Resistance Committee
leader Jamal Abu Samhadaneh as Inspector General of the PA
Ministry of Interior, a move that Abu Zayyad said is designed
to counter the nomination of Gaza PSO head Rashid Abu Shbak
as internal security chief. Abu Zayyad suggested that Abu
Mazen is determined to avoid blame for any Hamas failings.


6. (U) Senator Dodd did not have an opportunity to clear
this cable.

WALLES