VOTE COUNTS FINAL IN PAPUAN GUBERNATORIAL RACES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 004407 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/05/2016 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINS KDEM ID SUBJECT: VOTE COUNTS FINAL IN PAPUAN GUBERNATORIAL RACES REF: A. JAKARTA 3160 (PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS LIKELY TO SEAL DIVISION OF PROVINCE) ¶B. JAKARTA 3246 (SUEBU AND ATURURI LIKELY WINNERS) JAKARTA 00004407 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Classified By Mark D. Clark, Acting Political Counselor. Reason: 1.4 (b, d) ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The Provincial Election Commissions of Papua and West Irian Jaya have announced final vote tabulations in direct elections for governor held on March 10 and March 11 respectively. On March 22, the Electoral Commission of West Irian Jaya certified incumbent Bram Atururi as the victor, while in Papua Bas Suebu's slim lead over Lukas Enembe was confirmed by the Electoral Commission there. Losers in both provinces have announced their intentions to use their right to seek legal redress, but their chances of altering the outcome appear remote. Despite concern that Enembe supporters might resort to violence, the situation in Jayapura remained calm. Although the exact date depends on the courts' response to appeals by the losers, Suebu and Atururi will likely be sworn in by late April. End summary. West Irian Jaya: Atururi Holds Wide Lead -------------- ¶2. (SBU) On March 23, West Irian Jaya's Provincial Electoral Commission (KPUD) held its fina>sz B?-Qg to Electoral Commission statistics. An exception was the city of Sorong, where turnout was only 42 percent. Most religious leaders who supported the boycott were based in Sorong, and some members of the elite there reportedly oppose consolidation of West Irian Jaya province because they want Sorong to be created a province of its own at some point in the future. A Chat With The Governor-Elect -------------- ¶5. (C) Governor-elect Atururi met with POLOFF in Manokwari on March 27. At some length, he disparaged his challenger Yorrys Raweyai, to whom he said he was related. Yorrys, Bram charged, had falsified his secondary education credentials, and had in reality had never graduated from high school; this should legally disqualify him from holding the governorship. Yorrys, Bram said, had not benefited from Golkar's historic strength in West Irian Jaya because being three-quarters ethnic Chinese, he was "not seen as a real Papuan" and was therefore rejected by most voters. (Comment: This explanation should be taken with a grain of salt. The number of transmigrants in West Irian Jaya is by some estimates over 50 percent of the province's total population. For these voters authentic Papuan identity is presumably not a campaign issue. Yorrys has a dubious past as a gang leader and leading figure in the often thuggish Pancasila Youth organization. End Comment.) ¶6. (C) Looking ahead, Atururi showed little interest in resolving the longstanding problems of Special Autonomy implementation and the division of the province. While he ridiculed the Papuan People's Assembly as "illiterates," he said he was not opposed in principle in reaching a settlement with it. Jumping on the trendy anti-Freeport bandwagon, Atururi said that the American company's One Percent Fund should benefit the entire population of Papua, not just those groups living near its mining operations. A former one-star JAKARTA 00004407 002.2 OF 002 Marine General, Atururi supports an increased and modernized Indonesian military - particularly naval -- presence in West Irian Jaya to combat illegal fishing and logging. Papua: Bas Suebu Squeaks Ahead -------------- ¶7. (SBU) In neighboring Papua province, the Provincial Electoral Commission (KPUD) conducted its final count of the March 10 vote on April 3 in an atmosphere of tension. Over the past week, the city of Jayapura - already uneasy following the March 16 riot - was rife with rumors that supporters of Lukas Enembe, who had alleged fraud in Yahukimo regency, would resort to violence if their candidate was not declared the victor. Enembe's base of support is primarily among Central Highland tribes, who are regarded as more aggressive than coastal people. In the days prior to the final count, members of the Electoral Commission received threats via phone and text message. The caretaker governor, religious and civil society leaders called for calm. ¶8. (SBU) The threatened violence failed to materialize on April 3, perhaps deterred by a large police presence at the Electoral Commission offices during the final count. Two Enembe supporters were expelled from the proceedings when they disruptively began to demand that the count be stopped. In the end, the KPUD confirmed the interim result that the PDI-P ticket, Barnabas "Bas" Suebu and Alex Hessegem had won with 354,763 votes, versus 333,629 for Enembe and his running mate Robby Aitauraw. The Golkar ticket John Ibo/Pascalis Kosay received 258,427 votes, former vice Governor Constant Karma and Donatus Motte got 112,032 votes, while Henk Wabiser/Simon Inaury brought up the rear with 67,678 votes. ¶9. (SBU) Enembe, who alleges vote inflation in three districts in Yahukimo regency, has said that he will seek redress through the courts. According to some press reports, John Ibo has also said he does not accept the outcome. Publicly, Suebu is refraining from posturing as the winner, sending concilatory signals to his opponents and saying that the appeals process must run its course first. ¶10. (C) Privately, Suebu is confident of victory, noting to poloff in a March 31 meeting in Jayapura that he had carried 14 of Papua's 20 regencies. Suebu, a former Suharto-era governor of Papua, said that his priorities as governor would be improving competence and honesty with regard to local government, especially with regard to administration of Special Autonomy funds. These, he said, must reach the village level in order to improve people's lives. Suebu said that the international community could play a useful role in this project, and that he would welcome a greater involvement by international donors in development and good governance projects. Suebu refused to endorse the plan being studied by the Papuan Provincial Parliament and Papuan People's Council to "return" the Special Autonomy program to Jakarta; this was legally meaningless, impractical, and self-defeating. He commented, however, that some national leaders "fear" the Special Autonomy Law as potentially too empowering to Papuans and thereby stoking separatism. The Special Autonomy Law, Suebu said, was passed during the reform period as a panicked effort to forestall burgeoning Papuan separatism; now that the sense of emergency has diminished, Jakarta is no longer deeply committed to it. Suebu expressed incomprehension at recent calls to close Freeport, saying "How are you going to get milk if you kill the cow?" Comment -------------- ¶11. (C) Papua's two provinces organized and held local elections, and the large majority of registered Papuan voters went to the polls, despite the dire predictions in some quarters of boycott and violence. That the notorious Yorrys Raweyai met with a sound defeat, despite backing by the powerful Golkar party, is one positive outcome. Thus far, the electoral disputes are similar in scope and tone to those witnessed in many other local elections over the past year. The chances appear remote that the courts overturn either result, even though the winning margin in Papua Province is not significant. We anticipate both Suebu and Atururi will be sworn in by late April or early May. PASCOE