AMM TO STAY IN ACEH THROUGH ELECTIONS (NOVEMBER 22)

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/24/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL ID
SUBJECT: AMM TO STAY IN ACEH THROUGH ELECTIONS (NOVEMBER 22)


Classified By: Acting DCM William Frej, for reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Aceh Monitoring Mission chief Peter Feith
told the Ambassador in Aceh that the AMM had decided to
extend its presence in Aceh through the new elections on
November 22, a date which has not yet been announced
publicly. The Ambassador, accompanied by USAID Mission
Director Frej and U.S. Consul General Stein on a visit to
Banda Aceh on July 22, discussed election candidates, the
mobilizing of assistance to ensure free and fair elections,
and whether the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) would be able to
transform itself into a political force capable of contesting
elections and governing in a peaceful Aceh. Citing a recent
TNI shooting incident that is under investigation, Feith
underscored the need to limit the role of the Indonesian
military (TNI) in post-election Aceh while strengthening the
police as guardians of civil order. Feith and AMM
interlocutors expressed surprise but also satisfaction at the
high degree of apparent public acceptance so far of the Law
on the Administration of Aceh, passed by the Indonesian
National Parliament on July 11 and now awaiting President
Yudhoyono's signature. Noting that GAM has yet to take an
official position on the law, Feith said the GAM should
resolve its outstanding concerns about the law and support it
strongly. End summary.


2. (U) Ambassador Pascoe visited Banda Aceh on July 22 to
review USAID programs and meet with key figures in Aceh,s
tsunami reconstruction and the implementation of the GOI,s

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peace accords with the Free Aceh Movement (GAM). The
Ambassador was accompanied by USAID Mission Director William
Frej and newly-arrived Medan Consul General Sean Stein.


3. (C) At a meeting with Aceh Monitoring Mission head Peter
Feith and two senior AMM political analysts, the Ambassador
was told the implementation of the Memorandum of
Understanding (MOU) with the GAM was "going well." Feith
described the AMM as a victim of its own success in agreeing
to yet another extension. Because all parties in the peace
negotiations perceived AMM as an effective, impartial
observer, Feith explained, both President Yudhoyono and
GAM,s senior leadership had asked AMM to remain in Aceh
through the scheduled (though not yet announced) elections on
November 22.


4. (C) On the question of supporting the local election
authorities to ensure a free and fair election, Feith said
the EU had a significant election support program through
UNDP and would send a delegation of election observers.
Frej said USAID planned to support the election process
through traditional implementing partners IFES, NDI and IRI.


5. (C) On the role of the GAM in the local elections and its
evolving role in Aceh politics, Feith noted that, among the
seven pairs of candidates for governor and deputy governor,
only one candidate had selected a GAM running mate. Feith
said GAM had divided into two groups: the"old guard"
including Malik Mahmud, who for decades had articulated
GAM,s political aspirations from exile abroad, and the
"young commanders" including Irwandy Yusuf, who wanted GAM to
become an effective participant in local politics and,
eventually, a group capable of governing. In short, Feith
said, the GAM had to decide whether it wanted to be dogmatic
or pragmatic.


6. (C) As a step toward learning to govern, meeting
participants agreed, GAM must first define positions on
practical issues ranging from provision of government
services to outlining a concrete vision for Aceh,s future.
One AMM analyst in the meeting noted that GAM members had
expressed a desire for Aceh to be run "like Singapore," but
had done little to develop an actual plan to achieve that
goal. Participants generally agreed that if GAM was unable
to make the transition to a political party with the capacity
to govern, it might well disappear as Aceh became integrated
into mainstream Indonesian politics.


7. (C) When asked what factors might complicate the further
implementation of the peace accords, Peter Feith and the
Ambassador expressed concerns about the role of the
Indonesian National Army (TNI). The extent of TNI deployment
in the province following the recent adoption of the Law on
Governing Aceh (LOGA) has yet to be determined. Feith
pointed to a July 3 incident in Lokseumawe, in which TNI
soldiers allegedly fired into a crowd of civilians (killing
one),as an example of the ongoing need to define and
possibly limit TNI presence in the province and of the need
to strengthen the capacity of the police to provide for
public safety.


8. (C) Overall, participants expressed surprise but also

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satisfaction at the relative acceptance with which the LOGA
had been greeted in Aceh. Although most Acehnese did not
regard the LOGA as perfect, it did provide a substantial
degree of authority to the next elected government including:
shared management of the province's significant oil and gas
resources; permission to register local political parties;
permission to register candidates for office independently of
party affiliation; and the right of the elected governor to
appoint the provincial chief of police and chief prosecutor.
Participants agreed it would be in GAM,s best interest to
resolve its outstanding concerns about the law and then
support it strongly. By electing its members to office, the
GAM could ensure its continued organizational viability and
ability to exercise political influence through the
significant power the LOGA offered.


9. (C) Participants agreed that widespread acceptance of the
LOGA was essential to the successful conclusion of the peace
process. Feith urged USG support in familiarizing the
Acehnese population with the provisions of the law, and the
Ambassador said that support would be forthcoming once all
sides had expressed unequivocal support for the law's
implementation.


10. (C) AMM participants said it was too early to predict the
next governor. Chief Operating Officer Eddy Purwanto of the
Agency for Reconstruction and Rehabilitation (BRR),however,
said public support for former Acting Governor Azwar Abubakar
appeared to be fading, although Abubakar had the largest
financial resources of all the candidates. Public sentiment,
according to Purwanto, was building for Human Hamid.
Interlocutors throughout the day stressed that the candidates
had not yet registered officially and the race had yet to
begin in earnest.
PASCOE