WHAT'S NEXT FOR ABU BAKAR BA'ASYIR AND JEMAAH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 007398 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP/MTS AND S/CT DOJ FOR CTS THORNTON, AAG SWARTZ FBI FOR ETTIU/SSA ROTH E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/12/2026 TAGS: PTER PREL PGOV KJUS KISL KVPR ASEC AS ID SUBJECT: WHAT'S NEXT FOR ABU BAKAR BA'ASYIR AND JEMAAH ISLAMIYAH? REF: A. JAKARTA 05040 PROSECUTORS UNFAZED BY TESTIMONY ¶B. JAKARTA 02848 BA'ASYIR REVIEW MOVES FORWARD ¶C. 05 JAKARTA 10920 POLICE REPORT CHANGE IN JI ¶D. 05 JAKARTA 11208 GOI CUTS BA'ASYIR'S SENTENCE ¶E. 05 JAKARTA 11125 PRISON SENTENCE ¶F. 05 JAKARTA 03026 BA'ASYIR CONVICTED ¶G. 04 JAKARTA 10696 TERROR FINANCE: DEWAN DAKWAH Classified By: Political Officer David Willis For Reasons 1.4 (b) and ( d) SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) On June 14, Jemaah Islamiyah spiritual leader Abu Bakar Ba'asyir will leave Cipinang Penitentiary a free man, having completed his second prison term. Majelis Mujahidin Indonesia (MMI),the political wing of JI, and an interdenominational group of religious leaders plan to greet the cleric upon his release. The Indonesian National Police (INP) have no plans to re-arrest the terrorist leader, but senior INP counterterrorism investigators told us the INP will keep Ba'asyir under both technical and physical surveillance. However, INP CT forces will continue to target more operational figures, such as Noordin Mohammad Top and Abdul Rahim, Ba'asyir's son, and any monitoring of Ba'asyir will likely remain limited and peripheral to primary targets. INP CT investigators have dismissed the notion that Ba'asyir will assume an operational role with JI upon his release. At a minimum, we can expect Ba'asyir to seek opportunities to exonerate himself in the public eye and to seek every opportunity to criticize the U.S. and bolster extremist ideology. End Summary. IMMINENT RELEASE AND RETURN TO SOLO, NGRUKI -------------- ¶2. (C) Officials at Cipinang Penitentiary publicly announced that they will release Jemaah Islamiyah spiritual leader Abu Bakar Ba'asyir on June 14 at the completion of his second prison term. Convicted on March 2, 2005 for his role in blessing the 2002 Bali bombings in a "sinister conspiracy to cause a fire or explosion, resulting in deaths"(ref F), Ba'asyir has completed this 30-month sentence, commuted by 4 1/2 months in a routine Indonesian Independence Day act (ref D, E). GOI prosecutors most directly involved in the Ba'asyir trials have told us they do not intend to file new charges against the 68 year old cleric (ref A, B),and Indonesian National Police (INP) counterterrorism investigators said to us they have no plans to re-arrest him. ¶3. (SBU) Local press reports that members of Majelis Mujahidin Indonesia (MMI) from the Jakarta, Bogor, Tangerang, and Bekasi areas will greet Ba'asyir upon his release. According to the state-supported Antara News Agency, several religious leaders will join MMI at the prison doors to support the Indonesian system of justice. These include Hussein Umar from Dewan Dakwah Islamiya Indonesia (ref G); Pastor Nathan Setiabudi, the former head of the Communion of Churches in Indonesia (PGI),an organization representing most Protestant denominations, and one of five religious leaders who met President Bush in 2003 during his visit to Bali; Theo Bella, a Catholic leader; Arifin Ilham, a highly-visible Sufi tele-preacher; and Hartono, a Buddhist. ¶4. (C) After his release, according to MMI's public statements, Ba'asyir will fly to Yogyakarta en route to Solo, Central Java. He will return to his Al Mukmin "Ngruki" pesantran, which his son, Abdul Rahim, currently manages. Ngruki maintains its reputation as a breeding ground for the violent JI ideology as well as for training and recruiting new JI members. Senior INP CT officers name Rahim as a primary target, suspected of being JI's link with Al-Qaeda. Deputy Chief of the INP's Criminal Investigative Division and defacto head of Team Bomb, Inspector General Gories Mere, told us the INP will keep Ba'asyir under both technical and physical surveillance. However, the INP will prioritize its limited human and financial resources to track Noordin Mohammad Top and to investigate Rahim. Head of the INP Special Detachment-88 General Bekto Suprapto acknowledged monitoring of Ba'asyir may be limited but said dedicated JAKARTA 00007398 002 OF 002 surveillance of Rahim likely would provide coverage of Ba'asyir. REJOINING A CHANGED TERRORIST NETWORK -------------- ¶5. (C) INP CT investigators maintain their assessment that their on-going efforts have shut down the formal JI structure that operated prior to the 2002 Bali bombings (ref C). They recently sketched out for us JI's cell network behavior from information gathered after arrests over the past few months, revealing a much flatter and decentralized organizational structure. Local JI experts agree that the hundreds of arrests and successful prosecutions by the GOI have taken a significant toll on JI's command and control structure and have hampered its efforts to spread its ideology. ¶6. (C) INP CT officials and local JI experts consistently raise the point that Ba'asyir likely has lost portions of the support base he enjoyed prior to his initial arrest although they admit that relaxed prison regulations allowing Ba'asyir to maintain outside contacts may offset this loss. According to International Crisis Group's JI expert Sidney Jones, JI has been split for the past several years over support for active bombing campaigns, and Ba'asyir has been criticized for not taking a more forward leaning position on undertaking terrorist attacks. If true, Ba'asyir and Abu Rusdan lead the less-operational faction with Noordin M. Top and Abu Dujana heading the list of those usually suspected of pushing for more violence. ¶7. (C) Ba'asyir's ability to take an active role as spiritual leader remains largely unknown but poses the greatest threat towards increased agitation. Known more for his command of radical doctrine than his operational leadership, Ba'asyir has compared his indoctrination role to that of a "knife maker" who holds no responsibility for how others use his knives. Nasir Abas, a reformed JI member who knew Ba'asyir and now consults with the INP on CT issues, speculates Ba'asyir will attempt to rebuild a JI ideology. Abas believes Ba'asyir likely will focus on building MMI, which Ba'asyir co-founded in 2000 and still chairs. British Embassy counterparts told us they have information suggesting MMI's current leadership may not welcome Ba'asyir after his release and may resist efforts by Ba'asyir to regain direct control of the group. Whether or not Ba'asyir can take hold of the reigns of power, we can expect him to reassert himself in the public eye and to criticize the United States publicly. He will certainly continue to be a strong voice in support of extremist ideas. PASCOE