PKS SUFFERS ELECTORAL SETBACK

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 JAKARTA 013419

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/05/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL KDEM KISL ID
SUBJECT: PKS SUFFERS ELECTORAL SETBACK

REF: A. JAKARTA 11376 (JAKARTA GOVERNOR'S RACE)

B. JAKARTA 13361 (MEGAWATI SURVEYS INDONESIA)

C. JAKARTA 06017 (LOCALIZED SHARIAH LAW)

Classified By: Classified by Political Officer Eric W. Kneedler, reason
1.4 (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) The ascendant Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) fell just
short in its attempt to register a defining victory in the
November 26 Banten provincial governor's race. The Banten
Electoral Commission certified the election results on
December 1 and declared Golkar's Ratu Atut Chosiyah the
winner over PKS legislator Zulkieflimansyah by a margin of
40.2 percent to 32.9 percent. By fighting off a surprisingly
strong challenge from Zulkieflimansyah and two less
competitive candidates, Ratu Atut Chosiyah became Indonesia's
first directly elected female governor. In what might serve
as a harbinger of future selective cooperation between
Indonesia's two largest secular parties, the Indonesian
Democratic Party - Struggle (PDI-P) joined forces with Golkar
to back Chosiyah's candidacy and keep the strategic Banten
governorship out of PKS hands. PKS has trumpeted
Zulkieflimansyah's strong showing as a victory for the party
given the low expectations going into the race and the severe
disparity in resources between PKS and the competing parties.
End Summary.

THE ELECTION
--------------


2. (C) The election derived most of its significance from the
fact that Banten borders the capital city of Jakarta and was
therefore viewed by some as a bellwether for next year's more
coveted prize: the Jakarta governorship (Ref A). Going into
the election, conventional wisdom held that Golkar and PDI-P
were the two strongest parties in the province, an impression
that was bolstered by the fact that they possessed the
highest number of seats in the provincial legislature, with
16 and 12 seats respectively. PKS was viewed as the third
strongest party with 11 seats, and the Democratic Party (PD)
followed with 8. Other, less tangible indicators suggested
that Banten, which only became a province in 2000, was
becoming more conservative and that a portion of the
electorate might opt to repudiate the secular parties in
favor of an Islamist party like PKS. Tangerang, Banten's
most populous municipality, was in some ways a case study for
this phenomenon. In 2005, Tangerang legislators pushed
through a series of aggressive "anti-immorality" regulations
which, among other things, banned public kissing and the sale
of alcohol everywhere but in star-rated hotels (Ref C).


3. (C) Ratu Atut Chosiyah served as the interim Governor of
Banten throughout the campaign and was considered a
prohibitive favorite every step of the way. Not only did she
enjoy all the trappings of incumbency, but the Golkar
politician also managed to secure the endorsement of PDI-P,
thereby locking up the financial and logistical support of
Indonesia's two largest and most formidable political
parties. Chosiyah also enjoyed celebrity status for her role
as "Founding Mother" of Banten, a status she was accorded
after helping to split Banten away from West Java to form the
independent province of Banten. In addition to
Zulkieflimansyah, Chosiyah also faced Tryana Sjam'un from the
United Development Party (PPP) and Irsjad Djuwaeli, who
enjoyed the support of both PD and the National Awakening
Party (PKB).


4. (C) In the event, Chosiyah registered a relatively
comfortable victory despite a strong performance by
Zulkieflimansyah and PKS. Not only did she become
Indonesia's first directly elected Governor, but she also
became the highest ranking directly elected female official
in Indonesian history. Voting observers reported the
November 26 election took place without incident, though
voter turnout was very low by Indonesian standards - 58%
according to the Banten Electoral Commission (KPUD). The
official results, according to KPUD:

Ratu Atut Chosiyah (Golkar-PDI-P).....40.2%
Zulkieflimansyah (PKS)................32.9%
Tryana Sjam'un (PPP)..................22.7%
Irsjad Djuwaeli (PD-PKB)..............4.1%

PKS AND ITS CANDIDATE LOSE, BUT BOTH DECLARE VICTORY

JAKARTA 00013419 002 OF 003


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5. (C) Zulkieflimansyah was conflicted about his candidacy at
the outset. In late August, just before he officially threw
his hat in the ring, he admitted to us that his primary
concern about entering the race was that "he might actually
win." He was ambivalent at best even after officially
becoming a candidate, and did not hesitate to admit that the
challenges he could face as governor would far surpass the
hurdles he encountered as a member of Parliament. In
addition to his misgivings about the challenges of governing
the province, he also seemed to recognize that he was
embarking on a "mission impossible" of sorts; he knew his
odds of victory were exceedingly slim. One of
Zulkieflimansyah's best friends, fellow PKS legislator Fahri
Hamzah confided to us on the eve of the election that
ultimately Zulkieflimansyah opted to run out of fealty to his
party and the conviction that he would not be damaged
politically if he lost an "un-winnable" race. In the
unlikely event of victory, Fahri continued, Zulkieflimansyah
knew that the political dividends would be enormous and that
he would immediately be catapulted onto a short list of
national political icons.


6. (C) On November 27, shortly after exit polling and quick
counts began to suggest Zulkieflimansyah's gubernatorial bid
fell short, the PKS machine started to spin the results, with
more than a little credibility, as a victory for the party.
Party luminaries were quick to point out that
Zulkieflimansyah only entered the race in September, that he
was severely outgunned by all the other candidates in the
resource war, and that his opponent was an incumbent with the
backing of Indonesia's two biggest parties. When we talked
with Zulkieflimansyah himself on November 28, he stuck to
those same talking points and claimed that PKS would be able
to get "considerable mileage" from its strong showing.

GOLKAR/PDI-P: STRANGE BEDFELLOWS
--------------


7. (C) Ratu Atut Chosiyah may have recorded her most
impressive victory before the general election, when she beat
Indonesian actress Marissa Haque and a cast of other PDI-P
cadres to secure the nomination of PDI-P's Banten chapter
(Note: Marissa subsequently defected from PDI-P and ran as
Zulkieflimansyah's running mate). By locking up both Golkar
and PDI-P's support, she created an air of inevitability
about her candidacy that muted coverage of the race and
ultimately probably affected voter turnout as well.


8. (C) PDI-P's endorsement was interpreted by the Indonesian
media and the political elite in one of two ways, either as:
a) a pragmatic acknowledgment of the fact that PDI-P did not
have the firepower to challenge Ratu Atut Chosiyah, or b) a
selfless act of nationalism designed to deny PKS a strategic
foothold on Jakarta's doorstep. For her part, former
President Megawati Soekarnoputri endorsed the second of these
two explanations in a recent meeting with the Ambassador (Ref
B). The most plausible explanation for the alliance probably
lies somewhere in the middle. The party likely feared that
it would field a candidate that was not strong enough to win,
but strong enough to pull voters away from Chosiyah and
dilute the secular vote to the point that PKS might win.
Ultimately the thought of a PKS victory would have proven
much less palatable to PDI-P decision makers than the
prospect of a marriage of convenience with Golkar.

COMMENT
--------------


9. (C) PKS and Zulkieflimansyah recorded a moral victory of
sorts by turning in its strongest ever performance in a
provincial election and standing toe to toe with the
Golkar/PDI-P alliance. The party masterfully lowered
expectations going into the race by downplaying its chances
and assuming a stealthy, below the radar approach to the
campaign. On the other hand, PKS lost an election in an
increasingly conservative province and failed to capitalize
on an opportunity to steal a crucial governor's office from
Indonesia's established political heavyweights. It is one
thing to lower expectations and quite another to fail to
mount the best possible campaign. Winning the election would
have been difficult under the best of circumstances, but the
party unnecessarily handicapped itself by nominating its
candidate too late in the game, neglecting to dedicate the
resources required to win, and perhaps even underestimating
its own competitiveness.

JAKARTA 00013419 003 OF 003




PASCOE