ACEH: FRONT RUNNERS IN ELECTION

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 JAKARTA 013426 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS Consulate Medan # 37, 2006 E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL KDEM KHUM ASEC ID SUBJECT: ACEH: FRONT RUNNERS IN ELECTION ¶1. (U) Summary: As the official campaign period winds down, no pair of candidates has taken a decisive lead in the race to become Aceh Governor and Vice Governor. Three pairs of candidates -- Malek Raden and Fuad Zakaria, Humam Hamid and Hasbi Abdullah, and Azwar Abubakar and Nasir Djamil -- have pulled ahead of the other five competitors. Irwandi Yusuf and Muhammad Nazar are a distant fourth place, but gained ground after GAM leadership decided to withdraw formal support for Hamid and become neutral in the race. All candidates are promising essentially the same thing: peace and prosperity. In private meetings, however, a more nuanced picture emerges and differences become apparent in their views on critical issues ranging from the Law on Governing Aceh (LOGA) and reintegration to implementation of Syariah Law - issues of critical importance to Aceh's future. End Summary. A Three-Way Race -------------- ¶2. (SBU) An International Foundation for Election Systems (IFES) poll in late November, revealed that only three pairs of candidates can claim more than 10 percent of likely voters: Humam Hamid, who is affiliated with United Development Party (PPP),with 16.8 percent; Malek Raden, the Golkar candidate, with 14.1 percent; and Azwar Abubakar, a former acting governor affiliated with the National Mandate Party (PAN),with 13.5 percent. Irwandi Yusuf, a former GAM leader running as an independent, came in a distant fourth place with 7.8 percent. Given that more than a third of likely voters could not or would not tell surveyors whom they planned to support, there are enough voters in play to put any of the candidates over the 25-percent threshold needed to win by plurality. ¶3. (SBU) These survey results confirm what most Acehnese politicians, ulamas, journalists, and intellectuals have been telling us for weeks: the election will come down to these pairs of candidates. Many of these same observers, however, told us over the last week that GAM's withdrawing of its endorsement of Hamid and declaring neutrality in the race has given Irwandi Yusuf's campaign some much-needed momentum. (Note: After several GAM commanders threatened to break ranks over against GAM's endorsement of Hamid, Malek Mahmoud declared GAM neutral in the race to prevent the split from deepening.) Although still unlikely, a last- minute surge could thrust Yusuf into contention. A more likely outcome, however, is that Yusuf may siphon away enough of the pro-Hamid GAM vote to cost Hamid the election, particularly if there is no runoff election when GAM sympathizers can rally around a single candidate. Campaign promises -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Based on stump speeches, it is often difficult to tell candidates apart as all the candidates make essentially the same promises: peace and prosperity for all. During the last several weeks, however, we have spoken with the candidates about their views and programs. On critical issues ranging from the Law on Governing Aceh and reintegration to Syariah law implementation, there are subtle but important distinctions among the candidates. Peace and Reintegration -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Views on the peace process and reintegration of former rebels vary considerably among the candidates. Raden and Yusuf hold the most extreme, and opposed, positions, and Abubakar and Hamid fall in between those poles. ¶6. (SBU) Malek Raden believes that the Indonesian government fulfilled the commitments it made in the Helsinki MOU as well as can be reasonably expected. In his view, government programs undertaken through bodies like the Aceh Reintegration Board are important, but there are practical limits to what these targeted programs can accomplish in the longer term. While Raden is careful not to say that he opposes additional reintegration activities, he appears to believe the election represents the culmination of the reconciliation process. In the future, programs to benefit the entire province, such as his plan to improve public health and education, are more important to lasting peace JAKARTA 00013426 002 OF 003 than programs focused narrowly on ex-combatants. ¶7. (SBU) Irwandi Yusuf takes the opposite view. He worries that many people consider the election and the departure of the Aceh Monitoring Mission to be the end of the peace process. In reality, he says, Jakarta has not fulfilled its commitment to compensate GAM combatants or victims of conflict and not enough has been done to build trust between the Acehnese and the military. (Note: Yusuf opposes the use of the word "reintegration" because it implies that GAM members are not part of mainstream Acehnese society.) ¶8. (SBU) Yusuf also sees a critical need to bring together GAM, civil society, the government, and military in a new forum to replace the Commission on Security Arrangements (COSA),which was previously chaired by AMM and terminates when AMM departs on December 15. Unless this is done, he says, there will be no mechanism to discuss the inevitable problems and misunderstandings that will arise between GAM and the security forces, and no institutionalized setting for confidence building will exist. ¶9. (SBU) Humam Hamid and Azwar Abubakar take similar positions on reintegration and peace building. Both support ongoing reintegration activities and have well-defined plans to strengthen them further. Both candidates acknowledge that the provincial government will have to take the lead in providing additional resources for ex-combatants and victims of conflict because Jakarta is unlikely to provide further resources. Law Governing Aceh (LOGA) -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Discussion of the LOGA diminished significantly as the election season began. Among the gubernatorial candidates, only Irwandi Yusuf insists publicly that it must be amended to conform to the MOU. In private, Hamid is non- committal about the LOGA and, while he does not want to offend GAM on the issue, appears willing to accept the existing law. Abubakar criticizes the way the LOGA was developed but does not appear inclined to make an issue of it. He told us privately that he feels some of GAM's criticisms of the LOGA amount to little more than "commas." Raden's views on the LOGA are not well known, but it is widely believed that he would be unwilling to expend political capital in Jakarta trying to revise it. Enforcement of Syariah Law -------------- ¶11. (SBU) Although none of the candidates talks publicly about implementation of Syariah law, it is one issue in which differences among the candidates are most stark. In private, Irwandi Yusuf expresses contempt for the way Syariah law is enforced. He told us recently that the implementation of Syariah law has interrupted the "natural development" of Islam in the province and that it was undermining Aceh's international reputation. In the event he becomes governor, he promises to reform and cut back the Office of Syariah Affairs and the religious police. ¶12. (SBU) Abubakar, by contrast, takes a hard line on Syariah law. He told us pushing the religious police to all corners of Aceh is one of his proudest accomplishments as Acting Governor. He discounts the notion that strict enforcement of Syariah law might hurt the economy by frightening tourists and investors. On the contrary, he said, it is only through "resolute" enforcement of Syariah law that the Acehnese can overcome their problems. ¶13. (SBU) Hamid is uncomfortable with the way that Syariah has been implemented and said that he would like to see the focus of the religious police change from enforcement to teaching. "Hard methods," such as those used by the religious police, he argued, cause "anger without leading to greater devotion." ¶14. (SBU) Raden's detailed views about Syariah are unknown but are believed to moderate and consistent with his Muhammadiyah background. His running mate for vice governor, Fuad Zakaria, told us that he was not aware of problems with the Office of Syariah Affairs or the religious police; it JAKARTA 00013426 003 OF 003 did not appear that Syariah was even on his radar screen. Pascoe