DONORS OFFER FINANCING, EARTHQUAKE HELP AT CGI

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 JAKARTA 008006 SIPDIS SIPDIS SENSITIVE AIDAC DEPT FOR EAP/MTS AND EB/ODF TREASURY FOR IA-BAUKOL USDOC FOR WGOLIKE/4430 AND JBENDER DEPT PASS TO USTR DKATZ AND WEISEL E.O. 12598: N/A TAGS: EAID EINV ECON EFIN KMCA PTER PREL ID SUBJECT: DONORS OFFER FINANCING, EARTHQUAKE HELP AT CGI MEETING ¶1. (U) Summary. Coordinating Minister for the Economy Boediono and other Government of Indonesia (GOI) ministers expressed optimism that economic growth and investment would pick up in the second half of 2006 at the June 14 Consultative Group on Indonesia (CGI) meeting in Jakarta. Several Ministers emphasized the need to boost investment, and expressed hope that new investment and infrastructure measures would help. The GOI also announced several ambitious anti-poverty intitiatives, including nationwide community development and conditional cash transfer programs, though these are only in the concept and assessment phase. Coordinating Minister for Political, Legal and Security Affairs Widodo Adi Sucipto reaffirmed the GOI's commitment to reducing corruption and said the GOI will establish a civil service reform institution reporting to the President. Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati announced the GOI faces a USD 4.3 - 4.6 billion financing gap in 2006, which donor pledges of loans and grants more than covered at USD 5.4 billion. A preliminary damage and loss assessment for the May 27 Yogyakarta earthquake was larger than expected, at about USD 3.1 billion. Donors have already provided or pledged USD 64.1 million in earthquake assistance. The Head of the Aceh Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Agency, Kuntoro Mangkusubroto urged donors not to forget Aceh, which still has a USD 1.3 billion gap between pledged funds and needs. End Summary. Economic Outlook -------------- ¶2. (U) Coordinating Minister for the Economy Boediono chaired a meeting of the CGI meeting on June 14 attended by approximately 30 donor representations and a quarter of the GOI cabinet ministers. Boediono and other Ministers emphasized that, "Indonesia needs more growth, and needs this growth to reach the poor better than the past." Boediono said he hopes that the new policy packages on infrastructure and investment would begin to stimulate growth in the second half of the year. The GOI will also announce a new financial sector reform package to help strengthen capital markets, the banking sector, and the non- bank financial sector including pensions and insurance. More Investment Needed -------------- ¶3. (U) Boediono noted the "urgent need to change investor sentiment" about Indonesia. Finance Minister Mulyani echoed Boediono, noting that growth has not been high enough to create sufficient job opportunities and cut poverty levels. First quarter growth was 4.6 percent YoY but Mulyani said she believes Indonesia could return to growth of 6 - 6.5 percent in 2007. She also acknowledged the need for more investment in Indonesia. "We realize regional competition for investment dollars is increasing with our Asian neighbors focusing their energies on creating a more favorable environment for the private sector. Not only do we need to do the same, but better and faster." Mulyani admitted the GOI was not happy with the pace of infrastructure projects, but noted she had recently signed a Ministerial decree (PMK 38/2006) for GOI risk sharing in infrastructure projects with public-private partnership. She said the Ministry of Finance (MOF) is also working hard to modernize the Directorates General of Tax and Customs, and remove illegal local taxes and levies. Fiscal Prudence -------------- ¶4. (U) Mulyani emphasized that the GOI remains committed to fiscal prudence despite rising social needs and that Indonesia's economy is strong enough to weather macro shocks. The budget deficit is trending towards 1.3 - 1.5 percent of GDP for FY 2006, higher than the 0.5 percent in the 2005 budget. Mulyani said the deficit is financeable despite recent volatility in foreign exchange and capital markets. The MOF hopes the deficit would fall to between JAKARTA 00008006 002 OF 005 0.7 and 0.9 percent in 2007. The GOI's budget implementation is improving, with budget spending proceeding more efficiently than in previous years but still slower than expected. As of April 31, the GOI had only spent Rp 9.4 trillion (USD 1 billion) of a budgeted Rp 21 trillion (USD 2.2 billion) carryover spending from 2005. ¶5. (U) Mulyani noted that President Yudhoyono approved a reorganization plan for the MOF in early June that will create new Directorates General for Fiscal Balance and Debt Management as well as a new Fiscal Policy Office with the goal of improving the quality of treasury management and public spending. Despite the challenges, Mulyani was optimistic that the GOI would "continue to maintain macroeconomic policies that can endure potential external shocks and market disruptions." Development Policy Initiatives -------------- ¶6. (U) Boediono also briefed donors on two new major development policy initiatives. Under the first initiative, the GOI plans to scale up community-driven development programs, currently covering several thousand villages, to nationwide coverage over the next three years. The goal is to improve local infrastructure and empower villagers to prioritize spending. The second program would create a "world-class" Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) program under which the GOI would give monthly cash transfers to poor families if they meet certain conditions, possibly including enrolling children in secondary school and obtaining pre- natal care for expecting mothers and vaccinations for children. Boediono says the GOI envisions the CCT as an adaptation and improvement of the current unconditional cash transfer program, initially designed to protect the poorest households from the shock of the fuel price increases of October 2005. The GOI hopes the new program could begin in 2007, after the State Ministry for National Development Planning (Bappenas) completes an evaluation of the unconditional cash transfer program. Security, Governance and Civil Service Reform -------------- ¶7. (U) Coordinating Minister for Politics, Law and Security Widodo Adi Sucipto acknowledged Indonesia's security problems, stating that the GOI still needs to increase its efforts to fight terrorist acts. The GOI has revised laws in Anti-Terrorism, and its Criminal Procedures Code. The GOI also ratified the International Convention for the Suppression of Terrorist Bombing (through Law 5/2006) and International Convention for the Suppression of Financing Terrorism (through Law 6/2006). Incidents of sea piracy have fallen from 94 in 2004 to 79 in 2005. Legal sector reforms are still "far from public expectations, however." Widodo also acknowledged bureaucratic reform as a principle problem, stating "there have been numerous examples of nepotism within the recruitment, career and promotion system for civil servants that bring about the seeds of corruption, which breeds in every element of governance." ¶8. (SBU) Boediono also noted that the GOI "recognizes the need for comprehensive civil service reform" and would establish a "new institution connected to the President's office, which will report directly to him." In their comments, many donors noted that civil service reform is both politically and bureaucratically difficult. The old socialist mindset of full employment regardless of results dies hard, and a number of overlapping agencies have responsibility for various aspects of the civil service. Indonesia's bureaucracy is currently an obstacle to reform, operating with distorted incentives, obsolete procedures and inappropriate skills. Members of the CGI's Legal, Judicial and Anti-Corruption Working Group stated in writing that, "Donors consider a professional, merit-based, performance- focused, and responsive civil service as a major pillar of an effective corruption prevention strategy." USAID is also JAKARTA 00008006 003 OF 005 assisting in this area with programs to assist in anti- corruption efforts, as well as legal and judicial sector reform. Financing Gap -------------- ¶9. (U) Mulyani said that Indonesia's financing needs for 2006 would be between USD 16.7 - 17.0 billion, of which the GOI will finance domestically USD 12.0 to 12.3 billion. The GOI plans to utilize foreign grants and loans to finance the additional USD 4.4 to 4.7 billion, of which CGI members will contribute USD 3.9 - 4.2 billion. The GOI thus requested USD 4.3 to 4.6 billion to fill its financing gap. Yogyakarta Earthquake Damage and Loss -------------- ¶10. (U) Indonesia suffered its third major natural disaster Indonesia in 18 months on May 27, when a 6.3 magnitude earthquake struck the Javanese cultural and historical center of Yogyakarta and surrounding districts. GOI officials presented the "Preliminary Damage and Loss Assessment" estimating the total loss and damage at USD 3.1 billion. (See www.rehabyogyajateng.bappenas.go.id for the full report.) Estimates were much higher than previously expected because the quake hit 11 of the most densely populated districts in the country, home to more than 8.3 million people, where much of the housing was poorly constructed. An estimated 50,000 substandard houses collapsed, severely injuring thousands. Yogyakarta is also Indonesia's second most popular tourist destination after Bali. While its famous Borobudur Temple was undamaged, the 9th Century Hindu Prambanan Temple suffered a "medium" amount of damage. An estimated 30,000 small and medium enterprises (SMEs),including thousands of small-scale handicraft producers, suffered damage from the quake, causing a loss of earnings to about 650,000 workers and 2.5 million of their dependents. ¶11. (U) The human toll, while not as huge as Aceh, was still significant. There are an estimated 5,700 dead, 40,000 injured and 200,000 homeless. Fortunately, unlike the December 2004 tsunami disaster in Aceh, much of the infrastructure (roads, airport) surrounding the Yogyakarta disaster area remain functional enough for relief supplies to flow in quickly. Housing damage and losses account for 50 percent of the total with 154,000 houses destroyed and 260,000 damaged. ¶12. (U) Boediono was unsure exactly how much budget funds the GOI would be able to put toward the earthquake reconstruction in 2006 and 2007. However, at earlier meetings, senior BAPPENAS officials have said they hope the GOI could provide at least USD 500 million in funds. Donor pledges to date for earthquake assistance total USD 64.1 million, with several donors stating they could provide more after consultations with capitals and Parliaments. Don't Forget Aceh -------------- ¶13. (U) The head of the Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Agency for Aceh and Nias (BRR) Kuntoro Mangkusubroto urged donors not to forget the ongoing needs in the tsunami-and earthquake affected areas of Aceh and Nias. Of the USD 6 billion needed in Aceh, donors have only committed USD 4.7 billion of a pledged USD 7.1 billion. Kuntoro expressed concern that international non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and other donors may not cover the USD 1.3 billion gap because they are distracted by new crises. Reconstruction is expensive, Kuntoro noted, and inflation is affecting prices for materials and labor. Kuntoro also reaffirmed BRR's commitment to fighting corruption, noting its anti-corruption unit had investigated 465 of 528 reports of corruption. Aceh remains the "biggest reconstruction challenge in recent history," Kuntoro emphasized. "There is JAKARTA 00008006 004 OF 005 no room for complacency or misplaced competition. More help is needed." Donors Respond Generously -------------- ¶14. (U) Donors responded generously to Indonesia's request for assistance, more than covering Indonesia's financing gap. Total CGI pledges came to USD 5.4 billion, USD 3.9 billion in the form of loans or grants channeled through the central government budget. Of the USD 3.9 billion, USD 3.7 billion is loan assistance and USD 200 million is grant assistance. The World Bank said it would provide USD 900 million - 1.1 billion, noting it was impressed with the "clarity of Indonesia's objectives." The Asian Development Bank said it would provide USD 300 million in project loans and 600 - 700 million in program loans, along with USD 10 million for earthquake response. Indonesia is the U.K.'s largest development program in Southeast Asia at USD 92 million with additional USD 45.5 million of grant assistance. South Korea is providing USD 100 million in loans. Germany is giving USD 240 million in project assistance this year along with USD 1.6 million in earthquake relief. Japan did not announce a dollar figure, but noted its assistance to Indonesia includes soft loans, grants, infrastructure lending and other project assistance, as well as disaster mitigation and response planning. ¶15. (U) USAID Director Frej emphasized that the GOI's leadership has been impressive in several areas including community-driven reconstruction efforts; commitment to peace in Aceh; its regional leadership in ASEAN; and its deepening of democracy and its counter-terrorism efforts. USAID has committed USD 170 million for FY 2006 and anticipates the Millennium Challenge Corporation's Threshold program, if approved, would be about USD 55 million. The U.S. also provided USD 5 million in emergency earthquake assistance. USAID's ongoing assistance programs will help in several priority areas: a) improving the quality of basic education; b) improving the delivery of essential public services at the community level; c) creating a better business, trade and investment environment that will support economic growth; d) promoting more accountable and transparent governance at the national and local levels; and e) promoting biodiversity and environmental protection. GOI Participation -------------- ¶16. (U) Vice President Jusuf Kalla delivered a luncheon address to CGI participants. Other GOI Ministers who attended all or some of the meeting included Coordinating Minister for Political, Legal and Security Affairs Widodo Adi Sucipto; Coordinating Minister for the Economy Boediono; State Minister for National Development Planning Paskah Suzetta; Minister of Finance Sri Mulyani Indrawati; Minister of Trade Mari Elka Pangestu; Attorney General Abdul Rachman Saleh; and Minister of Industry Fahmi Idris. Governor of Bank Indonesia Burhanuddin Abdullah attended the morning session, and Anti-Corruption Commission (KPK) Deputy Chairman Erry Riyana Hardjapamekas also participated in the meeting. Comment: Has the CGI Format Run its Course? -------------- ¶17. (SBU) For the second consecutive time, the GOI organized and hosted the CGI meeting, which it had postponed several times from January, to March, to June. At the end of the day, the Yogyakarta eatthquake likely motivated the GOI to nail down ad ate. We agree with Canada, Germany, and other donors who have suggested the CGI format may have run its course and should be redefined to facilitate more substantive discussion of development policies rather than JAKARTA 00008006 005 OF 005 serve as a pledging forum. Given Indonesia's heavy debt burden, the GOI is also uncomfortable with the image of Indonesia seeking foreign loans from so many wealthy countries. Although the GOI did not announce any changes on June 14, we suspect it will reform the CGI format before calling the next meeting, possibly by eliminating the pledging session and relabeling the CGI as a "development forum." AMSELEM